INTRODUCTION

France is one of the European countries that devotes considerable funding to protect livestock against wolves. However, since 2010, wolf attacks on sheep have steadily increased, and, from 2015, attacks on cattle have also intensified. This is despite widespread application of protection measures. This has led to more authorised wolf culling (Borelli and Landry 2021). The depredations are not evenly distributed over wolf/livestock herding ranges, with some sheep pastures more affected than others. The number of wolf attacks and sheep losses also shows an uneven distribution (De Roince 2016; PNA Loup 2018–2023). Interestingly, analysis of wolf livestock attacks, integrating environmental and agro-pastoral factors does not explain the significant disparities of wolf attacks and damages (Mounet 2002; Hemery 2008; Plisson 2011; De Roince 2016). However, some authors believe that the highly vegetated, rocky landscapes and generally harsh terrain of the French Mediterranean and the Southern Alps are determinant environmental factors to consider regarding the difficulties of protecting livestock against wolves (Garde 2015). These areas offering year-round grazing due to the low snow cover, potentially exposing livestock (predominantly sheep) to wolf predation year-round (Garde 2015).

Understanding the effectiveness of currently applied protection systems on the sole basis of administrative data (including the number of livestock guarding dogs (LGDs), the presence/ absence of night fencing and shepherd's presence) and from interviews with livestock holders (De Roince 2016) sheds insufficient light on the situation. There is a corresponding lack of rigorous data regarding pastoral vulnerability and the associated suitability of livestock protection systems in relation to wolf ecology and behaviour.

The estimated number of wolves in France has increased by 36% since 2020, currently set at around 920 (DREAL Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes 2022a). The 2018–2023 National Wolf Action Plan provides the option of an annual cull of up to 19% of the wolf population (ie 174 wolves, based on current estimates), in order to reduce further livestock predation following an attack (DREAL Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes 2022b).

The percentage of wolves to be culled is based on collective scientific expertise, theoretically kept at the limit for sustaining the French wolf population (Duchamp et al 2017). The minimum population viability (MPV) threshold, according to Steeves et al (2017) is 500 individuals, whilst the genetic viability threshold corresponds to a minimum of 2500 adults.