It is an old axiom, replete with common sense, that there is no more uncertain field for prophecy than that of practical politics. This is especially true when any forecast must be made fourteen months ahead of time. All that the observer of contemporary American politics may do is to sum up, as far as possible, the existing state of affairs, and then make a series of guesses as to what may eventuate. This present article is written with these conditions in mind, and should be read in the same spirit.

The present political situation would appear to be as follows. Normally, there are at least five million more Republicans than Democrats in the country. This is in large part due to the secession from the Democratic party in 1896 of large numbers of young men, just entering upon adult life or experiencing their first taste of business and finance, who were hostile to the late William J. Bryan and his “free silver” theories. These young men later were added to in large number by the strong, dominant, and attractive personality of Theodore Roosevelt, who typified to them the American spirit. Also the great, underlying influence of economic expansion, the financial and business domination of much of our national life, and the frank acceptance of these conditions by the Republican leaders of the first decade of this century strengthened and accelerated this movement in favor of the “Grand Old Party.” The young men of that time, now grown to middle age and national leadership in many walks of life, are the backbone of the financial support of the party today. And they have brought up their children to the same political allegiance.