Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-ndmmz Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-21T10:08:30.565Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Evolution in a pelagic planktic system: A paleobiologic test of models of multispecies evolution

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 April 2016

Antoni Hoffman  and
Jennifer A. Kitchell
Antoni Hoffman
Affiliation:
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706
Jennifer A. Kitchell
Affiliation:
Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Two rival models of evolution in multispecies systems are tested against empirical species-level data. The two models are the Red Queen model of Van Valen as reformulated by Stenseth and Maynard Smith, which assumes that evolution is driven principally by biotic interactions, and the Stationary model of Stenseth and Maynard Smith, which assumes that evolution is propelled primarily by abiotic factors and will cease in the absence of changes in abiotic parameters. Testing refers to the models' predictions regarding the behavior of extinction and origination rates, and assumptions regarding equilibrium diversity and a constant effective environment. The data set includes the dates of origination and extinction for all coccolith, planktic foraminifer, and radiolarian species recorded in the Oligocene through Holocene, and all planktic diatom and silicoflagellate and ebridian species recorded in the Middle Miocene through Holocene in 111 DSDP sites of the low- to mid-latitude Pacific Ocean.

The condition of stable specific age distribution over geologic time is met, which allows one to perform survivorship analysis on extinction rates. The best fit survivorship curve is a decreasing function of age for both coccolith and foraminifer species, and an increasing function of age for radiolarian species. Neither model predicts age dependence of the probability of extinction. The small disparity between these curves and age-independent curves for each group indicates, however, that an age-independent interpretation of extinction probability is a reasonable first approximation. Rates of origination are analyzed in terms of species accretion, introduced to represent the cumulative origination of species within a higher taxon as a function of the age or duration of the community. Accretion analysis indicates that the probability of accretion is both diversity-dependent and absolute time-dependent.

The assumption of a constant effective environment is tested by polycohort analysis and nonparametric logistic regression analysis of true species cohorts. Both techniques indicate considerable variation in extinction probability over geologic time. When the predictions of the two evolutionary models are adjusted to take this variation into account, the results of both survivorship and accretion analysis seem to conform more closely to the predictions of the Red Queen than to the Stationary model. However, as the speed with which the effective environment changes is increased relative to speciation-extinction rates, it becomes increasingly difficult to differentiate patterns predicted by the two models. The assumption of equilibrium diversity can be neither corroborated nor rejected, since the species-level data are compatible with both an equilibrium and a nonequilibrium view of diversity behavior. Reservations concerning the basic assumptions of both models indicate an ultimate test requires that both models be reformulated to make precise and distinctive predictions under a varying effective environment.

Type
Articles
Information
Paleobiology , Volume 10 , Issue 1 , Winter 1984 , pp. 9 - 33
Copyright
Copyright © The Paleontological Society 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Literature Cited

Anstey, R. L. 1978. Taxonomic survivorship and morphologic complexity in Paleozoic bryozoan genera. Paleobiology. 4:407–418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arnold, A. J. 1982. Species survivorship in the Cenozoic Globigerinida. Proc. Third N. A. Paleontol. Conv. 1:9–12.Google Scholar
Barron, J. A., Poore, R. Z., and Wolfart, R. 1981. Biostratigraphic summary, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 63. Initial Reports DSDP. 63:927–940.Google Scholar
Berger, W. H., Vincent, E., and Thierstein, H. R. 1981. The deep-sea record: major steps in Cenozoic ocean evolution. Soc. Econ. Paleontol. Mineral. Spec. Publ. 32:489–504.Google Scholar
Blank, R. G. and Ellis, C. H. 1982. The probable range concept applied to the biostratigraphy of marine microfossils. J. Geoi. 90:415–434.Google Scholar
Bukry, D. 1981. Pacific Coast coccolith stratigraphy between Point Conception and Cabo Corrientes, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 63. Initial Reports DSDP. 63:445–472.Google Scholar
Carr, T. R. and Kitchell, J. A. 1980. Dynamics of taxonomic diversity. Paleobiology. 6:427–443.Google Scholar
Castrodeza, C. 1979. Nonprogressive evolution, the Red Queen Hypothesis and the balance of nature. Acta Biotheor. 28:11–18.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Charlesworth, B., Lande, R., and Slatkin, M. 1982. A neo-Darwinian commentary on macroevolution. Evolution 36:474–495.Google Scholar
Connell, J. H. and Sousa, W. P. 1983. On the evidence needed to judge ecological stability or persistence. Am. Nat. 121:789–824.Google Scholar
Craven, P. and Wahba, G. 1979. Smoothing noisy data with spline functions: estimating the correct degree of smoothing by the method of generalized cross-validation. Numer. Math. 31:377–403.Google Scholar
De Boor, C. 1978. A Practical Guide to Splines. Springer-Verlag; New York.Google Scholar
Elandt-Johnson, R. C. and Johnson, N. L. 1980. Survival Models and Data Analysis. Wiley; New York.Google Scholar
Eldredge, N. 1982. Phenomenological levels and evolutionary rates. Syst. Zool. 31:338–347.Google Scholar
Ellis, C. H. 1982. Calcareous nannoplankton biostratigraphy, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 60. Initial Reports DSDP. 60:507–535.Google Scholar
Epstein, B. 1960a. Tests for the validity of the assumption that the underlying distribution of life is exponential. I. Technometrics. 2:83–101.Google Scholar
Epstein, B. 1960b. Tests for the validity of the assumption that the underlying distribution of life is exponential. II. Technometrics. 2:167–183.Google Scholar
Feller, W. 1957. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications. Wiley; New York.Google Scholar
Fisher, R. A. 1930. The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection. Oxford Univ. Press; Oxford.Google Scholar
Flessa, K. W. 1979. Extinction. Pp. 300–305. In: Fairbridge, R. W. and Jablonski, D., eds. The Encyclopedia of Paleontology, Dowden, Hutchinson & Ross; Stroudsburg, Pa.Google Scholar
Flessa, K. W. and Levinton, J. S. 1975. Phanerozoic diversity patterns: tests for randomness. J. Geol. 83:239–248.Google Scholar
Foin, T. C., Valentine, J. W., and Ayala, F. J. 1975. Extinction of taxa and Van Valen's Law. Nature. 257:514–515.Google Scholar
Futuyma, D. J. and Slatkin, M. 1983. The study of coevolution. Pp. 459–464. In: Futuyma, D. J. and Slatkin, M., eds. Coevolution. Sinauer; Sunderland, Mass.Google Scholar
Hallam, A. 1976. The Red Queen dethroned. Nature. 259:12–13.Google Scholar
Hoffman, A. 1981. Stochastic versus deterministic approach to paleontology: the question of scaling or metaphysics? N. Jb. Geol. Paläontol. Abh. 162:80–96.Google Scholar
Keller, G. 1981. Miocene biochronology and paleoceanography of the North Pacific. Mar. Micropaleontol. 6:535–551.Google Scholar
Keller, G. and Barron, J. A. 1983. Paleoceanographic implications of Miocene deep-sea hiatuses. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 94:590–613.Google Scholar
Kelley, P. H. 1983. Evolutionary patterns of eight Chesapeake Group molluscs: evidence for the model of punctuated equilibria. J. Paleontol. 57:581–598.Google Scholar
Kitchell, J. A. 1983. Biotic interactions and siliceous marine phytoplankton: an ecological and evolutionary perspective. Pp. 285–329. In: Tevesz, M. J. S. and McCall, P. L., eds. Biotic Interactions in Recent and Fossil Benthic Communities. Plenum; New York.Google Scholar
Kitchell, J. A. and Carr, T. R. 1984. Nonequilibrium model of diversification: faunal turnover dynamics. In: Valentine, J. W., ed. Phanerozoic Diversity Patterns: Profiles in Macroevolution. Princeton Univ. Press; Princeton, N.J.Google Scholar
Krimbas, C. B. 1984. On adaptation, neodarwinian tautology and population fitness. Evol. Biol. (in press).Google Scholar
LaBrecque, J. L., Kent, D. V., and Caude, S. C. 1977. Revised magnetic polarity time scale for Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic time. Geology. 5:330–335.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewontin, R. C. 1978. Adaptation. Sci. Am. 239:213–230.Google Scholar
MacArthur, R. H. 1969. Patterns of communities in the tropics. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 1:19–30.Google Scholar
MacArthur, R. H. and Wilson, E. O. 1967. The Theory of Island Biogeography. Princeton Univ. Press; Princeton, N.J.Google Scholar
McCune, A. R. 1982. On the fallacy of constant extinction rates. Evolution. 39:610–614.Google Scholar
MacDougall, I., Saemundsson, K., Johannesson, H., Watkins, N. D., and Kristjannson, I. 1977. Extension of the geomagnetic polarity time scale to 6.5 m.y.: K-Ar dating, geological and paleomagnetic study of a 3,500 m lava succession in western Iceland. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 88:1–15.Google Scholar
Malmgren, B. A. and Kennett, J. P. 1981. Phyletic gradualism in a Late Cenozoic planktonic foraminiferal lineage; DSDP Site 284, southwest Pacific. Paleobiology. 7:230–240.Google Scholar
Mann, N. R., Schafer, R. E., and Singpurwaila, N. D. 1974. Methods for Statistical Analysis of Reliability and Life Data. Wiley; New York.Google Scholar
Martini, E. 1981. Oligocene to Recent calcareous nannoplankton from the Philippine Sea, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 59. Initial Reports DSDP. 59:547–565.Google Scholar
Martini, E., Heiman, M. E., and Theyer, F. 1981. Synthesis of Oligocene to Quarternary biostratigraphy of the Philippine Sea, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 59. Initial Reports DSDP. 59:587–593.Google Scholar
Matthews, R. K. and Poore, R. Z. 1980. Tertiary 18O record and glacioeustatic sea-level fluctuations. Geology. 8:501–504.Google Scholar
May, R. M. 1973. Complexity and Stability in Model Ecosystems. Princeton Univ. Press; Princeton, N.J.Google Scholar
Maynard Smith, J. 1976. A comment on the Red Queen. Am. Nat. 110:325–330.Google Scholar
Maynard Smith, J. 1982. Evolution—sudden or gradual? Pp. 125–128. In: Maynard Smith, J., ed. Evolution Now. W. H. Freeman; San Francisco.Google Scholar
Okada, H. and Bukry, D. 1980. Supplementary modification and introduction of code numbers to the low latitude coccolith biostratigraphic zonation (Bukry 1973, 1975). Mar. Micropaleontol. 5:321–325.Google Scholar
Pinder, J. E. III., Wiener, J. G., and Smith, M. H. 1978. The Weibull distribution: a new method of summarizing survivorship data. Ecology. 59:175–179.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. 1975. Taxonomic survivorship curves and Van Valen's Law. Paleobiology. 1:82–96.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. 1978. Cohort analysis of generic survivorship. Paleobiology. 4:1–15.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. 1983. Biogeographic extinction: a feasibility test. Geol. Soc. Am. Spec. Paper. 190:277–281.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. and Crick, R. E. 1981. Evolution of single characters in the Jurassic ammonite Kosmoceras. Paleobiology. 7:200–215.Google Scholar
Raup, D. M. and Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1982. Mass extinction in the marine fossil record. Science. 215:1501–1503.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Raup, D. M., Sepkoski, J. J. Jr., and Stigler, S. M. 1983. Mass extinctions in the fossil record (Reply to Quinn). Science. 219:1240–1241.Google Scholar
Riedel, W. R. and Sanfilippo, A. 1978. Stratigraphy and evolution of tropical Cenozoic radiolarians. Micropaleontology. 24:61–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenzweig, M. L. 1975. On continental steady states of species diversity. Pp. 121–140. In: Cody, M. L. and Diamond, J. M., eds. Ecology and Evolution of Communities. Belknap Press; Cambridge, Mass.Google Scholar
Salthe, S. M. 1975. Some comments on Van Valen's law of extinction. Paleobiology. 1:556–558.Google Scholar
Sancetta, C. 1978. Neogene Pacific microfossils and paleoceanography. Mar. Micropaleontol. 3:347–376.Google Scholar
Sancetta, C. 1979. Paleogene Pacific microfossils and paleoceanography. Mar. Micropaleontol. 4:363–398.Google Scholar
Sanfilippo, A., Westberg, M. J., and Riedel, W. R. 1981. Cenozoic radiolarians at Site 462, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 61, western tropical Pacific. Initial Reports DSDP. 61:495–505.Google Scholar
Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1975. Stratigraphic biases in the analysis of taxonomic survivorship curves. Paleobiology. 1:343–355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1978. A kinetic model of Phanerozoic taxonomic diversity. I. Analysis of marine orders. Paleobiology. 4:223–251.Google Scholar
Sepkoski, J. J. Jr. 1979. A kinetic model of Phanerozoic taxonomic diversity. II. Early Phanerozoic families and multiple equilibria. Paleobiology. 5:222–251.Google Scholar
Simberloff, D. S. 1972. Models in biogeography. Pp. 160–191. In: Schopf, T.J. M., ed. Models in Paleobiology. W. H. Freeman; San Francisco.Google Scholar
Simberloff, D. S. 1983. When is an island community in equilibrium? Science. 220:1275–1277.Google Scholar
Stanley, S. M. 1982. Macroevolution and the fossil record. Evolution. 36:460–473.Google Scholar
Stenseth, N. C. 1979. Where have all the species gone? On the nature of extinction and the Red Queen Hypothesis. Oikos. 33:196–227.Google Scholar
Stenseth, N. C. and Maynard Smith, J. 1984. Coevolution in ecosystems: Red Queen evolution or stasis? Evolution. in press.Google Scholar
Theyer, F., Mato, C. Y., and Hammond, S. R. 1978. Paleomagnetic and geochronologic calibration of latest Oligocene to Pliocene radiolarian events, equatorial Pacific. Mar. Micropaleontol. 3:377–395.Google Scholar
Van Andel, T. M., Heath, G. R., and Moore, T. C. 1975. Cenozoic history and paleoceanography of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean: a regional synthesis of Deep Sea Drilling Project data. Geol. Soc. Am. Mem. 193:1–134.Google Scholar
Vandemeer, J. 1981. Elementary Mathematical Ecology. Wiley; New York.Google Scholar
Van Valen, L. 1973. A new evolutionary law. Evol. Theory. 1:1–30.Google Scholar
Van Valen, L. 1975. Reply to Foin et al. Nature. 257:515–516.Google Scholar
Van Valen, L. 1976a. Energy and evolution. Evol. Theory. 1:179–229.Google Scholar
Van Valen, L. 1976b. The Red Queen lives. Nature. 260:575.Google Scholar
Van Valen, L. 1977. The Red Queen. Am. Nat. 111:809–810.Google Scholar
Van Valen, L. 1979. Taxonomic survivorship curves. Evol. Theory. 4:129–142.Google Scholar
Van Valen, L. 1980. Evolution as a zero-sum game for energy. Evol. Theory. 4:289–300.Google Scholar
Vrba, E. S. 1980. Evolution, species and fossils: how does life evolve? S. Afr. J. Sci. 76:61–84.Google Scholar
Webb, S. D. 1969. Extinction-origination equilibrium in Late Cenozoic land mammals of North America. Evolution. 23:688–702.Google Scholar
Wegman, E. J. and Wright, I. W. 1983. Splines in statistics. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:351–365.Google Scholar
Wei, K-Y. and Kennett, J. P. 1983. Nonconstant extinction rates of Neogene planktonic foraminifera. Nature 305:218–220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whittaker, R. H. 1977. Evolution of species diversity in land communities. Evol. Biol. 10:1–67.Google Scholar
Wilson, E. O. 1969. The species equilibrium. Brookhaven Symp. Biol. 22:38–47.Google Scholar
Wolfart, R. 1981. Neogene radiolarians from the Eastern North Pacific (off Alta and Baja California), Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 63. Initial Reports DSDP. 63:473–506.Google Scholar
Woodruff, F., Savin, S. M., and Douglas, R. G. 1981. Miocene stable isotope record: a detailed deep Pacific Ocean study and its paleoclimatic implications. Science. 212:665–668.Google Scholar
Wright, S. 1931. Evolution in Mendelian populations. Genetics. 16:97–159.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed