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7 - Performance Monitoring for Supervisory Stress-Testing Models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 March 2023

David Lynch
Affiliation:
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Iftekhar Hasan
Affiliation:
Fordham University Graduate Schools of Business
Akhtar Siddique
Affiliation:
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
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Summary

Stress-testing models pose a unique set of challenges with respect to performance monitoring. In particular, unlike standard forecasting models that generate unconditional forecasts, stress-testing models generate conditional forecasts based on stress scenarios that are unlikely to occur. This critical difference greatly limits one’s ability to assess model projections with observed outcomes. We provide several different methods for this purpose

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Chapter
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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2023

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