Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-qxdb6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T10:34:30.019Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Liberal Leaders and Liberal Success: The Impact of Alternation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 May 2019

Richard Johnston*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, 1866 Main Mall, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: richard.johnston@ubc.ca

Abstract

A leader from Quebec boosts the fortunes of the Liberal party in that province. This, in turn, has helped make Quebec the veto player in twentieth-century Canadian elections and the Liberals the “natural” governing party. Although Quebec is no longer as critical as before, a leader from the province still makes a big difference. Full impact from the pattern requires more than one election to unfold. Patterns outside Quebec are similar, if fainter: the Liberal party is not punished for choosing a Quebecker and may even be helped. The early success of the pattern moved the Liberals to alternate between Quebec and non-Quebec leaders, such that the party is now led by a Quebecker more often than not. Maintaining alternation has never been easy and is only getting harder.

Résumé

Un chef du Québec favorise le sort du Parti libéral dans cette province. Cela a contribué à son tour à faire du Québec le joueur de veto aux élections canadiennes du XXe siècle et des libéraux le parti ayant « naturellement » vocation à gouverner. Bien que le Québec ne soit plus aussi critique qu'avant, un leader de la province marque toujours une grande différence. Le plein impact de la tendance nécessite plus d'une élection pour se déployer. À l'extérieur du Québec, les tendances sont semblables, quoique plus faibles : le Parti libéral n'est pas puni pour avoir choisi un Québécois et peut même être aidé. Le succès initial de ce modèle a incité les libéraux à alterner entre des chefs québécois et non québécois, de sorte que le parti est maintenant dirigé le plus souvent par un Québécois. Le maintien de l'alternance n'a jamais été facile et ne fait que se compliquer.

Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Banks, Margaret A. 1957. “The Change in Liberal Party Leadership, 1887.” Canadian Historical Review 38 (2): 109–28.Google Scholar
Banting, Keith G. and Myles, John. 2013. Inequality and the Fading of Redistributive Politics. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 2002. “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 24 (2): 117–50.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 1991. “Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval.” Political Analysis 3 (1): 5187.Google Scholar
Birnir, Jóhanna Kristín. 2006. Ethnicity and Electoral Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brown, Robert Craig. 1975. Robert Laird Borden, A Biography. Vol. 1: 1854–1914. Toronto: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Chrétien, Jean. 1994. Straight from the Heart, 2nd ed. Toronto: Key Porter Books.Google Scholar
Courtney, John C. 1973. The Selection of National Party Leaders in Canada. Toronto: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Courtney, John C. 1995. Do Conventions Matter? Choosing National Party Leaders in Canada. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Crête, Jean and Simard, Johanne. 1984. “Conjuncture économique et elections: Une étude des élections au Québec.” In Comportment electoral au Québec, ed. Crête, Jean. Chicoutimi: Gaetan Morin.Google Scholar
Crunican, Paul. 1974. Priests and Politicians: Manitoba Schools and the Election of 1896. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Dassonneville, Ruth and Lewis-Beck, Michael. 2013. “Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe.” Political Science Research and Methods 1 (1): 5366.Google Scholar
Dawson, Michael. 1994. Behind the Mule: Race and Class in African-American Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Donaghy, Greg. 2015. Grit: The Life and Politics of Paul Martin Sr. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey and Andersen, Robert. 2006. “The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions.” Journal of Politics 68 (1): 194207.Google Scholar
Globe and Mail (Toronto). 2006. “The Liberal Leadership: And Then There Was One.” November 25. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-liberal-leadership-and-then-there-was-one/article1329611/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&. Accessed: 7 February 2019.Google Scholar
Grant, Taylor and Lebo, Matthew J.. 2016. “Error Correction Methods in Political Time Series.” Political Analysis 24 (1): 330.Google Scholar
Hendry, D. F. 2003. Dynamic Econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Huber, John D. 2012. “Measuring Ethnic Voting: Do Proportional Electoral Laws Politicize Ethnicity?American Journal of Political Science 56 (4): 9861001.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard, Blais, André, Gidengil, Elisabeth, Nevitte, Neil and Brady, Henry E.. 1996. “The 1993 Canadian Election: Realignment, Dealignment, or Something Else?Paper presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, California.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard. 2017. The Canadian Party System: An Analytic History. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A. and Grafström, Cassandra. 2016. “The Luxury Goods Vote: Why Left Governments Are Punished More for Economic Downturns.” Unpublished manuscript. Berlin: Hertie School of Governance. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24409.31841.Google Scholar
Kedar, Orit. 2009. Voting for Policy, Not Parties: How Voters Compensate for Power Sharing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kenig, Ofer. 2009. “Democratization of Party Leadership Selection: Do Wider Selectorates Produce More Competitive Contests?Electoral Studies 28 (2): 240–47.Google Scholar
Kiewiet, Roderick D. 1981. “Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues.” American Political Science Review 75 (2): 448–59.Google Scholar
Lederle, John W. 1947. “The Liberal Convention of 1919 and the Selection of Mackenzie King.” Dalhousie Review 27 (1): 8592.Google Scholar
LeDuc, Lawrence. 1971. “Party Decision-Making: Some Empirical Observations on the Leadership Selection Process.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 4 (1): 97118.Google Scholar
Lemieux, Vincent and Crête, Jean. 1982. “Quebec.” In Canada at the Polls, 1979 and 1980, ed. Howard, R. Penniman. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.Google Scholar
Martin, Paul. 1983. A Very Public Life: So Many Worlds, vol. 2. Ottawa: Deneau.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard and Blais, André. 1993. “Explaining Election Outcomes in Canada: Economy and Politics.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 26 (4): 775–90.Google Scholar
Neatby, H. Blair. 1973. Laurier and a Liberal Quebec: A Study in Political Management. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart.Google Scholar
Pickup, Mark. 2014. Introduction to Time Series. Thousand Oaks: Sage.Google Scholar
Pinard, Maurice. 1966. “La faiblesse des Conservateurs et la montée du Crédit social en 1962.” Recherches Sociographiques 7 (3): 360–63.Google Scholar
Pinard, Maurice. 1975. The Rise of a Third Party: A Study in Crisis Politics. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Power, Charles Gavan. 1966. A Party Politician: The Memoirs of Chubby Power, ed. by Ward, Norman. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Quinn, Herbert. 1951. “The Third National Convention of the Liberal Party.” Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 17 (2): 228–33.Google Scholar
Rabushka, Alvin and Shepsle, Kenneth A.. 1972. Politics in Plural Societies: A Theory of Democratic Instability. Columbus: Charles E. Merrill.Google Scholar
Regenstreif, Peter. 1969. “Note on the ‘Alternation’ of French and English Leaders in the Liberal Party of Canada.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 2 (1): 118–22.Google Scholar
Reid, Escott. 1932. “The Rise of National Parties in Canada.” Papers and Proceedings of the Canadian Political Science Association 4: 187200.Google Scholar
Saideman, Stephen M., Lanoue, David J., Campenni, Michael and Stanton, Samuel. 2002. “Democratization, Political Institutions, and Ethnic Conflict.” Comparative Political Studies 35 (1): 103–29.Google Scholar
Sawatsky, John. 1991. Mulroney: The Politics of Ambition. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart.Google Scholar
Smith, Denis. 1971. Bleeding Hearts … Bleeding Country: Canada and the Quebec Crisis. Edmonton: Hurtig.Google Scholar
Uhlaner, Carole J. 1989a. “Rational Turnout: The Neglected Role of Groups.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (2): 390422.Google Scholar
Uhlaner, Carole J. 1989b. “‘Relational Goods’ and Participation: Incorporating Sociability into a Theory of Rational Action.” Public Choice 62 (3): 253–85.Google Scholar
Ward, Norman. 1950. The Canadian House of Commons: Representation. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Willison, Sir John S. 1903. Wilfrid Laurier and the Liberal Party: A Political History. 2 vols. Toronto: George N. Morang.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Johnston supplementary material

Johnston supplementary material 1

Download Johnston supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 130.1 KB
Supplementary material: File

Johnston supplementary material

Johnston supplementary material 2

Download Johnston supplementary material(File)
File 29.6 KB