Introduction

A conspicuous feature of many naturally limited populations of long-lived vertebrates is their relative stability. Both in populations that are regulated by predation or culling and in food-limited populations, population size can persist at approximately the same level for decades or even centuries (Runyoro et al. 1995; Waser et al. 1995; Clutton-Brock et al. 1997a; Newton 1998). The persistent fluctuations shown by Soay sheep and by some other island populations of ungulates (Boyd 1981; Leader-Williams 1988; Boussès 1991) raise general questions about the causes and consequences of variation in the stability of populations (see section 1.2). How regular are they? How are they related to population density? What are their immediate causes? To what extent do fluctuations in food availability, parasite number or predator density contribute to them? And what are their effects on development and on the phenotypic quality of animals born at contrasting population densities? And how much do changes in phenotype contribute to changes in dynamics?

As yet, there are very few cases where we understand either the ecological causes or the demographic consequences of persistent fluctuations in the size of naturally regulated populations of mammals (Hanski 1987; Saether 1997). Since we are able to monitor the growth, movements, breeding success and survival of large samples of individuals as population density changes, the Soay sheep offer an opportunity to investigate the causes and consequences of changes in population size with unusual precision (see Chapter 1).