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4 - Ideological Moderates Won't Run for Congress

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  19 May 2017

Danielle M. Thomsen
Affiliation:
Syracuse University, New York
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Summary

Chapter 4 draws on Bonica’s (2014) CFscores to examine the decision to run for the U.S. House among state legislators from 2000 to 2010. The state legislator data are critical because they allow us to compare the potential runners with the actual runners. This chapter first shows that a sizeable number of liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats hold state legislative office. Nearly 30 percent of Democratic state legislators and 20 percent of Republican state legislators are at least as moderate as John Tanner (D-TN) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME). The main finding is that the probability of running for Congress varies dramatically across state legislators, and moderates are much less likely to seek higher office than those at the extremes. State legislators who resemble ideologues like Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) are 20 times more likely to run for a House seat than those who resemble moderates like Olympia Snowe and John Tanner. These findings hold even after controlling for seat type, district partisanship, legislator experience, and a variety of factors that also shape the decision to run for office.
Type
Chapter
Information
Opting Out of Congress
Partisan Polarization and the Decline of Moderate Candidates
, pp. 81 - 97
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2017

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