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21 - Benefits and Costs of the Population and Demography Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2018

Hans-Peter Kohler
Affiliation:
Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography, University of Pennsylvania, USA
Jere R. Behrman
Affiliation:
W. R. Kenan, Jr. Professor of Economics and Director of Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, USA
Bjorn Lomborg
Affiliation:
Copenhagen Business School
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Summary

Background

Prioritizing the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda on Population and Demography requires a recognition that national demographic trajectories are currently more diverse than in the middle and late twentieth century. Wealthy countries of Europe, Asia, and the Americas face rapid population aging, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen. And many of the world's poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to face premature mortality, high fertility, and often unmet need for contraception.

The Report of the Global Thematic Consultation on Population Dynamics (UNFPA, UNDESA, UN-HABITAT, IOM, 2013; thereafter GTC-PD Report) highlights three central aspects of how population dynamics affect the post-2015 development agenda:

  • Population dynamics are at the center of the main development challenges of the twenty-first century and must therefore be addressed in the post-2015 development agenda.

  • Mega population trends – population growth, population aging, migration, and urbanization – present both important developmental challenges and opportunities that have direct and indirect implications for social, economic, and environmental development.

  • Demography is not destiny. Rights-based and gender-responsive policies can address and harness population dynamics.

  • The GTC-PD Report then groups the specific policy options in four thematic priority areas: high fertility and population growth, low fertility and population aging, migration and human mobility, and urbanization. Closely related recommendations were adopted as part of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Beyond 2014 Global Report (UNFPA, 2014), which is the culmination of a landmark UN review of progress, gaps, challenges and emerging issues in relation to the ICPD Programme of Action. These two reports are important because they are likely to shape the international agenda on population.

    The goal of this chapter is to discuss the post- 2015 development agenda in the area of Population and Demography, focusing primarily on aspects of population size, age structure, and geographic distribution. It is important also to highlight that “population quality,” including human capital such as health and education, is an important further aspect of population dynamics that is essential for addressing the challenges of future population changes and for realizing the benefits of population dynamics for social, economic, and environmental development (Behrman and Kohler, 2014).

    Type
    Chapter
    Information
    Prioritizing Development
    A Cost Benefit Analysis of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals
    , pp. 375 - 394
    Publisher: Cambridge University Press
    Print publication year: 2018

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