Introduction

There is debate as to how NFL overtime games should be decided. In the current system a coin toss takes place and the team that wins has the choice to either kick-off or receive the ball. They can also defer this choice and choose an end of the field to defend. The game is played with regular NFL rules and the first team to score wins. In a regular season game the teams play for fifteen minutes, and if neither team scores the game is declared a tie. In the playoffs, where there must be a winner, they keep playing until someone scores.

Ideally, the winner in overtime should be independent of which team wins the toss, but this is not the case. In the period 2004–2008, 72 regular-season games went into overtime. Of those, 46 were won by the team that received the overtime kick-off, giving a success rate of 64% for the team winning the toss (with one exception, teams always opt to receive rather than kick in overtime.) Over this period the loser of the coin toss won 25 games or just 35% of the time, with one game ending tied. Thus the coin flip is important in determining the winning team. Many games are won by the team receiving the ball before the opposition's offense even gets a chance to go onto the field. Of the 72 overtime games, 28, or 39% were won without the kicking team's offense touching the ball.