Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-8zxtt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-11T10:23:58.077Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Empirically Evaluating the Countermajoritarian Difficulty

Public Opinion, State Policy, and Judicial Review before Roe v. Wade

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2022

Jonathan P. Kastellec*
Affiliation:
Princeton University
*
Contact the author at jkastell@princeton.edu.

Abstract

I conduct a quantitative evaluation of the “countermajoritarian difficulty” by examining the relationship between public opinion, state policy, and judicial review in constitutional challenges to state abortion statutes in the period before Roe v. Wade. I find that state and lower federal court judges tended to invalidate statutes in states with high levels of public support for moving policy away from the status quo, and judges did not strike down statutes in states where majorities firmly supported the status quo. These results suggest the importance of creating a role for state and lower federal courts in evaluating the countermajoritarian difficulty.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 2016 by the Law and Courts Organized Section of the American Political Science Association. All rights reserved.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I thank Or Bassok, Ted Englehardt, Barry Friedman, Matthew Hall, Jeff Lax, Scott Lemieux, Stefanie Lindquist, Herschel Nachlis, and Keith Whittington for helpful comments and Christopher Mooney for generously sharing his data. Replication materials can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EN0Z6B.

References

Adams, Greg D. 1997. “Abortion: Evidence of an Issue Evolution.American Journal of Political Science 41:718–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bassok, Or, and Yoav Dotan. 2013. “Solving the Countermajoritarian Difficulty?International Journal of Constitutional Law 11 (1): 13–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berry, Chris, Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, and Jacob Gersen. 2013. “Pro-Majoritarian Courts.” Working paper, Harris School, University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Bickel, Alexander M. 1962. The Least Dangerous Branch: The Supreme Court at the Bar of Politics. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Burns, Gene. 2005. The Moral Veto: Framing Contraception, Abortion, and Cultural Pluralism in the United States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, Tom S. Clark, and Jason P. Kelly. 2014. “Judicial Selection and Death Penalty Decisions.American Political Science Review 108 (1): 23–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmines, Edward G., Jessica C. Gerrity, and Michael W. Wagner. 2010. “How Abortion Became a Partisan Issue: Media Coverage of the Interest Group–Political Party Connection.Politics and Policy 38 (6): 1135–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casillas, Christopher J., Peter K. Enns, and Patrick C. Wohlfarth. 2011. “How Public Opinion Constrains the U.S. Supreme Court.American Journal of Political Science 55 (1): 74–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casper, Jonathan D. 1976. “The Supreme Court and National Policy Making.American Political Science Review 70:50–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, Tom S. 2011. The Limits of Judicial Independence. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Craig, Barbara H., and David M. O’Brien. 1993. Abortion and American Politics. Chatham, NJ: Chatham.Google Scholar
Croley, Steven P. 1995. “The Majoritarian Difficulty: Elective Judiciaries and the Rule of Law.University of Chicago Law Review 62:689–794.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahl, Robert. 1957. “Decision-Making in a Democracy: The Supreme Court as National Policy-Maker.Journal of Public Law 6 (2): 279–95.Google Scholar
Epstein, Lee, and Joseph F. Kobylka. 1992. The Supreme Court and Legal Change: Abortion and the Death Penalty. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Epstein, Lee, and Andrew D. Martin. 2010. “Does Public Opinion Influence the Supreme Court? Possibly Yes (but We’re Not Sure Why).University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law 13:263–81.Google Scholar
Eskridge, William N. Jr., 2005. “Pluralism and Distrust: How Courts Can Support Democracy by Lowering the Stakes of Politics.Yale Law Journal 114:1279–1328.Google Scholar
Fontana, David, and Donald Braman. 2012. “Judicial Backlash or Just Backlash? Evidence from a National Experiment.Columbia Law Review 112:731–99.Google Scholar
Friedman, Barry. 1993. “Dialogue and Judicial Review.Michigan Law Review 93:577–682.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, Barry. 2009. The Will of the People: How Public Opinion Has Influenced the Supreme Court and Shaped the Meaning of the Constitution. New York: Farrar, Strauss & Giroux.Google Scholar
Frost, Amanda, and Stefanie A. Lindquist. 2010. “Countering the Majoritarian Difficulty.Virginia Law Review 110:719–97.Google Scholar
Frymer, Paul. 2003. “Acting When Elected Officials Won’t: Federal Courts and Civil Rights Enforcement in U.S. Labor Unions, 1935–85.American Political Science Review 97 (3): 483–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garrow, David J. 1994. Liberty and Sexuality: The Right to Privacy and the Making of Roe v. Wade. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Giles, Michael W., Bethany Blackstone, and Richard L. Vining. 2008. “The Supreme Court in American Democracy: Unraveling the Linkages between Public Opinion and Judicial Decision Making.Journal of Politics 70 (2): 293–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ginsburg, Ruth Bader. 1984. “Some Thoughts on Autonomy and Equality in Relation to Roe v. Wade.North Carolina Law Review 63:375–86.Google Scholar
Graber, Mark A. 1993. “The Nonmajoritarian Difficulty: Legislative Deference to the Judiciary.Studies in American Political Development 7 (1): 35–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graber, Mark A. 2005. “Constructing Judicial Review.Annual Review of Political Science 8:425–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greenhouse, Linda, and Reva B. Siegel. 2011. “Before (and After) Roe v. Wade: New Questions about Backlash.Yale Law Journal 120:2028–87.Google Scholar
Hall, Matthew E. 2012. “Rethinking Regime Politics.Law and Social Inquiry 37 (4): 878–907.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, Matthew E., and Ryan C. Black. 2013. “Keeping the Outliers in Line? Judicial Review of State Laws by the U.S. Supreme Court.Social Science Quarterly 94 (2): 395–409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, Matthew E. K. 2011. The Nature of Supreme Court Power. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Johnson, D. W., P. Picard, and Bernard Quinn. 1974. Churches and Church Membership in the United States. Washington, DC: Glenmary Research Center.Google Scholar
Kastellec, Jonathan P., Jeffrey R. Lax, Michael Malecki, and Justin H. Phillips. 2015. “Polarizing the Electoral Connection: Partisan Representation in Supreme Court Confirmation Politics.Journal of Politics 77 (3): 787–804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keck, Thomas M. 2007. “Party Politics or Judicial Independence? The Regime Politics Literature Hits the Law Schools.Law and Social Inquiry 32 (3): 511–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keck, Thomas M. 2009. “Beyond Backlash: Assessing the Impact of Judicial Decisions on LGBT Rights.Law and Society Review 43 (1): 151–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klarman, Michael J. 1994. “How Brown Changed Race Relations: The Backlash Thesis.Journal of American History 81:81–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klarman, Michael J. 1997. “Majoritarian Judicial Review: The Entrenchment Problem.Georgetown Law Journal 85:491–554.Google Scholar
Klarman, Michael J. 2012. From the Closet to the Altar: Courts, Backlash, and the Struggle for Same-Sex Marriage. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Lain, Corinna Barrett. 2012. “Upside-Down Judicial Review.Georgetown Law Journal 101:113–83.Google Scholar
Langer, Laura, Meghan Leonard, and Andrea Polk. 2010. “Studying State Judicial Races in a Transformed Electoral Environment.” In The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, ed. Jan E. Leighley. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Justin H. Phillips. 2009a. “Gay Rights in the States: Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness.American Political Science Review 103 (3): 367–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Justin H. Phillips. 2009b. “How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in the States?American Journal of Political Science 53 (1): 107–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Justin H. Phillips. 2012. “The Democratic Deficit in the States.American Journal of Political Science 56 (1): 148–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leemann, Lucas, and Fabio Wasserfallen. 2014. “Extending the Use and Prediction Precision of Subnational Public Opinion Estimation.” Working paper, University College London.Google Scholar
Lemieux, Scott E. 2009. “Roe and the Politics of Backlash: Countermobilization against the Courts and Abortion Rights Claiming.” Working paper, College of Saint Rose.Google Scholar
Lemieux, Scott E., and George Lovell. 2010. “Legislative Defaults: Interbranch Power Sharing and Abortion Politics.Polity 42 (2): 210–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemieux, Scott E., and David J. Watkins. 2009. “Beyond the ‘Countermajoritarian Difficulty’: Lessons from Contemporary Democratic Theory.Polity 41 (1): 30–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liptak, Adam. 2014. “Both Sides in Gay Marriage Fight in Utah Agree: Supreme Court Should Hear Case.” New York Times, August 7.Google Scholar
Lovell, George I. 2003. Legislative Deferrals: Statutory Ambiguity, Judicial Power, and American Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Malecki, Michael, Jeffrey R. Lax, Andrew Gelman, and Wei Wang. 2014. “Multilevel Regression and Poststratification: An R Package.” https://github.com/malecki/mrp.Google Scholar
Marshall, Thomas R. 1989. Public Opinion and the Supreme Court. Boston: Unwin Hyman.Google Scholar
McGuire, Kevin T., and James A. Stimson. 2004. “The Least Dangerous Branch Revisited: New Evidence on Supreme Court Responsiveness to Public Preferences.Journal of Politics 66 (4): 1018–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mishler, William, and Reginald S. Sheehan. 1993. “The Supreme Court as a Countermajoritarian Institution? The Impact of Public Opinion on Supreme Court Decisions.American Political Science Review 87 (1): 87–101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mohr, James C. 1978. Abortion in America: The Origins and Evolution of National Policy, 1800–1900. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Mooney, Christopher Z. 2000. “The Decline of Federalism and the Rise of Morality-Policy Conflict in the United States.Publius: Journal of Federalism 30 (1): 171–88.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mooney, Christopher Z., and Mei-Hsein Lee. 1995. “Legislating Morality in the American States: The Case of Pre-Roe Abortion Regulation Reform.American Journal of Political Science 39 (3): 599–627.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Noel, Hans. 2013. Politicial Ideologies and Political Parties in America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Nossiff, Rosemary. 1994. “Why Justice Ginsburg Is Wrong about States Expanding Abortion Rights.PS: Political Science and Politics 27 (2): 227–31.Google Scholar
Nossiff, Rosemary. 2001. “Abortion Policy before Roe: Grassroots and Interest-Group Mobilization.Journal of Policy History 13 (4): 463–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Post, Robert, and Reva Siegel. 2007. “Roe Rage: Democratic Constitutionalism and Backlash.Harvard Civil Rights–Civil Liberties Law Review 42:373–433.Google Scholar
Pozen, David E. 2008. “The Irony of Judicial Elections.Columbia Law Review 108:265–330.Google Scholar
Roemer, Ruth. 1971. “Abortion Law Reform and Repeal: Legislative and Judicial Developments.American Journal of Public Health 61 (3): 500–509.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosenberg, Gerald N. 1991. The Hollow Hope: Can Courts Bring About Social Change? Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Rubin, Eva R. 1987. Abortion, Politics, and the Courts: Roe v. Wade and Its Aftermath. Westport, CT: Greenwood.Google Scholar
Silverstein, Gordon. 2009. Law’s Allure: How Law Shapes, Constrains, Saves, and Kills Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solum, Lawrence. 2014. “Legal Theory Lexicon 047: The Counter-majoritarian Difficulty.” http://lsolum.typepad.com/legal_theory_lexicon/2005/06/legal_theory_le_1.html.Google Scholar
Sunstein, Cass R. 1991. “Three Civil Rights Fallacies.California Law Review 79:751–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tatalovich, Raymond, and Byron W. Daynes. 1981. The Politics of Abortion: A Study of Community Conflict in Public Policy-Making. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Treier, Shawn, and Simon Jackman. 2008. “Democracy as a Latent Variable.American Journal of Political Science 52 (1): 201–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vergata, Pat, Charlyn Buss, Barbara Schaln, and Donna Greenfield. 1972. “Abortion Cases in the United States.Women’s Rights Law Reporter 1:49–55.Google Scholar
Waldron, Jeremy. 2006. “The Core of the Case against Judicial Review.Yale Law Journal 115:1346–1406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Warshaw, Christopher, and Jonathan Rodden. 2012. “How Should We Measure District-Level Public Opinion on Individual Issues?Journal of Politics 74 (1): 203–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whittington, Keith E. 2005. “‘Interpose Your Friendly Hand’: Political Supports for the Exercise of Judicial Review by the United States Supreme Court.American Political Science Review 99 (4): 583–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whittington, Keith E. 2007. Political Foundations of Judicial Supremacy: The Presidency, the Supreme Court, and Constitutional Leadership in U.S. History. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar