1 Schroeder, Paul, “Alliances, 1815–1939: Weapons of Rawer and Tools of Management,” in Knorr, Klaus (ed.), Historical Dimensions of National Security Problems (Lawrence, Kansas: University Press of Kansas, 1976), 231. (Emphasis in the original.)Google Scholar

2 baron, A. D., McNair, The Laws of Treaties (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1961), 27.Google Scholar

3 Schroeder, “Alliances,” 230–31.

4 Ibid., 256.

5 There are many more studies of alliances and war at the “system level of analysis” and one other at the “national level of analysis”—Singer, J. David and Small, Melvin, “National Alliance Commitments and War Involvement, 1815–1945,” in Rosenau, James N. (ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy (New York: The Free Press, 1969), 513–42.Google ScholarGood reasons for not discussing that study here are found in Moul, William B., “The Level of Analysis Problem Revisited,” this JOURNAL 6 (1973), 494–513.Google Scholar

6 Singer, and Small, , “Foreign Policy Indicators: Predictors of War in History and in the State of the World Message,” Policy Sciences 5 (1974), 293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

7 Levy, Jack, “Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495–1975,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 25 (1981), 610, 603.Google Scholar

8 Schroeder, “Alliances,” 255. He refers (n. 75) to the studies by Singer and Small.

9 At the beginning of his essay Schroeder prefers the technical definition of an alliance as a treaty with provision for the use of armed force in specific circumstances. He writes: “alliances must involve some measure of commitment to use force to achieve a common goal” (ibid., 227). However, in his survey he discusses agreements which do not meet the technical definition and at the end refers to the peaceful possibilities of associative–antagonistic relationships such as “alliances and quasi–alliances” (ibid., 256–57).

10 “Imperialism” in the power politics sense of the word— “a policy that aims at the overthrow of the status quo” between states (Morgenthau, Hans J., Politics Among Nations [4th ed.; New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1967], 42).Google Scholar

11 For a summary of the contagion arguments and evidence, see Wilkinson, David, Deadly Quarrels: Lewis F. Richardson and the Statistical Study of War (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980)Google Scholar, chap. 5.

12 Singer, J. Davidand Small, Melvin, The Wages of War, 1816–1965: A Statistical Handbook (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1972).Google Scholar The strong were the great powers: the United Kingdom, for the 1815–1945 duration; France, until defeat in 1940; Germany, out of Prussia by war, removed from the ranks by defeat in 1918, and restored to great power status in 1925; Russia, transformed into the USSR, defeated by Germany in the First World War, and recognized once more as a great power in 1922; Austria, later Austria–Hungary, until dismemberment in 1918; and Italy after unification in 1860.

13 Established political arrangements, according to his operational criterion, are those in existence for more than one year (James Lee Ray, “Status Inconsistency and War Involvement Among European States, 1816–1970” [unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan, 1974], 48–49).

14 They also conform to the results of attempts to make distinctions more precise. See Wallace, Michael D., “Clusters of Nations in the Global System, 1865–1964,“ International Studies Quarterly 19 (1975), 67–109CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Singer, J. David and Small, Melvin, “The Composition and Status Ordering of the International System: 1815–1940,” World Politics 18 (1966), 236–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

15 Small, Melvin and Singer, J. David, “Formal Alliances, 1816–1965: An Extension of the Basic Data,” Journal of Peace Research 6 (1969), 262CrossRefGoogle Scholar: and Singer, J. David and Small, Melvin, “Formal Alliances, 1815–1939: A Quantitative Description,” Journal of Peace Research, 3 (1966), 1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

16 Because ententes are nebulous agreements they are often distinguished from alliances proper. Note the title of Helge Granfelt's book and Robert Kann's article: Alliances and Ententes as Political Weapons: From Bismarck's Alliance System to the Present Time (Lund: Fahlbeck Foundation, 1970)Google Scholar, and “Alliances Versus Ententes, ” World Politics, 28 (1976), 611–21. In her attempt to distinguish two types of agreement Granfelt notes a pertinent difference: “Ententes often contend [contain?] orders concerning the disturbing of status quo of weaker states” (15).

17 Singer and Small, “Formal Alliances,” 5. They are, however, less cautious with contaminating the independence of observations when analyzing the data. Examine Table 15 in “Foreign Policy Indicators.” The unit of analysis is the major–power–year and interdependent observations are manufactured by counting each state's entry into war within three years of any observation. Furthermore, if a state is allied in yearT and not allied in year T +1 and entered war in year T+2, the observations at T and T+1 contribute error, not information, to the cross–tabulation. Close should not count: at any year a state is in an alliance or is not, enters a war or does not. More to the point, Singer and Small evaluate the association between alliance participation and war entry with a test of the statistical significance of the proportions in a cross–tabulation of 887 major–power–years. The test assumes independent observations but all the major–power–years are combined in the one table. Therefore, the tacit assumption is that in any one year state A's alliance with state B is independent of B's alliance with A and that state B's war against state C is independent of C's war with B. Finally, presuming independent observations of major–power–years turns temporal continuity into a technical distraction to be overcome rather than a welcomed fact of history to be accommodated. Common statistical procedures inhibit the study of relations between states and the relations between states corrupt statistical analysis.

18 These are: Russia–France, 1859: Austria–Prussia, 1863–1864: Austria–France, 1866; and the USSR–Germany, 1939. The second mentioned is discussed in Pottinger, E. Ann, Napoleon HI and the German Crisis, 1865–1866 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966)Google Scholar. My sources for the others are listed in footnotes 24, 34 and 43.

19 Text in Pribram, Alfred F., The Secret Treaties of Austria–Hungary. 1879–1914, Vol. I (1920; New York: Howard Fertig, 1967), 184–95.Google Scholar

20 This is very different from Levy's inference that “alliances were rarely followed by war, and wars were rarely preceded by alliances” during the nineteenth century. The two analyses are not directly comparable. First, “preceded” and “followed” are operationally restricted to within five years of alliance formation. Second, Levy does not distinguish activist wars against non–great powers from other great power wars. Third, he includes but does not distinguish between defense and neutrality pacts and excludes ententes and nonaggression agreements because they “do not formally specify the conditions under which force will or will not be employed'' (588). Fourth, a small point. Levy tabulates observations on states and not on alliances. His table describes the number of states which had various proportions of their alliances followed by wars and of their wars preceded by alliances. Consider an example: States A and B form a neutrality pact; B fights a war with another state; and A keeps to the agreement to remain neutral. The observations on A and B would contribute differently to the table and the inference from individual states to alliances would not be proper. Alliance relations between states are turned into attributes of individual states.

21 So begins a classic account. Morley, John cited in Marriott, J. A. R., The Eastern Question: An Historical Study in European Diplomacy (4th ed.; Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1940), 1.Google Scholar

22 Text in Hurst, Michael (ed.), Key Treaties for the Great Powers, 1814–1914, Vol. I (1814–1870) (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1972), 183.Google Scholar See also, Crawley, C. W., The Question of Greek Independence: A Study of British Policy in the Near East, 1821–1833 (1930; New York: Fertig, 1973), 76–78.Google Scholar

23 Seton–Watson, R. W., Britain in Europe 1789–1914: A Survey of Foreign Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1955), 127–25.Google Scholar

24 Clarke, Chester Weels, Franz Joseph and Bismarck: The Diplomacy of Austria Before the War of 1866 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1934), 59Google Scholar; Steefel, Lawrence D., The Schleswig–Holstein Question (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1932), 79–109Google Scholar. (Emphasis in the original.)

25 Cited in Clarke, Franz Joseph and Bismarck, 63, n. 28.

26 Taylor, A. J. P., The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848–1918 (London: Oxford University Press, 1954), 145.Google Scholar

27 Metternich to Hugel, October 22, 1833, and Article II of the treaty. Texts in Price Metternich, Richard (ed.), Memoirs of Prince Metternich, 1830–1835 (New York: Howard Fertig, 1970), 367, 374–76.Google Scholar

28 Ibid., 368. (Emphasis in the original.)

29 Puryear, Vernon J., England, Russia and the Straits Question (1931; Hamden: Archron Books, 1965), 23–24. Appendix B contains the Separate and Secret Articles of the Convention of Munchengratz.'Google Scholar

30 Ibid.

31 Memorandum by Count Nesselrode, June 1844, British Sessional Papers, Vol. 71, House of Commons, 1854. (Emphasis added.) The “if we forsee that it must crumble” was the Russian revision of the original “if it crumble.” See Puryear, , England, Russia, and the Straints, 67–68.Google Scholar

32 Clayton, G. D., Britain and the Eastern Question: Missolonglii to Gallipoli (London: Lion Library, 1971), 98.Google Scholar

33 Article II of the 1877 alliance. Texts of Austrian/Russian alliances are in Pribram, Alfred F., The Secret Treaties of Austria–Hungary, 1879–1914Google Scholar, Vol. II, Appendix B. See also Rupp, George H., A Wavering Friendship: Russia and Austria, 1876–1878 (Philadelphia: Porcupine Press, 1976)Google Scholar: and Lobanov–Rostovsky, A., Russia and Europe, 1825–1878 (Ann Arbor: George Wahr Publishing Company, 1954).Google Scholar

34 The alliance between France and Russia marked in Figure 2 helped prepare the way for the War of Italian Unification between France and Austria and was separate from the entente between France and the United Kingdom. See Sumner, B. H., “The Secret Franco–Russian Treaty of 3 March 1859,” The English Historical Review 89 (1933), 65–83CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and for an analysis of nondefense alliances and wars between great powers see my “Balances of Power and Great Power War, 1815–1939: A Suggestion and Some Evidence.” This article began as a footnote in the latter.

35 Text in Bock, Carl H., Prelude to Tragedy: The Negotiation and Breakdown of the Tripartite Convention of London, October 31, 1861 (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1966), Appendix L.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

36 Ibid., 447.

37 Ibid., 452.

38 Texts in Pribram, The Secret Treaties of Austria–Hungary. Vol. 11, Appendix C, 240–59.Google Scholar

39 Text in Manhart, Alliance and Entente, 1871–1914 (New York: F. S. Crofts, 1932), 62.Google Scholar This was contrary to the separate entente between Italy and Austria–Hungary concerning Article X of the Triple Alliance.

40 Askew, William C., Europe and Italy's Acquisition of Libya, 1911–1912 (Durham: Duke University Press, 1942), 23.Google Scholar

41 Toynbee, Arnold J. with Boulter, U. M., Survey of International Affairs, 1935, Vol. 1 (London: Oxford University Press, 1936), 91.Google Scholar

42 Watt, D. C., “Document: The Secret Laval–Mussolini Agreement of 1935 on Ethiopia,” Middle East Journal 15 (1961), 74.Google Scholar Some texts of the agreements have not been published. Askew, William C., “The Secret Agreement Between France and Italy on Ethiopia, January 1935,” The Journal of Modern History 25 (1953), 47–48 contains further extracts.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

43 Toynbee, Arnold J. (ed.), Documents on International Affairs, 1939–1946, Vol. I (March–September 1939) (London: Oxford University Press, 1951), 408.Google Scholar

44 Randolph M. Siverson's and Joel King's findings differ when they examine alliances and wars in general, and differ less when they examine attributes of alliance memberships. Compare “Alliances and the Expansion of War,” in Singer, J. David and Wallace, Michael D. (eds.), To Augur Well: Early Warning Indicators in World Politics (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1979), 37–49;Google Scholar and “Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation, 1815–1965,” American Journal of Political Science 24 (1980), 1–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

45 The apparent successes in doing so should not be taken as signs of alliance unreliability as they are taken to be in Alan Ned Sabrosky, “Interstate Alliances: Their Reliability and the Expansion of War,” in Singer, J. David (ed.), The Correlates of War 11: Testing Some Realpolitik Models (New York: The Free Press, 1980), 182–83.Google Scholar

46 Cited in Crabb, Cecil V. Jr., The Elephants and the Grass: A Study of Nonalignment (New York: Praeger, 1965), 2.Google Scholar

47 This is also the thrust of Brian Job's recent review ' 'Grins Without Cats: In Pursuit of Knowledge of Intemation Alliances,” in Hopmann, P. Terrence, Zinnes, Dina A. and Singer, J. David (eds.), Cumulation in International Relations Research (Denver: Graduate School of International Studies, 1981), 39–64Google Scholar and the conclusion to Alexandroff's, Alan S.The Logic of Diplomacy (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1981), an events data analysis of great power alliances during 1870–1890.Google Scholar