Clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis state is characterized by presence of potentially prodromal for schizophrenia symptoms. The aim of this study was to assess the predictors of transition to first psychotic episode.

The study included 123 CHR subjects. All the subjects were characterized by the presence of one of the group of criteria: (1) UHR criteria, (2) basic symptoms criteria and (3) negative symptoms and formal thought disorders (FTD). The presence of FTD in clinical high-risk individuals was assessed with methods of experimental pathopsychology. The mean length of follow-up was 26 months (SD 18). All subjects were males, mean age = 20.2 (SD: 2.1). We examined the subjects’ performance using the Cambridge automated neuropsychological test battery. We applied survival analyses to determine associations between a transition to psychosis and sociodemographic, clinical and neurocognitive parameters. To determine which items are the best predictors, Cox regression analyses were applied.

The psychosis developed in 39 subjects (31.7%). Global assessment of functioning, positive symptoms, blunted affect, social isolation, impaired role function, disorganizing/stigmatizing behavior, basic symptoms (thought pressure, unstable ideas of reference), neurocognitive parameters (visual memory and new learning, decision making, executive function) significantly influenced the transition to psychosis. A prediction model was developed and included unusual thought content (Wald = 12.386, P < 0.0001, HR = 2.996), perceptual abnormalities (Wald = 4.777, P = 0.029, HR = 1.43) and impaired role function (Wald = 1.425, P < 0.028, HR = 4.157).

Clinical measures are important predictors for transition to psychosis in high-risk individuals.

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.