With the end of the Cold War, the liberation and democratization of Eastern Europe, and the subsequent expansion and deepening of the EU, there were widely shared expectations throughout the 1990s that a united Europe of 500 million people would soon become a truly major power in world affairs and a model for the rest of the world. That was then. With the passage of time, the spread of globalization, and the rise of China and BRICS, the relative influence of America's longtime allies, Europe and Japan, has eroded as these traditional centers of power have experienced economic and demographic stagnation. Europe today remains less than the sum of its parts, faces deep structural and political divisions, possesses rapidly declining military forces, and lacks both the capability and political will to address the most urgent and important problems of world order. At the same time, the Atlantic partnership has weakened as the United States has downplayed its European commitments and Europeans themselves have become less capable and more inclined to hedge their bets. As a consequence, the centrality of the United States in sustaining that order has increased, even as America's own engagement has lessened and its relative standing is challenged.

To understand what has happened and why, it is important to reexamine the initial post–World War II era of American leadership and European development, the widely shared post–Cold War vision for Europe's future and global order, and the impact of globalization and changing demography on Europe and Japan.

THE COLD WAR ERA AND GLOBAL ORDER

For more than half a century the advanced industrial democracies established and sustained international institutions and global order. The “trilateral” powers (North America, Western Europe, and Japan) served as the pillars of that order, which included not only the United Nations, but functional and regional organizations encompassing, inter alia, economics, monetary policy, trade, investment, development, health, human rights, aviation, communications, security, and international law.

In retrospect, this may seem a halcyon period, with rapid economic growth and rising living standards, expansion of shared institutions, and cooperation under American Cold War leadership. But collaboration among these powers was by no means seamless, and though it may appear otherwise, there was no shortage of disputes among them over issues large and small.