Despite the party's persistent troubles, in 1932 the Democratic New Deal coalition emerged. The party, long reliant on a Southern base, gained votes and seats outside the South, and gained a majority that persisted for some years. Although there was considerable change in where the party won votes, the relationship between presidential and House vote percentages remained remarkably stable from the 1920s through 1944. As indicated earlier in Figure 3.4, the correlation had fluctuated between .90 and .70 (excluding 1912) between 1900 and 1928. It was .81 in 1932 and 1936, and .83 in 1940 and 1944. This era is often described as one of realignment, which presumably means a significant shift in electoral alignments. Yet the correlation between voting for presidential and House candidates did not change. How does a party expand its base and bring in a significantly new electoral base while this association does not change?

Analyzing 1928–1932 Gains

The question facing Democrats in the 1920s was how to expand their base beyond the South, and to do so on a consistent basis. The issue within the party was whether to run presidential candidates who would appeal to northern urban constituencies and attract enduring support in those areas. Although in retrospect it appears clear which way the party should and would move, there was little clarity during the 1920s. The battle over what direction to take consumed the party during the 1920s, until the beginning of the Great Depression in 1929 gave the party electoral gains in 1930 and 1932 it had not been able to achieve before. The challenge then became how to retain the newly acquired support.