The disproportionate burden of prevalent, persistent pathogens among disadvantaged groups may contribute to socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in long-term health. We assessed if the social patterning of pathogen burden changed over 16 years in a U.S.-representative sample. Data came from 17 660 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants. Pathogen burden was quantified by summing the number of positive serologies for cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus-1, HSV-2, human papillomavirus and Toxoplasma gondii and dividing by the number of pathogens tested, giving a percent-seropositive for each participant. We examined sex- and age-adjusted mean pathogen burdens from 1999–2014, stratified by race/ethnicity and SES (poverty-to-income ratio (PIR); educational attainment). Those with a PIR < 1.3 had a mean pathogen burden 1.4–1.8 times those with a PIR > 3.5, with no change over time. Educational disparities were even greater and showed some evidence of increasing over time, with the mean pathogen burden among those with less than a high school education approximately twice that of those who completed more than high school. Non-Hispanic Black, Mexican American and other Hispanic participants had a mean pathogen burden 1.3–1.9 times non-Hispanic Whites. We demonstrate that socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in pathogen burden have persisted across 16 years, with little evidence that the gap is closing.

This study explored how internet queries vary in facilitating monitoring of pertussis, and the effects of sociodemographic characteristics on such variation by city in Shandong province, China. We collected weekly pertussis notifications, Baidu Index (BI) data and yearly sociodemographic data at the city level between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2017. Spearman's correlation was performed for temporal risk indices, generalised linear models and regression tree models were developed to identify the hierarchical effects and the threshold between sociodemographic factors and internet query data with pertussis surveillance. The BI was correlated with pertussis notifications, with a strongly spatial variation among cities in temporal risk indices (composite temporal risk metric (CTRM) range: 0.59–1.24). The percentage of urban population (relative risk (RR): 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.07), the proportion of highly educated population (RR: 1.27, 95% CI 1.16–1.39) and the internet access rate (RR: 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.05) were correlated with CTRM. Higher RRs in the three identified sociodemographic factors were associated with higher stratified CTRM. The percentage of highly educated population was the most important determinant in the BI with pertussis surveillance. The findings may lead to spatially-specific criteria to inform development of an early warning system of pertussis infections using internet query data.

Adolescents have been largely neglected from tuberculosis control efforts. In low- to medium burden settings much of the tuberculosis burden in this age group occurs from school outbreaks. We report on a large tuberculosis outbreak in adolescents from a boarding high school in Jiangsu Province, China. From March to June 2018, a tuberculosis outbreak occurred in a boarding high school. We conducted an outbreak investigation involving clinical diagnostic tests and molecular analysis to determine the outbreak origin. Cases were detected through symptom screening, tuberculin skin testing (TST), chest radiography, sputum smear, solid sputum culture and GeneXpert MTB/RIF. Mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) genotyping and spoligotyping methods were performed on Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) isolates to identify the outbreak origin. A total of 845 students and 131 teachers/staff attended a TST screening for tuberculosis infection. The prevalence of elevated tuberculin reactions at ≥5, ≥10 and ≥15 mm was 12.19% (119/976), 6.35% (62/976) and 3.28% (32/976), respectively. Radiographic abnormalities were present in 5.73% (56 of 976) individuals, 40 students and 16 teachers/staff. Of these, 12 students were diagnosed with confirmed tuberculosis. In total, 14 students (two index cases and 12 confirmed cases) were diagnosed and reported in the tuberculosis outbreak, an attack rate of 1.7% (14/847) among students (two index cases and 845 screened students). Results from MIRU-VNTR typing and spoligotyping analyses demonstrated that three M. tuberculosis strains belong to the Beijing family with corresponding MIRU-VNTR alleles. This school-based tuberculosis outbreak among adolescents demonstrates that transmission among individuals in this age group is common and must be prioritised. It suggests that identifying and timely diagnosis of smear-positive cases, especially in the early phase of outbreaks, is the key to preventing further spread among close contacts.

As Bulgaria transitions away from Global Fund grant, robust estimates of the comparative impact of the various response strategies under consideration are needed to ensure sustained effectiveness of the tuberculosis (TB) programme. We tailored an established mathematical model for TB control to the epidemic in Bulgaria to project the likely outcomes of seven intervention scenarios. Under existing programmatic conditions projected forward, the country's targets for achieving TB elimination in the coming decades will not be achieved. No interventions under consideration were predicted to accelerate the baseline projected reduction in epidemiological indicators significantly. Discontinuation of the ‘Open Doors’ program and activities of non-governmental organisations would result in a marked exacerbation of the epidemic (increasing incidence in 2035 by 6–8% relative to baseline conditions projected forward). Changing to a short course regimen for multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) would substantially decrease MDR-TB mortality (by 21.6% in 2035 relative to baseline conditions projected forward). Changing to ambulatory care for eligible patients would not affect TB burden but would be markedly cost-saving. In conclusion, Bulgaria faces important challenges in transitioning to a primarily domestically-financed TB programme. The country should consider maintaining currently effective programs and shifting towards ambulatory care to ensure program sustainability.

Epidemiological data for Toxoplasma gondii regarding malignancy have gained increasing attention; however, the information about T. gondii infection among children with malignant lymphoma (ML) in China is unclear. Therefore, 314 children with lymphoma and 314 healthy children, age- and gender-matched, were recruited to estimate the seroprevalence of T. gondii in the participants and identify the risk factors of infection. Blood samples from all participants were collected and examined for T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using ELISA. The results showed that the overall seroprevalence of T. gondii antibodies (including IgG and/or IgM) in ML patients and healthy controls was 19.8% and 9.9%, respectively. Contact with the cats, consumption of oysters and history of chemotherapy were estimated to be the risk factors for T. gondii infection in children with lymphoma by multivariable logistic regression analysis, whereas in healthy children, contact with cats and consumption of oysters were the risk factors. Moreover, among various histological types of lymphoma, individuals with NK/T-cell lymphoma, B-small lymphocytic lymphoma, marginal zone B-lymphoma and Hodgkin's lymphoma had a higher seroprevalence than healthy controls (P < 0.05). These findings indicated the high prevalence of T. gondii infection in children with lymphoma, and hence, efforts should be performed to evaluate the effect of the infection further in lymphoma patients.

Vaccine effectiveness studies are subject to biases due to depletion-of-persons at risk of infection, or at especially high risk of infection, at different rates from different groups (depletion-of-susceptibles bias), a problem that can also lead to biased estimates of waning effectiveness, including spurious inference of waning when none exists. An alternative study design to identify waning is to study only vaccinated persons, and compare for each day the incidence in persons with earlier or later dates of vaccination to assess waning in vaccine protection as a function of vaccination time (namely whether earlier vaccination would result in lower subsequent protection compared to later vaccination). Prior studies suggested under what conditions this alternative would yield correct estimates of waning. Here we define the depletion-of-susceptibles process formally and show mathematically that for influenza vaccine waning studies, a randomised trial or corresponding observational study that compares incidence at a specific calendar time among individuals vaccinated at different times before the influenza season begins will not be vulnerable to depletion-of-susceptibles bias in its inference of waning as a function of vaccination time under the null hypothesis that none exists, and will – if waning does actually occur – underestimate the extent of waning. Such a design is thus robust in the sense that a finding of waning in that inference framework reflects actual waning of vaccine-induced immunity. We recommend such a design for future studies of waning, whether observational or randomised.

Rotavirus (RV) is the main cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in young children. The San Luis province of Argentina introduced RV vaccination in May 2013. We estimate vaccine impact (RVI) using real-world data. Data on all-cause AGE cases and AGE-related hospitalisations for San Luis and the adjacent Mendoza province (control group) were obtained and analysed by interrupted time-series methods. Regardless of the model used for counterfactual predictions, we estimated a reduction in the number of all-cause AGE cases of 20–25% and a reduction in AGE-related hospitalisations of 55–60%. The vaccine impact was similar for each age group considered (<1 year, <2 years and <5 years). RV vaccination was estimated to have reduced direct medical costs in the province by about 4.5 million pesos from May 2013 to December 2014. Similar to previous studies, we found a higher impact of RV vaccination in preventing severe all-cause AGE cases requiring hospitalisation than in preventing all-cases AGE cases presenting for medical care. An assessment of the economic value of RV vaccination could take other benefits into account in addition to the avoided medical costs and the costs of vaccination.

Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a main pathogen causing community-acquired pneumonia in children and young adults. Since the emergence of macrolide-resistant M. pneumoniae in the early 2000s in Japan, it has been increasingly reported worldwide as a growing problem in treatment for children. With increasing macrolide-resistant M. pneumoniae and limited data regarding its characterization and molecular analysis, we investigated the dominant M. pneumoniae strains during the recent outbreak in South Korea, and evaluated if there was an association between a specific type and macrolide resistance. Between October 2014 and December 2016 in South Korea, 249 respiratory specimens obtained from patients with confirmed M. pneumoniae pneumonia were genotyped the P1 adhesin gene, and the mutations associated with resistance (A2063G and A2064G) were tested by sequencing the targeted domain V regions of the 23S ribosomal RNA gene. Results revealed that M. pneumoniae type 1 were predominant, which was strongly associated with macrolide-resistance during the whole study period. This is the first study assessing whether M. pneumoniae subtype is related to macrolide resistance during the outbreak of M. pneumoniae.

This study compares the frequency and severity of influenza A/H1N1pdm09 (A/H1), influenza A/H3N2 (A/H3) and other respiratory virus infections in hospitalised patients. Data from 17 332 adult hospitalised patients admitted to Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, with a respiratory illness between 2012 and 2015 were linked with data containing reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction results for respiratory viruses including A/H1, A/H3, influenza B, human metapneumovirus, respiratory syncytial virus and parainfluenza. Of these, 1753 (10.1%) had test results. Multivariable regression analyses were conducted to compare the viruses for clinical outcomes including ICU admission, ventilation, pneumonia, length of stay and death. Patients with A/H1 were more likely to experience severe outcomes such as ICU admission (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2–5.5, P = 0.016), pneumonia (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.6–5.7, P < 0.001) and lower risk of discharge from hospital (indicating longer lengths of hospitalisation; HR 0.64 95% CI 0.47–0.88, P = 0.005), than patients with A/H3. Patients with a non-influenza respiratory virus were less likely to experience severe clinical outcomes than patients with A/H1, however, had similar likelihood when compared to patients with A/H3. Patients hospitalised with A/H1 had higher odds of severe outcomes than patients with A/H3 or other respiratory viruses. Knowledge of circulating influenza strains is important for healthcare preparedness.

Among the different existing types of bacterial meningitis, the one caused by Neisseria meningitidis is the main presentation of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). IMD is a significant public health concern and has a reported incidence rate in Argentina of 0.44 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2015. However, the actual incidence is thought to be higher as passive surveillance systems neither report nor identify 100% of all cases. The aim of this study is to develop an estimation of the burden of IMD in Argentina closer to reality by adjusting/correcting several limitations observed in the surveillance data available. A retrospective observational study has been performed using four Argentinean national databases recording the number of IMD cases and deaths, serogroups of N. meningitidis and ages, between 2007 to 2016. The reported data were adjusted to account for underreporting and to also integrate the cases missed due to well-known limitations associated with the diagnosis of N. meningitidis detection methods. Data were further analysed by serogroups of N. meningitidis and by age groups. After these adjustments, the potential numbers of IMD cases and IMD-related deaths are estimated to be 3.1 and 1.9 higher than reported, respectively. The study corrects the previous underestimation of the disease burden and provides expectedly more robust estimates aligned with international evidence and highlights the importance of active surveillance, with high-quality methods, for a better definition of preventive strategies against IMD in Argentina.

Predicting the magnitude of the annual seasonal peak in influenza-like illness (ILI)-related emergency department (ED) visit volumes can inform the decision to open influenza care clinics (ICCs), which can mitigate pressure at the ED. Using ILI-related ED visit data from the Alberta Real Time Syndromic Surveillance Net for Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, we developed (training data, 1 August 2004–31 July 2008) and tested (testing data, 1 August 2008–19 February 2014) spatio-temporal statistical prediction models of daily ILI-related ED visits to estimate high visit volumes 3 days in advance. Our Main Model, based on a generalised linear mixed model with random intercept, incorporated prediction residuals over 14 days and captured increases in observed volume ahead of peaks. During seasonal influenza periods, our Main Model predicted volumes within ±30% of observed volumes for 67%–82% of high-volume days and within 0.3%–21% of observed seasonal peak volumes. Model predictions were not as successful during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Our model can provide early warning of increases in ILI-related ED visit volumes during seasonal influenza periods of differing intensities. These predictions may be used to support public health decisions, such as if and when to open ICCs, during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Relationship of genetic polymorphisms in cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (CTLA-4) and interleukin-18 (IL-18) with susceptibility to viral hepatitis was already investigated by many association studies. The aim of this study was to more comprehensively analyse associations between genetic polymorphisms in CTLA-4/IL-18 and viral hepatitis by combing the results of all relevant association studies. We searched Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science and CNKI for eligible studies. We used Review Manager to combine the results of eligible studies. Thirty-seven studies were finally included in this meta-analysis. Combined results demonstrated that CTLA-4 rs231775 (recessive comparison: OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.11–1.55), IL-18 rs1946518 (dominant comparison: OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.75–0.90; recessive comparison: OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.11–1.50; allele comparison: OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68–0.86) and IL-18 rs187238 (dominant comparison: OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.03–1.52; allele comparison: OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05–1.37) polymorphisms were all significantly associated with viral hepatitis in the general population. Further subgroup analyses revealed that CTLA-4 rs231775, IL-18 rs1946518 and IL-18 rs187238 polymorphisms were significantly associated with susceptibility to hepatitis B virus (HBV), especially among East Asians. Moreover, CTLA-4 rs5742909, IL-18 rs1946518 and IL-18 rs187238 polymorphisms were also significantly associated with susceptibility to hepatitis C virus (HCV), especially among South Asians. So to conclude, this meta-analysis demonstrated that CTLA-4 rs231775, IL-18 rs1946518 and IL-18 rs187238 polymorphisms may confer susceptibility to HBV in East Asians, while CTLA-4 rs5742909, IL-18 rs1946518 and IL-18 rs187238 polymorphisms may confer susceptibility to HCV in South Asians.

The impact of mechanical ventilation on the daily costs of intensive care unit (ICU) care is largely unknown. We thus conducted a systematic search for studies measuring the daily costs of ICU stays for general populations of adults (age ≥18 years) and the added costs of mechanical ventilation. The relative increase in the daily costs was estimated using random effects meta regression. The results of the analyses were applied to a recent study calculating the excess length-of-stay associated with ICU-acquired (ventilator-associated) pneumonia, a major complication of mechanical ventilation. The search identified five eligible studies including a total of 54 766 patients and ~238 037 patient days in the ICU. Overall, mechanical ventilation was associated with a 25.8% (95% CI 4.7%–51.2%) increase in the daily costs of ICU care. A combination of these estimates with standardised unit costs results in approximate daily costs of a single ventilated ICU day of €1654 and €1580 in France and Germany, respectively. Mechanical ventilation is a major driver of ICU costs and should be taken into account when measuring the financial burden of adverse events in ICU settings.

In Denmark, outbreaks of salmonella with more than 20 cases have become rare. In November 2018, an outbreak of monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium was detected and an investigation initiated with the aim of identifying the source and controlling the outbreak. Outbreak cases were defined based on core genome multilocus sequence types. We conducted hypothesis-generating interviews, a matched case-control study, food sampling and trace-back investigations. We identified 49 cases distributed across Denmark. In univariable analyses a traditional form of raw Danish pork sausage (medister sausage), pork chops and ground veal/pork showed matched odds ratio of 26 (95% CI 3–207), 4 (95% CI 1–13) and 4 (95% CI 1–10), respectively. In a multivariable analysis, only medister sausage remained significant. Several patients described tasting or eating the sausage raw or undercooked. Samples of medister sausage analysed were negative for salmonella and investigations at the production site did not reveal the mechanism of contamination. In conclusion, in spite of having eliminated salmonella in the egg and broiler industry, Denmark is still at risk of major salmonella outbreaks. We identified a raw pork sausage as a particular risk product that needs to be thoroughly cooked before consumption. Tasting raw meat or eating undercooked pork should be discouraged.

Brucellosis is a widespread zoonosis caused by small bacteria of the genus Brucella. The promoter polymorphisms of IL-10 (-1082 loci, -819 loci and -590 loci) are closely related to the production of IL-10, leading to the alteration of development and pathogenesis of Brucellosis. However, the previous results were controversial. In the present study, we conduct the meta-analysis to get a more precise result of IL-10 polymorphisms with Brucellosis risk. The quality of the studies was assessed according to a predefined scale. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were counted to evaluate the association strength. No significant association was found between position -1082 loci or -590 loci polymorphism and Brucellosis risk. The significant association was found in Asian population of position -819 (T vs. C: OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.44–0.82, P = 0.001), homozygote comparison (TT vs. CC: OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.09–0.62, P = 0.003) and recessive genetic model (TT vs. TC/CC: OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05–0.91, P = 0.036). The present meta-analysis demonstrates that IL-10-819 loci polymorphism is not associated with Brucellosis risk of Caucasian population but may contribute a decreased risk to Asian population. And neither IL-10-1082 loci nor -592 loci polymorphism is associated with Brucellosis risk.

A large-scale measles outbreak (11 495 reported cases, 60% aged ≥15 years) occurred in Georgia during 2013–2015. A nationwide, multistage, stratified cluster serosurvey for hepatitis B and C among persons aged ≥18 years conducted in Georgia in late 2015 provided an opportunity to assess measles and rubella (MR) susceptibility after the outbreak. Residual specimens from 3125 participants aged 18–50 years were tested for Immunoglobulin G antibodies against MR using ELISA. Nationwide, 6.3% (95% CI 4.9%–7.6%) of the surveyed population were seronegative for measles and 8.6% (95% CI 7.1%–10.1%) were seronegative for rubella. Measles susceptibility was highest among 18–24 year-olds (10.1%) and declined with age to 1.2% among 45–50 year-olds (P < 0.01). Susceptibility to rubella was highest among 25–29 year-olds (15.3%), followed by 18–24 year-olds (11.6%) and 30–34 year-olds (10.2%), and declined to <5% among persons aged ≥35 years (P < 0.001). The susceptibility profiles in the present serosurvey were consistent with the epidemiology of recent MR cases and the history of the immunization programme. Measles susceptibility levels >10% among 18–24 year-olds in Georgia revealed continued risk for outbreaks among young adults. High susceptibility to rubella among 18–34 year-olds indicates a continuing risk for congenital rubella cases.