Contemporary observers frequently offered the recurring epidemics of the nineteenth century as an explanation for Tunisia's increasing weakness. Close analysis suggests that the sharp demographic decline cited by contemporaries and later by historians did not in fact take place. Mortality rates, however, confirm the importance of the epidemics as major historical events that, because of the context of the times, did lead to new forms of medicine and public health.

Population size

Contemporary estimates of the population of Tunisia during the nineteenth century range from 800,000 (Pellissier de Reynaud in 1853) to 5,000,000 (Duveyier in 1881); most fall within a range of one to two million. Verification of such estimates is hazardous; the lack of systematic method in collecting the figures tends to disqualify them. Most were at best obtained after a quick journey on horseback through rural regions and quick tours through towns where dwellings were haphazardly counted. The depopulation that witnesses ascribed to epidemic crises can be understood in part as a result of temporary migrations. At times, the migrations were to the cities in search of famine relief from food distribution centers. Settled and seminomadic groups often sought escape from increasingly heavy taxation, government repression, or bad living conditions by migrating toward Libya or Algeria. In 1853 Pellissier de Reynaud observed that‘ settled peoples had shown a great tendency to emigrate toward the tribes and their relative autonomy…. If the government does not find a remedy for this, it will find itself in a very embarrassing situation.’