In this chapter we analyze the shifting balance of power between the BRICS+ and the West. We attempt to identify the impact of the rise of emerging economies in this respect. In this context the notion of national power comes to mind. National power can be defined as ‘all of the means available to the government in its pursuit of national objectives'. Some authors try to quantify national power by combining several variables measuring different elements of power into one aggregate index. In practice, however, national power is context-dependent and can be evaluated only in relation to other actor(s) and the situation in which power is being exercised. This limits the usefulness of aggregate measures of national power in any specific situation or event.

Our goal however is to evaluate medium- and long-term changes in power balances between states. In this respect the concept of national power and its constituting elements provide a useful framework for analysis. There are many possible elements of national power. However, the following five components are essential for any analysis:

• Population

• Economy

• Public finances

• Military power

• Technological sophistication

This chapter reviews broad trends in BRICS+ countries with respect to all five components over the last 10‒20 years. These trends within countries however, provide only a limited picture. In the next steps we will look at the interactions between BRICS+ and the West in various domains.

POPULATION

Demographic projections are among the most reliable in social sciences for future trends. For instance, the size of the labor force in a particular country in 20 years’ time is to a large extent already determined since young people who will join the labor force in that time are already born. Even when demographic dynamics in a country experience a rapid change, it typically takes many years for aggregate numbers to change significantly. Fertility patterns and demographic statistics are thus relevant measures for a country's future potential. Countries with rapidly rising populations will have a larger number of workers in the future and larger economic output, all other things being equal. However, when young people suffer from high unemployment and inequality, their large share in the population might increase the risk of political instability in that country.

Demographically, the BRICS+ countries do not bear many similarities (see Figure 1).