Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-sjtt6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-27T08:49:42.610Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 15 - Benefits and Costs of the HIV/AIDS Targets for the Post-2015 Development Agenda

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2018

Bjorn Lomborg
Affiliation:
Copenhagen Business School
Get access

Summary

Thirty years after the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was first identified, the HIV epidemic continues to cause large-scale human suffering and economic losses. Since featuring prominently in the MDGs, HIV has received unprecedented global political and financial commitment, being allocated 25% of all international assistance for health in 2011. But, despite significant successes, the goal will not be achieved and the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is still one of the most important causes of loss of life and health. The global HIV response will thus have to be a major continued focus of national and international development strategies after 2015.
Type
Chapter
Information
Prioritizing Development
A Cost Benefit Analysis of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals
, pp. 277 - 286
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2018

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aghokeng, A. F., Monleau, M., Eymard-Duvernay, S., et al. (2014). Extraordinary heterogeneity of virological outcomes in patients receiving highly antiretroviral therapy and monitored with the World Health Organization public health approach in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia. Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 58(1), 99109. doi:10.1093/cid/cit627.Google Scholar
Auvert, B., Taljaard, D., Lagarde, E., et al. (2005). Randomized, controlled intervention trial of male circumcision for reduction of HIV infection risk: the ANRS 1265 Trial. PLoS Medicine, 2(11), e298. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020298.Google Scholar
Bacchetti, P., & Moss, A. R. (1989). Incubation period of AIDS in San Francisco. Nature, 338(6212), 251–3. doi:10.1038/338251a0.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bailey, N. T. (1997). A revised assessment of the HIV/AIDS incubation period, assuming a very short early period of high infectivity and using only San Francisco public health data on prevalence and incidence. Statistics in Medicine, 16(21), 2447–58. Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9364653.Google Scholar
Bailey, R. C., Moses, S., Parker, C. B., et al. (2007). Male circumcision for HIV prevention in young men in Kisumu, Kenya: a randomised controlled trial. Lancet, 369(9562), 643–56. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60312-2.Google Scholar
Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D. E., & Humair, S. (2012a). Economics of antiretroviral treatment vs. circumcision for HIV prevention. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(52), 21271–6. doi:10.1073/pnas.1209017110.Google Scholar
Bärnighausen, T., Bloom, D. E., & Humair, S. (2014). Human resources for treating HIV/AIDS: are the preventive effects of antiretroviral treatment a game changer? PLoS One, 11(10), e0163960.Google Scholar
Bärnighausen, T., Chaiyachati, K., Chimbindi, N., et al. (2011). Interventions to increase antiretroviral adherence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of evaluation studies. The Lancet. Infectious Diseases, 11(12), 942–51. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(11)70181-5.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bärnighausen, T., Humair, S., & Bloom, D. (2012b). Is HIV treatment-as-prevention a “game-changer”? An economic evaluation of HIV combination prevention. In International HIV Treatment as Prevention (TasP) Workshop. Vancouver.Google Scholar
Behrman, J. R., & Kohler, H.-P. (2011). Assessment Paper: Sexual Transmission of HIV. In Lomborg, B. (Ed.), Rethink HIV. New York: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/behrman_kohler.pdf.Google Scholar
Bollinger, L., Adesina, A., Forsythe, S., et al. (2014). Cost drivers for voluntary medical male circumcision using primary source data from sub-Saharan Africa. PloS One, 9(5), e84701. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0084701.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bor, J., Herbst, A. J., Newell, M.-L., & Bärnighausen, T. (2013). Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment. Science (New York, N.Y.), 339(6122), 961–5. doi:10.1126/science.1230413.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bor, J., Tanser, F., Newell, M.-L., & Bärnighausen, T. (2012). In a study of a population cohort in South Africa, HIV patients on antiretrovirals had nearly full recovery of employment. Health Affairs (Project Hope), 31(7), 1459–69. doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2012.0407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chinkhumba, J., Godlonton, S., & Thornton, R. (2014). The Demand for Medical Male Circumcision. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 6(2), 152177. doi:10.1257/app.6.2.152.Google Scholar
Coates, T. J., Kulich, M., Celentano, D. D., et al. (2014). Effect of community-based voluntary counselling and testing on HIV incidence and social and behavioural outcomes (NIMH Project Accept; HPTN 043): a cluster-randomised trial. The Lancet. Global Health, 2(5), e267–77. doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70032-4.Google Scholar
Cohen, M. S., Chen, Y. Q., McCauley, M et al. (2011). Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy. The New England Journal of Medicine, 365(6), 493505. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1105243.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Curran, K., Njeuhmeli, E., Mirelman, A., et al. (2011). Voluntary medical male circumcision: strategies for meeting the human resource needs of scale-up in southern and eastern Africa. PLoS Medicine, 8(11), e1001129. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001129.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dieleman, J. L., Graves, C. M., Templin, T., et al. (2014). Global health development assistance remained steady in 2013 but did not align with recipients’ disease burden. Health Affairs (Project Hope), 33(5), 878–86. doi:10.1377/hlthaff.2013.1432.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eaton, J. W., Johnson, L. F., Salomon, J. A., et al. (2012). HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Medicine, 9(7), e1001245. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245.Google Scholar
Essex, M., DeGruttola, V., Lebelonyane, R., & Habibi, S. El. (2013). Botswana Combination Prevention Project. Retrieved February 20, 2015, from https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01965470.Google Scholar
Finitsis, D. J., Pellowski, J. A., & Johnson, B. T. (2014). Text message intervention designs to promote adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART): a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. PloS One, 9(2), e88166. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0088166.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fonner, V. A., Denison, J., Kennedy, C. E., O’Reilly, K., & Sweat, M. (2012). Voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) for changing HIV-related risk behavior in developing countries. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 9, CD001224. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD001224.pub4.Google ScholarPubMed
Ford, N., Chu, K., & Mills, E. J. (2012). Safety of task-shifting for male medical circumcision: a systematic review and meta-analysis. AIDS (London, England), 26(5), 559–66. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32834f3264.Google Scholar
Gray, R. H., Kigozi, G., Serwadda, D., et al. (2007). Male circumcision for HIV prevention in men in Rakai, Uganda: a randomised trial. Lancet, 369(9562), 657–66. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60313-4.Google Scholar
Hankins, C., Forsythe, S., & Njeuhmeli, E. (2011). Voluntary medical male circumcision: an introduction to the cost, impact, and challenges of accelerated scaling up. PLoS Medicine, 8(11), e1001127. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Havlir, D., & Kamya, M. (2013). Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health. Retrieved February 20, 2015, from https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01864603.Google Scholar
Hayes, R., Ayles, H., Beyers, N., et al. (2014). HPTN 071 (PopART): rationale and design of a cluster-randomised trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment – a study protocol for a cluster randomised trial. Trials, 15, 57. doi:10.1186/1745-6215-15-57.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda. (2014). A new global partnership: eradicate poverty and transform economies through sustainable development. New York City. Retrieved from http://www.post2015hlp.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/UN-Report.pdf.Google Scholar
Hollingsworth, T. D., Anderson, R. M., & Fraser, C. (2008). HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection. The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 198(5), 687–93. doi:10.1086/590501.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
International Monetary Fund. (2004). The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. (Haacker, M., Ed.) (Vol. 19, p. 344). Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Iwuji, C. C., Orne-Gliemann, J., Tanser, F et al. (2013). Evaluation of the impact of immediate versus WHO recommendations-guided antiretroviral therapy initiation on HIV incidence: the ANRS 12249 TasP (Treatment as Prevention) trial in Hlabisa sub-district, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial. Trials, 14, 230. doi:10.1186/1745-6215-14-230.Google Scholar
Kennedy, C. E., Fonner, V. A., Sweat, M. D., et al. (2013). Provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review. AIDS and Behavior, 17(5), 1571–90. doi:10.1007/s10461-012-0241-y.Google Scholar
Kranzer, K., Govindasamy, D., Ford, N., Johnston, V., & Lawn, S. D. (2012). Quantifying and addressing losses along the continuum of care for people living with HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review. Journal of the International AIDS Society, 15(2), 17383. doi:10.7448/ias.15.2.17383.Google Scholar
Lissouba, P., Taljaard, D., Rech, D., et al. (2010). A model for the roll-out of comprehensive adult male circumcision services in African low-income settings of high HIV incidence: the ANRS 12126 Bophelo Pele Project. PLoS Medicine, 7(7), e1000309. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lomazzi, M., Borisch, B., & Laaser, U. (2014). The Millennium Development Goals: experiences, achievements and what’s next. Global Health Action, 7, 23695. Retrieved from http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=3926985&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mahler, H. R., Kileo, B., Curran, K., et al. (2011). Voluntary medical male circumcision: matching demand and supply with quality and efficiency in a high-volume campaign in Iringa Region, Tanzania. PLoS Medicine, 8(11), e1001131. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mills, E. J., Nachega, J. B., Bangsberg, D. R., et al. (2006). Adherence to HAART: a systematic review of developed and developing nation patient-reported barriers and facilitators. PLoS Medicine, 3(11), e438. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030438.Google Scholar
Mwandi, Z., Murphy, A., Reed, J., et al. (2011). Voluntary medical male circumcision: translating research into the rapid expansion of services in Kenya, 2008–2011. PLoS Medicine, 8(11), e1001130. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001130.Google Scholar
Njeuhmeli, E., Forsythe, S., Reed, J., et al. (2011). Voluntary medical male circumcision: modeling the impact and cost of expanding male circumcision for HIV prevention in eastern and southern Africa. PLoS Medicine, 8(11), e1001132. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001132.Google Scholar
Open Working Group of the General Assembly on Sustainable Development Goals. (2014). Open Working Group proposal for Sustainable Development Goals. New York City. Retrieved from http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/1579SDGs Proposal.pdf.Google Scholar
Ortblad, K. F., Lozano, R., & Murray, C. J. L. (2013). The burden of HIV: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. AIDS (London, England), 27(13), 2003–17. doi:10.1097/QAD.0b013e328362ba67.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Over, M., & Garnett, G. (2011). Assessment Paper: Treatment. In Lomborg, B. (Ed.), Rethink HIV. New York: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/over_garnett.pdf.Google Scholar
Rosen, S., Larson, B., Rohr, J., et al. (2014). Effect of antiretroviral therapy on patients’ economic well being: five-year follow-up. AIDS (London, England), 28(3), 417–24. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000000053.Google Scholar
Sgaier, S. K., Reed, J. B., Thomas, A., & Njeuhmeli, E. (2014). Achieving the HIV prevention impact of voluntary medical male circumcision: lessons and challenges for managing programs. PLoS Medicine, 11(5)., e1001641. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001641.Google Scholar
Stop AIDS Now! (2014). MaxART – Implementation Study on Treatment as Prevention. Retrieved October 23, 2014, from www.stopaidsnow.org/maxart-implementation-study-treatment-prevention.Google Scholar
Sustainable Development Solutions Network. (2014). Proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Targets. New York City. Retrieved from http://unsdsn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/140417-Goals-and-Targets1.pdf.Google Scholar
Suthar, A. B., Ford, N., Bachanas, P. J., et al. (2013). Towards universal voluntary HIV testing and counselling: a systematic review and meta-analysis of community-based approaches. PLoS Medicine, 10(8), e1001496. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001496.Google Scholar
Tanser, F., Bärnighausen, T., Grapsa, E., Zaidi, J., & Newell, M.-L. (2013). High coverage of ART associated with decline in risk of HIV acquisition in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Science (New York, N.Y.), 339(6122), 966–71. doi:10.1126/science.1228160.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Thirumurthy, H., Masters, S. H., Rao, S., et al. (2014). Effect of providing conditional economic compensation on uptake of voluntary medical male circumcision in Kenya: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA, 312(7), 703–11. doi:10.1001/jama.2014.9087.Google Scholar
Tobian, A. A. R., Kacker, S., & Quinn, T. C. (2014). Male circumcision: a globally relevant but under-utilized method for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Annual Review of Medicine, 65, 293306. doi:10.1146/annurev-med-092412-090539.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
UNAIDS. (2005). AIDS in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025. Geneva. Retrieved from http://data.unaids.org/publications/IRC-pub07/jc1058-aidsinafrica_en.pdf.Google Scholar
UNAIDS. (2013a). Access to antiretroviral therapy in Africa: Status report on progress towards the 2015 targets. Geneva. Retrieved from www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/20131219_AccessARTAfricaStatusReportProgresstowards2015Targets_en_0.pdf.Google Scholar
UNAIDS. (2013b). Global Report – UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2013. Geneva. Retrieved from www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/epidemiology/2013/gr2013/UNAIDS_Global_Report_2013_en.pdf.Google Scholar
UNAIDS. (2014b). What are the different epidemiological scenarios? Geneva. Retrieved from http://hivpreventiontoolkit.unaids.org/support_pages/faq_diff_epi_scenarios.aspx.Google Scholar
UNICEF. (2014). Protection, care and support for children affected by HIV and AIDS. Retrieved October 01, 2014, from http://data.unicef.org/hiv-aids/care-support.Google Scholar
United Nations. (2001). Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS. New York City. Retrieved from www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/dataimport/publications/irc-pub03/aidsdeclaration_en.pdf.Google Scholar
United Nations. (2011). Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS: Intensifying Our Efforts to Eliminate HIV and AIDS. New York City. Retrieved from www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/document/2011/06/20110610_UN_A-RES-65-277_en.pdf.Google Scholar
United Nations. (2014). United Nations Millennium Development Goals. United Nations. Retrieved September 30, 2014, from www.un.org/millenniumgoals/aids.shtml.Google Scholar
Vasilakis, C. (2012). The social economic impact of AIDS: Accounting for intergenerational transmission, productivity and fertility. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 369–81. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2011.11.006Google Scholar
Westercamp, N., & Bailey, R. C. (2007). Acceptability of male circumcision for prevention of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: a review. AIDS and Behavior, 11(3), 341–55. doi:10.1007/s10461-006-9169-4.Google Scholar
WHO. (2006). Antiretroviral therapy for HIV infection in adults and adolescents: recommendations for a public health approach. Geneva. Retrieved from www.who.int/hiv/pub/guidelines/artadultguidelines.pdf?ua=1.Google Scholar
WHO. (2008). Task shifting: global recommendations and guidelines. Geneva: World Health Organization. Retrieved from www.who.int/workforcealliance/knowledge/resources/taskshifting_guidelines/en/.Google Scholar
WHO. (2010a). Antiretroviral therapy for HIV infection in adults and adolescents: recommendations for a public health approach. Geneva. Retrieved from http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2010/9789241599764_eng.pdf?ua=1.Google Scholar
WHO. (2010b). Considerations for implementing models for optimizing the volume and efficiency of male circumcision services. Geneva. Retrieved from www.malecircumcision.org/programs/documents/mc_MOVE_2010_web.pdf.Google Scholar
WHO. (2013). Consolidated guidelines on the use of antiretroviral drugs for treating and preventing HIV infection. Geneva. Retrieved from http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/85321/1/9789241505727_eng.pdf.Google Scholar
WHO. (2014a). WHO Progress Brief – Voluntary medical male circumcision for HIV prevention in priority countries of East and Southern Africa. Geneva: World Health Organization. Retrieved from http://www.who.int/hiv/topics/malecircumcision/male-circumcision-info-2014/en/.Google Scholar
WHO. (2014b). World Health Statistics 2014. Geneva. Retrieved from http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/112738/1/9789240692671_eng.pdf?ua=1.Google Scholar
Williams, B. G., Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Gouws, E., et al. (2006). The potential impact of male circumcision on HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS Medicine, 3(7), e262. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030262.Google Scholar
World Bank and USAID. (2011). The Ethics of Material Incentives for HIV Prevention. Washington DC: Author Retrieved from http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTHIVAIDS/Resources/375798–1297872065987/WorldBankUSAIDDebate5Report.pdf.Google Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×