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1 - Introduction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

David Stirzaker
David Stirzaker
Affiliation:
University of Oxford
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Summary

I shot an arrow into the air

It fell to earth, I knew not where.

H.W. Longfellow

O! many a shaft at random sent

Finds mark the archer little meant.

W. Scott

PREVIEW

This chapter introduces probability as a measure of likelihood, which can be placed on a numerical scale running from 0 to 1. Examples are given to show the range and scope of problems that need probability to describe them. We examine some simple interpretations of probability that are important in its development, and we briefly show how the well-known principles of mathematical modelling enable us to progress. Note that in this chapter exercises and problems are chosen to motivate interest and discussion; they are therefore non-technical, and mathematical answers are not expected.

Prerequisites. This chapter contains next to no mathematics, so there are no prerequisites. Impatient readers keen to get to an equation could proceed directly to chapter 2.

PROBABILITY

We all know what light is, but it is not easy to tell what it is.

Samuel Johnson

From the moment we first roll a die in a children's board game, or pick a card (any card), we start to learn what probability is. But even as adults, it is not easy to tell what it is, in the general way.

Type
Chapter
Information
Probability and Random Variables
A Beginner's Guide
 , pp. 1 - 28
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1999

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  • Introduction
  • David Stirzaker, University of Oxford
  • Book: Probability and Random Variables
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511813627.004
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To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Introduction
  • David Stirzaker, University of Oxford
  • Book: Probability and Random Variables
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511813627.004
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Introduction
  • David Stirzaker, University of Oxford
  • Book: Probability and Random Variables
  • Online publication: 05 June 2012
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511813627.004
Available formats
×