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SIR epidemics with stages of infection

  • Claude Lefèvre (a1) and Matthieu Simon (a1)


In this paper we are concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed homogeneously mixing population when an infective can go through several stages of infection before being removed. The transitions between stages are governed by either a Markov process or a semi-Markov process. An infective of any stage makes contacts amongst the population at the points of a Poisson process. Our main purpose is to derive the distribution of the final epidemic size and severity, as well as an approximation by branching, using simple matrix analytic methods. Some illustrations are given, including a model with treatment discussed by Gani (2006).


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* Postal address: Département de Mathématique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Campus de la Plaine C.P. 210, B-1050 Bruxelles, Belgium.
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