Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home

RACE, CRIME, AND THE CHANGING FORTUNES OF URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS, 1999–2013

  • Lauren J. Krivo (a1), María B. Vélez (a2), Christopher J. Lyons (a2), Jason B. Phillips (a3) and Elizabeth Sabbath (a2)...

Abstract

For over a century, scholars have traced higher levels of serious crime in minority compared to White neighborhoods to stark socioeconomic inequality. Yet, this research is largely cross-sectional and does not assess how ethnoracial differences in crime patterns evolve over time in response to shifting structural conditions. The new century witnessed substantial changes to the circumstances that undergird the ethnoracial divide in neighborhood crime as well as a national crime decline. How are the changing dynamics of urban inequality reinforcing or diminishing racial and ethnic disparities in neighborhood crime in the context of the “Great American Crime Decline”? We address this question by first identifying distinct paths of violent and property crime change between 1999 and 2013 for almost 2700 neighborhoods across eighteen cities. We then assess how initial and changing levels of disadvantage, housing instability, and demographics explain divergent crime trajectories within neighborhoods. We find that most neighborhoods have lower levels of homicide and burglary than fifteen years ago. However, homicide and burglary increased in some neighborhoods, and this trend is largely limited to Black neighborhoods. Disadvantage and the housing crisis are critical in accounting for the heightened risk of neighborhoods having increasing rather than decreasing crime trends. In contrast, immigration is linked with declining and stable trends in violent and property crime. Overall, results indicate a widening of the racial-spatial divide for the most marginalized communities in the United States.

Copyright

Corresponding author

*Corresponding authors: Lauren J. Krivo, Department of Sociology, Rutgers University, 26 Nichol Avenue, New Brunswick, NJ 08901. E-mail: lkrivo@sociology.rutgers.edu;María B. Vélez, Department of Sociology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131. E-mail: mvelez@unm.edu; or Christopher Lyons, Department of Sociology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131. E-mail: clyons@unm.edu.

References

Hide All
Andresen, Martin A., Curman, Andrea S., and Linning, Shannon J. (2017). The Trajectories of Crime at Places: Understanding the Patterns of Disaggregated Crime Types. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 33(3): 427449.
Apel, Robert (2014). Group-Based Trajectory Models and Developmental Change. In Bruinsma, Gerben and Weisburd, David (Eds.), The Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice, pp. 20032012. New York: Springer.
Baumer, Eric P., Vélez, María B., and Rosenfeld, Richard (2018). Bringing Crime Trends Back into Criminology: A Critical Assessment of the Literature and a Blueprint for Future Inquiry. Annual Review of Criminology, 1: 3961.
Baumer, Eric P., and Wolff, Kevin T. (2014). Evaluating Contemporary Crime Drops in America, New York City, and Many Other Places. Justice Quarterly, 31(1): 538.
Baumer, Eric P., Wolff, Kevin T., and Arnio, Ashley N. (2012). A Multi-City Analysis of Foreclosure and Crime across Neighborhoods. Social Science Quarterly, 93(3): 577601.
Blumstein, Alfred (1974). Seriousness Weights in an Index of Crime. American Sociological Review, 39(6): 854864.
Blumstein, Alfred, and Rosenfeld, Richard (1998). Explaining Recent Trends in U.S. Homicide Rates. The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 88(4): 11751216.
Bursik, Robert J. Jr., and Webb, Jim (1982). Community Change and Patterns of Delinquency. American Journal of Sociology, 88(1): 2442.
Chavez, Jorge M., and Griffiths, Elizabeth (2009). Neighborhood Dynamics of Urban Violence: Understanding the Immigration Connection. Homicide Studies, 13(3): 261273.
Curman, Andrea S. N., Andresen, Martin A., and Brantingham, Paul J. (2015). Crime and Place: A Longitudinal Examination of Street Segment patterns in Vancouver, BC. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 31(1): 127147.
Cui, Lin, and Walsh, Randall. (2015). Foreclosure, Vacancy and Crime. Journal of Urban Economics, 87: 7284.
Du Bois, W. E. B. (1899 [1973]). The Philadelphia Negro: A Social Study. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Ellen, Ingrid Gould, Lacoe, Johanna, and Sharygin, Ayanna (2013). Do Foreclosures Cause Crime? Journal of Urban Economics, 74: 5970.
Ellen, Ingrid Gould, and O’Regan, Katherine (2009). Crime and U.S. Cities: Recent Patterns and Implications. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 626: 2238.
Fagan, Jeffrey (2008). Crime and Neighborhood Change. In Goldberger, Arthur S. and Rosenfeld, Richard (Eds.), Understanding Crime Trends: Workshop Report, pp. 81126. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
Federal Bureau of Investigation (2016). Crime in the United States, 2015. Washington, DC: United States Department of Justice. <https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1> (accessed May 19, 2017).
Friedson, Michael, and Sharkey, Patrick (2015). Violence and Neighborhood Disadvantage after the Crime Decline. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 660: 341358.
Griffiths, Elizabeth, and Chavez, Jorge M. (2004). Communities, Street Guns and Homicide Trajectories in Chicago, 1980–1995: Merging Methods for Examining Homicide Trends across Space and Time. Criminology, 42(4): 941978.
Groff, Elizabeth R., Weisburd, David, and Yang, Sue-Ming (2010). Is it Important to Examine Crime Trends at a Local “Micro” Level? A Longitudinal Analysis of Street to Street Variability in Crime Trajectories. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 26(1): 732.
Hall, Matthew, Crowder, Kyle, and Spring, Amy (2015). Variations in Housing Foreclosures by Race and Place, 2005-2012. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 660: 217237.
Hyra, Derek, and Rugh, Jacob S (2016). The US Great Recession: Exploring Its Association with Black Neighborhood Rise, Decline and Recovery. Urban Geography, 37(5): 700726.
Kirk, David S., and Laub, John H. (2010). Neighborhood Change and Crime in the Modern Metropolis. Crime and Justice, 39(1): 441502.
Iceland, John, and Hernandez, Erik (2016). Understanding Trends in Concentrated Poverty: 1980 to 2014. Social Science Research, 62: 7595.
Immergluck, Dan, and Smith, Geoff (2006). The Impact of Single-Family Mortgage Foreclosures on Neighborhood Crime. Housing Studies, 21(6): 851866.
Jargowsky, Paul A. (2014). Concentration of Poverty in the New Millennium: Changes in Prevalence, Composition, and Location of High Poverty Neighborhoods. Washington, DC: The Century Foundation and Rutgers Center for Urban Research and Education.
Jones, Bobby L., and Nagin, Daniel S. (2013). A Note on a Stata Plugin for Estimating Group-based Trajectory Models. Sociological Methods Research, 42(4): 608613.
Lee, Jennifer, and Bean, Frank D. (2007). Reinventing the Color Line Immigration and America’s New Racial/Ethnic Divide. Social Forces, 86(2): 561586.
Logan, John R., Xu, Zengwang, and Stults, Brian J. (2014). Interpolating US Decennial Census Tract Data from as Early as 1970 to 2010: A Longitudinal Tract Database. The Professional Geographer, 66(3): 412420.
Logan, John R., and Zhang, Charles (2010). Global Neighborhoods: New Pathways to Diversity and Separation. American Journal of Sociology, 115(4): 10691109.
Logan, John R., and Zhang, Wenquan (2011). Global Neighborhoods: New Evidence from Census 2010. US2010 Project Report. <http://www.s4.brown.edu/us2010/Data/Report/globalfinal2.pdf> (accessed June 1, 2017).
Lyons, Christopher J., Vélez, María B., and Santoro, Wayne A. (2013). Neighborhood Immigration, Violence, and City-Level Immigrant Political Opportunities. American Sociological Review, 78(4): 604632.
Massey, Douglas S., and Tannen, Jonathan (2015). A Research Note on Trends in Black Hypersegregation. Demography, 52(3): 10251034.
McDowall, David, and Loftin, Colin (2009). Do US City Crime Rates Follow a National Trend? The Influence of Nationwide Conditions on Local Crime Patterns. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 25(3): 307324.
Mian, Atif R., Sufi, Amir, and Trebbi, Francesco (2015). Foreclosures, House Prices, and the Real Economy. The Journal of Finance, 70(6): 25872633.
Osgood, D. Wayne (2000). Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 16(1): 2143.
Owens, Ann, and Sampson, Robert J. (2013). Community Well-Being and the Great Recession. A Great Recession Brief, Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, Stanford University.
Park, Robert E., and Burgess, Ernest W. (1921). Introduction to the Science of Sociology. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Peterson, Ruth D., and Krivo, Lauren J. (2010a). Divergent Social Worlds: Neighborhood Crime and the Racial-Spatial Divide. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Peterson, Ruth D., and Krivo, Lauren J. (2010b). National Neighborhood Crime Study (NNCS), 2000 [Computer file]. ICPSR27501–v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.
Raftery, Adrian E. (1995). Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research. Sociological Methodology, 25: 111163.
Rugh, Jacob S., and Massey, Douglas S. (2010). Racial Segregation and the American Foreclosure Crisis. American Sociological Review, 75(5): 629651
Sampson, Robert J. (2012). Great American City: Chicago and the Enduring Neighborhood Effect. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Sampson, Robert J., and Wilson, William Julius. (1995). Toward a Theory of Race, Crime, and Urban Inequality. In Hagan, John and Peterson, Ruth D. (Eds.), Crime and Inequality, pp. 3754. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Schuerman, Leo, and Kobrin, Solomon (1986). Community Careers in Crime. Crime and Justice, 8: 67100.
Shaw, Clifford, and McKay, Henry (1942). Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Skogan, Wesley G. (1990). Disorder and Decline: Crime and the Spiral of Decay in American Neighborhoods. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Stults, Brian J. (2010). Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trajectories: 1965-1995. Homicide Studies, 14(3): 244267.
Weisburd, David, Bushway, Shawn, Lum, Cynthia, and Yang, Sue-Ming (2004). Trajectories of Crime at Place: A Longitudinal Study of Street Segments in the City of Seattle. Criminology, 42(2): 283321.
Wheeler, Andrew P., Worden, Robert E., and McLean, Sarah J. (2016). Replicating Group-Based Trajectory Models of Crime at Micro-Places in Albany, NY. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 32(4): 589612.
Wilson, William Julius (1987). The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy. Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
Yang, Sue-Ming (2010). Assessing the Spatial-Temporal Relationship Between Disorder and Violence. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 26(1): 139163.
Zimring, Franklin E. (2007). The Great American Crime Decline. New York: Oxford University Press.

Keywords

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed