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From Abe Fortas to Zoë Baird: Why Some Presidential Nominations Fail in the Senate

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Glen S. Krutz ,
Richard Fleisher  and
Jon R. Bond
Glen S. Krutz
Affiliation:
Texas A&M University
Richard Fleisher
Affiliation:
Fordham University
Jon R. Bond
Affiliation:
Texas A&M University
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Abstract

Why, given a strong presumption of success, do some presidential nominations fail? Of 1,464 important nominations from 1965 to 1994, less than 5% failed. Ninety-four percent of failures were rejected or withdrawn before reaching the floor, suggesting that opponents are most effective during prefloor stages. We propose a theoretical framework based on the notion that policy entrepreneurs pursue their goals within the context of a presumption of success. Logit analysis tends to support the theory that entrepreneurs can alter the presumption of success and defeat a nomination if they (1) identify negative information about a nominee to provide a rationale for changing the presumption and (2) expand the conflict through committee hearings and the media. Presidential resources—high public approval and efforts to signal that the nomination is a high priority—increase the chances of confirmation. Contrary to previous research, divided government has no independent effect on the fate of nominations.

Type
Research Note
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 92 , Issue 4 , December 1998 , pp. 871 - 881
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1998

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