Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-767nl Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-11T06:05:29.092Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Kalman Filtering of Generalized Vasicek Term Structure Models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 April 2009

Simon H. Babbs
Affiliation:
First National Bank of Chicago, 1 Triton Square, London NW1 3FN, U.K., University of Warwick
K. Ben Nowman
Affiliation:
City University Business School, Frobisher Crescent, London EC2Y 8HB, U.K.

Abstract

We present a subclass of Langetieg's (1980).linear Gaussian models of the term structure. The bond price is derived in terms of a finite set of state variables with correlated innovations. The subclass contains a reformulation of the double-decay model of Beaglehole and Tenney (1991), enabling us to clarify interpretation of their parameters. We apply Kalman filtering to a state space formulation of the model, allowing measurement errors in the data. One-, two-, and three-factor models are estimated on U.S. data from 1987–1996 and the results indicate the subclass of models can fit the U.S. term structure.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © School of Business Administration, University of Washington 1999

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Andersen, T. G., and Lund, J.. “Estimating Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models of the Short Term Interest Rate.” Journal of Econometrics, 77 (03 1997), 343377.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Babbs, S. H. “Generalized Vasicek Models of the Term Structure.” In Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis: Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium, Vol. 1, Janssen, J. and Skiadas, C. H., eds. Singapore: World Scientific (1993).Google Scholar
Babbs, S. H. “The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Stochastic Processes and Contingent Claims.” Unpubl. Ph.D. Diss., Imperial College, Univ. of London (1990).Google Scholar
Babbs, S. H., and Nowman, K. B.. “Kalman Filtering of Generalized Vasicek Term Structure Models.” Financial Option Research Centre, Univ. of Warwick, Preprint 97/80 (1997).Google Scholar
Babbs, S. H., and Selby, M. J. P.. “Pricing by Arbitrage in Incomplete Markets.” Unpubl. Paper, London (1993).Google Scholar
Ball, C. A., and Torous, W. N.. “Unit Roots and the Estimation of Interest Rate Dynamics.” Journal of Empirical Finance, 3 (06 1996), 215238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beaglehole, D. R., and Tenney, M. S.. “General Solutions of Some Interest Rate-Contingent Claim Pricing EquationsJournal of Fixed Income, 1 (09 1991), 6983.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergstrom, A. R. “Continuous Time Stochastic Models and Issues of Aggregation over Time.” In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 11, Griliches, Z. and Intriligator, M. D., eds. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science (1984).Google Scholar
Brenner, R. J.; Harjes, R. H.; and Kroner, K. F.. “Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 31 (03 1996), 85107.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, S. J., and Dybvig, P. H.. “The Empirical Implications of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” Journal of Finance, 41 (07 1986), 617630.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, R. H., and Schaefer, S. M.. “The Term Structure of Real Interest Rates and the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross ModelJournal of Financial Economics, 35 (02 1994), 342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Broze, L.; Scaillet, O.; and Zakoian, J.-M.. “Testing for Continuous Time Models of the Short-Term Interest RateJournal of Empirical Finance, 2 (09 1995), 199223.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, K. C.; Karolyi, G. A.; Longstaff, F. A.; and Sanders, A. B.. “Comparison of Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate.” Journal of Finance, 47 (07 1992), 12091227.Google Scholar
Chen, R., and Scott, L.. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Multifactor Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” Journal of Fixed Income, (12 1993), 1431.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, R., and Scott, L.. “Multi-Factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure: Estimates and Tests From a Kalman Filter Model.” Unpubl. Paper, Rutgers Univ. (1995).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, J. C.; Ingersoll, J. E.; and Ross, S. A.. “A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” Econometrica, 53 (1985), 385407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Munnik, J., and Schotman, P.. “Cross Sectional Versus Time Series Estimation of Term Structure Models: Empirical Results for the Dutch Bond MarketJournal of Banking and Finance, 18 (10 1994), 9971025.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duan, J. C., and Simonato, J. G.. “Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter.” Unpubl. Paper, Hong Kong Univ. of Science and Technology (1995).Google Scholar
Duffie, D., and Kan, R.. “A Yield-Factor Model of Interest RatesMathematical Finance, 6 (10 1996), 379406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geyer, A. L. J., and Pichler, S.. “A State-Space Approach to Estimate and Test Multi-Factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure.” Unpubl. Paper, Univ. of Economics, Vienna (1996).Google Scholar
Gibbons, M. R., and Ramaswamy, K.. “A Test of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model of the Term Structure.” Review of Financial Studies, 6 (1993), 619658.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harvey, A. C.Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge, England: Cambridge Univ. Press (1989).Google Scholar
Hull, J., and White, A.. “Numerical Procedures for Implementing Term Structure Models II: Two-Factor Models.” Journal of Derivatives, 2 (1994), 3748.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hull, J., and White, A.. “Pricing Interest-Rate Derivative Securities.” Review of Financial Studies, 3 (1990), 573592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jegadeesh, N., and Pennacchi, G. G.. “The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar FuturesJournal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 28 (08 1996), 426446.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langetieg, T. C.A Multivariate Model of the Term Structure.” Journal of Finance, 35 (03 1980), 7191.Google Scholar
Litterman, R., and Scheinkman, J.. “Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns.” Journal of Fixed Income, 1 (06 1991), 5461.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lund, J. “A Model for Studying the Effect of EMU on European Yield Curves.” Unpubl. Paper, The Aarhus School of Business (1997).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lund, J. “Econometric Analysis of Continuous-Time Arbitrage-Free Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates.” The Aarhus School of Business (1994).Google Scholar
Nowman, K. B.Continuous Time Short Rate Interest Rate Models.” Applied Financial Economics, 8 (1998), 401407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nowman, K. B.Gaussian Estimation of Single-Factor Continuous Time Models of the Term Structure of Interest RatesJournal of Finance, 52 (09 1997), 16951706.Google Scholar
Pearson, N. D., and Sun, T. S.. “Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross ModelJournal of Finance, 49 (09 1994), 12791304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pennacchi, G. G.Identifying the Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and Inflation: Evidence Using Survey Data.” Review of Financial Studies, 4 (1991), 5386.CrossRefGoogle Scholar