The Problem

This chapter outlines a few approaches to the basic problem of auto-contingency. What is the problem? Briefly, in sequential analysis we want to determine if we can predict the occurrence of code B at time t + 1 by knowing that code A occurred at time t. Usually we have a dyad we are observing, and the B codes come from observing one person's behavior while the A codes come from observing the other person's behavior. The standard we employ to evaluate the prediction is the amount of improvement over the unconditional probability of, p(B). However, there is another standard that makes a lot more sense when we try to establish a causal link between A and B. That standard follows from the fact that knowing that B occurred at time t would lead, in many cases, to gain in prediction over and above the unconditional, p(B). Hence, the test for sequential connection could be made more stringent by comparing p(B| A) not with p(B) but with the residual from p(B) obtained from predicting B's occurrence by own B's past behavior. This could be viewed simply as an adjustment to p(B) in the numerator of our usual z-scores for sequential connection. The nature of this adjustment is the subject of this chapter. Currently, we have little experience with such solutions, and thus our review is entirely theoretical. As we gain experience, we will be able to say more about the relative merits of the alternative reviewed here.