Amsterdam is doing well. The population is growing, the economy is picking up, and prosperity is increasing. Since Glaeser's Triumph of the City (2011) and Barber's If Mayors ruled the World (2013) the self-assurance of policymakers and administrators has grown with respect to the future of the city. So much so, in fact, that success seems a foregone conclusion. So much so that little attention is given to the downside of success. So much so that it is hard to initiate a discussion about which future city is the most desirable. Even if the city were to have a population of two million and free zones for start-ups in the foreseeable future, and were to receive many more tourists – meaning that it remains successful in the eyes of many – this discussion remains relevant. Currently, it is too easy to think that all ongoing changes (new lifestyles, developments in the housing market and labour market) will by themselves lead the way to the optimum city of the future. However, these changes can lead to overexploitation: the city and urban society can also lose much that is valuable.

Three questions need to be addressed in this discussion on the future of the city. The first question relates to the sustainability of the success: how certain is it actually that the current success will continue? The second question is whether enough attention is being devoted to the downside of the growth scenarios. And finally, how will we all decide about the future of the city? In other words: what is the democratic basis for the discussion about the future of the city, which also aims to be a responsible capital and which also plays an important regional function?

The success of Amsterdam

Who, at the end of the 1970s and the start of the 1980s, could have predicted the current success of Amsterdam? The outdated housing stock, the rise of the car and the decentralisation policy were at the time leading to suburbanisation. The city was emptying and at its low point had a population of around 675,000. This is now over 830,000, and Amsterdam is one of the fastest-growing cities in the Netherlands.