Skip to main content Accessibility help
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 70
  • Print publication year: 2012
  • Online publication date: August 2012

Chapter 1 - Climate Change: New Dimensions in Disaster Risk, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Resilience

from Section III


Executive Summary

Disaster signifies extreme impacts suffered when hazardous physical events interact with vulnerable social conditions to severely alter the normal functioning of a community or a society (high confidence). Social vulnerability and exposure are key determinants of disaster risk and help explain why non-extreme physical events and chronic hazards can also lead to extreme impacts and disasters, while some extreme events do not. Extreme impacts on human, ecological, or physical systems derive from individual extreme or non-extreme events, or a compounding of events or their impacts (for example, drought creating the conditions for wildfire, followed by heavy rain leading to landslides and soil erosion). [,,, 1.3]

Management strategies based on the reduction of everyday or chronic risk factors and on the reduction of risk associated with non-extreme events, as opposed to strategies based solely on the exceptional or extreme, provide a mechanism that facilitates the reduction of disaster risk and the preparation for and response to extremes and disasters (high confidence). Effective adaptation to climate change requires an understanding of the diverse ways in which social processes and development pathways shape disaster risk. Disaster risk is often causally related to ongoing, chronic, or persistent environmental, economic, or social risk factors. [, 1.1.3,, 1.3.2]

Development practice, policy, and outcomes are critical to shaping disaster risk (high confidence). Disaster risk may be increased by shortcomings in development. Reductions in the rate of depletion of ecosystem services, improvements in urban land use and territorial organization processes, the strengthening of rural livelihoods, and general and specific advances in urban and rural governance advance the composite agenda of poverty reduction, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to climate change. [,, 1.1.3, 1.3.2, 1.3.3]

Related content

Powered by UNSILO
ACC, 2010: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change. America's Climate Choices, National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
Adger, W.N., 1996: Approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change. CSERGE Working Papers. University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
Adger, W.N., 2000: Social and ecological resilience: Are they related?Progress in Human Geography, 24(3), 347–364.
Adger, W.N., 2006: Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 268–281.
Adger, W.N., N., Arnell, and E.M., Thompkins, 2005: Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15, 77–86.
Alexander, D., 1993: Natural Disasters. UCL Press, London, 632 pp.
Alexander, D., 2000: Confronting Catastrophe. Oxford University Press, New York.
Anderson, M. and P., Woodrow, 1989: Rising from the Ashes: Development Strategies in Times of Disasters. Westview Press, Boulder, CO.
APA, 2009: Psychology and Global Climate Change: Addressing a Multi-faceted Phenomenon and Set of Challenges. American Psychological Association Task Force on the Interface between Psychology and Global Climate Change, American Psychological Association, Washington, DC.
Argyris, C. and D., Schön, 1978: Organizational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
Armitage, D., M., Marschke, and R., Plummer, 2008: Adaptive co-management and the paradox of learning. Global Environmental Change, 18, 86–98.
Aven, T., 2011. On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience. Risk Analysis, 31(4), 515–522.
Bahadur, A.V., M., Ibrahim, and T., Tanner, 2010: The resilience renaissance? Unpacking of Resilience for Tackling Climate Change and Disasters. Institute of Development Studies (for the Strengthening Climate Resilience (SCR) consortium), Brighton, UK.
Baird, A., P., O'Keefe, K., Westgate, and B., Wisner, 1975: Towards an Explanation of and Reduction of Disaster Proneness. Occasional Paper number 11, Disaster Research Unit, University of Bradford, Bradford, UK.
Balamir, M., 2005: Ways of understanding urban earthquake risks. In: Book of Abstracts from ‘Rethinking Inequalities,’ 7th Conference of the European Sociological Association, Institute of Sociology, Nicolaus Copernicus University of Torun, Poland, p. 132.
Ball, N., 1975: The myth of the natural disaster. The Ecologist, 5(10), 368–369.
Bankoff, G., 2001: Rendering the world safe: vulnerability as western discourse. Disasters, 25 (10), 19–35.
Bankoff, G., 2004: The historical geography of disaster: “vulnerability” and “local knowledge” in western discourse. In: Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development, and People [G., Bankoff, G., Frerks, and D., Hillhorst (eds.)]. Earthscan, London, pp. 25–36.
Barke, R, H., Jenkins-Smith, and P., Slovic, 1997: Risk perceptions of men and women scientists. Social Science Quarterly, 78, 167–176.
Barnett, J. and S., O'Neill, 2009: Maladaptation. Global Environmental Change, 20, 211–213.
Barron, E.J., 2009: Beyond climate science. Science, 326, 643.
Batterbury, S., 2008: Anthropology and global warming: the need for environmental engagement. Australian Journal of Anthropology, 1, 62–67.
Bedford, T.J. and R.M., Cooke, 2001: Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY and Cambridge, UK.
Bedsworth, L.W. and E., Hanak, 2010: Adaptation to climate change: A review of challenges and tradeoffs in six areas. Journal of the American Planning Association, 76(4), 477–495.
Beer, T. and R., Hamilton, 2002: Natural Disaster Reduction: Safer Sustainable Communities, Making Better Decisions about Risk. International Council for Science, ICSU Position Paper.
Below, R., A., Wirtz and D., Guha-Sapir, 2009: Disaster Category Classification and Peril Terminology for Operational Purposes. Common Accord Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and Munich Re, Brussels, Belgium and Munich, Germany.
Berkes, F., 2007: Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: Lessons from resilience thinking. Natural Hazards, 41, 283–295.
Berkes, F., J., Colding, and C., Folke (eds.), 2004: Navigating Social-Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Birkmann, J., and K., von Teichman, 2010: Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: key challenges – scales, knowledge, and norms. Sustainability Science, 5(2), 171–184.
Blaikie, P., T., Cannon, I., Davis, and B., Wisner, 1994: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters. 1st edition. Routledge, London.
Borger, G.J. and W.A., Ligtendag, 1998: The role of water in the development of the Netherlands – a historical perspective. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 4, 109–114.
Bosher, L.S. (ed.), 2008: Hazards and the Built Environment: Attaining Built-in Resilience. Taylor and Francis, London.
Bouwer, L.M. and Vellinga, P., 2007: On the flood risk in the Netherlands. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazard Research, 25, 469–484.
Brand, F.S., and K., Jax, 2007: Focusing the meaning(s) of resilience: resilience as a descriptive concept and a boundary object. Ecology and Society, 12(1), 23.
Brick, T., J., Kightlinger, and D., Mann, 2010: Integrated Water Resources Plan 2010 Update. Report No. 1373, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.
Brody, S., H., Grover, E., Lindquist and A., Vedlitz, 2010: Examining climate change mitigation and adaptation behaviours among public sector organisations in the USA. Local Environment: The International Journal of Justice and Sustainability, 15(6), 591–603.
Brown, C., 2010: The end of reliability. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. March/April, 143–145.
Brown, C., 2011: Decision-scaling for Robust Planning and Policy under Climate Uncertainty. World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC,
Brown, C. and U., Lall, 2006: Water and economic development: The role of variability and a framework for resilience. Natural Resources Forum, 30(4), 306–317.
Brown, O., A., Crawford, and A., Hammill, 2006: Natural Disaster and Resource Rights: Building Resilience, Rebuilding Lives. International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg, Canada.
Burby, R., 2006: Hurricane Katrina and the paradoxes of government disaster policy: Bringing about wise governmental decisions for hazardous areas. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604, 171–191.
Burby, R.J. and A.C., Nelson, 1991: Local government and public adaptation to sea-level rise. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 117(4), 140–163.
Burton, I., R., Kates, and G., White (eds.), 1978: The Environment as Hazard. Guildford, New York, NY.
Butts, R.A., R.A., Schaalje, and G., Bruce, 1997: Impact of subzero temperatures on survival, longevity, and natality of adult Russian wheat aphid (Homoptera: Aphididae). Environmental Entomology, 26(3), 661–667.
Callaway, J. and M., Hellmuth, 2007: Assessing the incremental benefits and costs of coping with development pressure and climate change: A South African case study. Submissions from admitted non-governmental organizations on socioeconomic information under the Nairobi work programme. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland.
Canham, C.D., M.J., Papaik, and E.F., Latty, 2001: Interspecific variation in susceptibility to windthrow as a function of tree size and storm severity for northern temperate tree species. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 31(1), 1–10.
Cannon, S.H, R.M., Kirkham, and M., Parise, 2001: Wildfire-related debris-flow initiation processes, Storm King Mountain, CO. Geomorphology, 39, 171–188.
Cannon, T., 2006: Vulnerability analysis, livelihoods and disasters. In: Risk21. Coping with Risks due to Natural Hazards in the 21st Century [Amman, W., S., Dannenmann, and L., Vulliet (eds.)]. Taylor and Francis Group, London, UK, pp. 41–50.
Cardona, O.D., 1986: Estudios de vulnerabilidad y evaluación del riesgo sísmico: Planificación física y urbana en áreas propensas. Boletín Técnico de la Asociación Colombiana de Ingeniería Sismica, 33(2), 32–65.
Cardona, O.D. 1996: Manejo ambiental y prevención de desastres: dos temas asociados. In: Ciudades en Riesgo [Fernandez, M.A. (ed.)]. La RED-USAID, Lima, Peru, pp. 79–101.
Cardona, O.D., 2001: Estimación Holística del Riesgo Sísmico utilizando Sistemas Dinámicos Complejos. Doctoral dissertation, Department of Terrain Engineering, Technical University of Catalonia, Spain,
Cardona, O.D., 2004: The Need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: A necessary review and criticism for effective risk management. In: Mapping Vulnerability: Disa sters, Development and People [Bankoff, G., G., Frerks, and D., Hilhorst (eds.)]. Earthscan Publishers, London, UK, pp. 37–51.
Cardona, O.D., 2005. Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management: Program for Latin America and the Caribbean – Summary Report. English and Spanish edition, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.
Cardona, O.D., 2008. Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management: Program for Latin America and the Caribbean – Summary Report – Second Edition. English and Spanish edition, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.
Cardona, O.D., 2011: Disaster risk and vulnerability: Notions and measurement of human and environmental insecurity. In: Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security – Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks [Brauch, H.G., U. Oswald, Spring, C., Mesjasz, J., Grin, P., Kameri-Mbote, B., Chourou, P., Dunay, and J., Birkmann (eds.)]. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, Vol. 5, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, Berlin and New York, pp. 107–121.
Carter, T.R., R.N., Jones, X., Lu, S., Bhadwal, C., Conde, L.O., Mearns, B.C., O'Neill, M.D.A., Rounsevell, and M.B., Zurek, 2007: New Assessment Methods and the Characterisation of Future Conditions. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 133–171.
Cash, D.W., W.C., Clark, F., Alcock, N.M., Dickson, N., Eckley, D.H., Guston, J., Jager, and R.B., Mitchell, 2003: Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100, 8086–8091.
Cash, D.W., J.C., Borck, and A.G., Patt, 2006: Countering the loading-dock approach to linking science and decision making: Comparative analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting systems. Science, Technology and Human Values, 31, 465–494.
Cavazos, T., C., Turrent, and D. P., Lettenmaier, 2008: Extreme precipitation trends associated with tropical cyclones in the core of the North American monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L21703, doi:10.1029/2008GL035832.
CCSP, 2008: Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources [Julius, S.H. and J.M., West (eds.)]. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 873 pp.
Chen, M. (ed.), 1991: Coping with Seasonality and Drought. Sage Publications, New Delhi, India.
Chongfu, H., 1996: Fuzzy risk assessment of urban natural hazards. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 83, 271–282.
Coburn, A. and R., Spence, 2002: Earthquake Protection. 2nd edition. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK.
Cochrane, H., 2004: Economic loss: Myth and measurement. Disaster Prevention and Management, 13, 290–296.
Collins, M., 2007: Ensembles and probabilities: A new era in the prediction of climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 365, 1957–1970.
Colls, A., N., Ash, and N., Ikkala, 2009: Ecosystem-based Adaptation: a natural response to climate change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 16 pp.
Comfort, L., 2006: Cities at risk: Hurricane Katrina and the drowning of New Orleans. Urban Affairs Review, 41(4), 501–516.
Corfee-Morlot, J., I., Cochran, S., Hallegatte, and P.-J., Teasdale, 2011: Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy. Climatic Change, 104(1) (Special Issue: Understanding Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation at City Scale), 169–197.
Corporación, OSSO, La Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina, 2010: DesInventar online 8.1.9-2: sistema de inventario de efectos de desastres. OSSO/La Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina, Cali, Columbia,
Cox, P. and D., Stephenson, 2007: A changing climate for prediction. Science, 317, 207–208.
CRED, 2010: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Data Base. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain, Belgium,
Cronin, M., C., Gonzalez, and J.D., Sterman, 2009: Why don't well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 108(1), 116–130.
Cuny, F.C., 1983: Disaster and Development. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
Cutter, S.L., 1996: Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Progress in Human Geography, 20, 529–239.
Cutter, S. L., L., Barners, M., Berry, C., Burton, E., Evans, E., Tate, and J., Webb, 2008: A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters, Global Environmental Change, 18, 598–606.
Davies, S., 1993: Are coping strategies a cop out?Institute of Development Studies Bulletin, 24(4), 60–72.
Davies, S., 1996: Adaptable Livelihoods: Coping with Food Insecurity in the Malian Sahel. Macmillan Press, London, UK.
de Bruin, K., R., Dellink, A., Ruijs, L., Bolwidt, A., van Buuren, J., Graveland, R., de Groot, P., Kuikman, S., Reinhard, R., Roetter, V., Tassone, A., Verhagen, and E., van Ierland, 2009: Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives. Climatic Change, 95(1), 23–45.
de Freitas, C.R., 1989: The hazard potential of drought for the population of the Sahel. In: Population and Disaster [Clarke, J.I., P., Curson, S.L., Kayastha, and P., Nag (eds.)]. Blackwell, Oxford, UK, pp. 98–113.
de Jong, C., D., Collins, and R., Ranzi (eds.), 2005: Climate and Hydrology in Mountain Areas. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY.
de Vries, J., 1985: Analysis of historical climate-society interaction. In: Climate Impact Assessment [Kates, R., J., Ausubel, and M., Berberian (eds.)]. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY.
Degg, M.R. and D.K., Chester, 2005: Seismic and volcanic hazards in Peru: changing attitudes to disaster mitigation. The Geographical Journal, 171, 125–145.
del Ninno, C., P.A., Dorosh, and N., Islam, 2002: Reducing vulnerability to natural disasters – Lessons from 1998 floods in Bangladesh. Ids Bulletin–Institute of Development Studies, 33, 98–107.
del Ninno, C., P.A., Dorosh, and L.C., Smith, 2003: Public policy, markets and household coping strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a food security crisis following the 1998 floods. World Development, 31, 1221–1238.
Dessai, S., and M., Hulme, 2004: Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities?Climate Policy, 4, 107–128.
Dessai, S., and M., Hulme, 2007: Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England. Global Environmental Change, 17(1), 59–72.
Dessai, S. and R., Wilby, 2011: How Can Developing Country Decision Makers Incorporate Uncertainty about Climate Risks into Existing Planning and Policymaking Processes?World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC,
Dessai, S., M., Hulme, R., Lempert, and R., Pielke Jr., 2009: Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? In: Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance [Adger, W.N., I., Lorenzoni, and K.L., O'Brien (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
DFID, 2004: Adaptation to Climate Change: Making Development Disaster Proof. Key Sheet 06, UK Department for International Development, London, UK.
DFID, 2005: Disaster Risk Reduction: A Development Concern. Policy Briefing Document, DFID-ODG, UK Department for International Development, London, UK.
Dhakal, A.S. and R.C., Sidle, 2004: Distributed simulations of landslides for different rainfall conditions, Hydrological Processes, 18(4), 757–776.
Doherty, S.J., et al., 2009: Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: Scientific developments needed to understand, predict, and respond to climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 497–513.
Douglas, M., 1992: Risk and Blame: Essays in Cultural Theory. Routledge, London, UK and New York, NY.
Douglas, M. and A., Wildavsky, 1982: Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
Dow, K., 1992: Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change. Geoforum, 23, 417–436.
Dulal, H.B., K.U., Shah, and N., Ahmad, 2009: Social equity considerations in the implementation of Caribbean climate change adaptation policies. Sustainability, 1, 363–383.
Dunlap, R.E. and A.M., McCright, 2008: A widening gap: republican and democratic views on climate change. Environment, 50, 26–35.
Eakin, H., and A. L., Luers, 2006. Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31, 365–394.
Easterling, D., G., Meehl, C., Parmesan, S., Changnon, T., Karl, and L., Mearns, 2000: Climate extremes, observations, modeling and impacts. Science, 289, 2068–2074.
El-Baroudy, I. and S.P., Simonovic, 2004: Fuzzy criteria for the evaluation of water resources systems performance. Water Resources Research, 40(10), W10503, doi:10.1029/2003WR002828.
Emanuel, K, 2001: Contribution of tropical cyclones to meridional heat transport by the oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D14), 14771–14781.
Emanuel, K., 2003: Tropical cyclones. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 31, 75–104.
Epstein, P., H., Diaz, S., Elias, G., Grabherr, N., Graham, W., Martens, E.M., Thompson, and J., Susskind, 1998: Biological and physical signs of climate change: focus on mosquito borne diseases. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 409–417.
ERN-AL, 2011: Probabilistic Modelling of Natural Risk at Global Level: The Hybrid Loss Exceedance Curve – Development of a Methodology and Implementation of Case Studies, Phase 1A: Colombia, Mexico, Nepal. Report for the GAR 2011, Consortium Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales – América Latina, Bogotá, Colombia.
Fink, A.H., U., Ulbrich, and H., Engel, 1996: Aspects of the January 1995 flood in Germany. Weather, 51(2), 34–39.
Fischhoff, B., 1994: What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387–403.
Fischhoff, B., P., Slovic, and S., Lichtenstein, 1983: The “public” vs. the “experts”: Perceived vs. actual disagreement about the risks of nuclear power. In: Analysis of Actual vs. Perceived Risks [Covello, V., G., Flamm, J., Rodericks, and R., Tardiff (eds.)]. Plenum, New York, NY, pp. 235–249.
Flood, R. and N., Romm, 1996: Diversity Management: Triple Loop Learning. Wiley, Chichester, UK.
Folke, C., 2006: Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16, 253–267.
Folke, C., F.S., Chapin III, and P., Olsson, 2009: Transformations in ecosystem stewardship. In: Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship: Resilience-Based Natural Resource Management in a Changing World [Chapin, F.S. III, G.P., Kofinas, and C., Folke (eds.)]. Springer, New York, NY, pp. 103–125.
Fouillet, A., G., Rey, V., Wagner, K., Laaidi, P., Empereur-Bissonnet, A., Le Tertre, P., Frayssinet, P., Bessemoulin, F., Laurent, P., De Crouy-Chanel, E., Jougla, and D., Hemon, 2008: Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003?A study of the 2006 heat wave. International Journal of Epidemiology, 37(2), 309–317.
Füssel, H., 2007: Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 17(2), 155–167.
Gaillard, J.C., 2007: Resilience of traditional societies in facing natural hazard. Disaster Prevention and Management, 16, 522–544.
Gaillard, J.C., 2010: Vulnerability, capacity, and resilience: Perspectives for climate and development policy. Journal of International Development. 22, 218–232.
Gallopín, G.C., 2003: Box 1. A systemic synthesis of the relations between vulnerability, hazard, exposure and impact, aimed at policy identification. In: Handbook for Estimating the Socio-Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters. Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean, LC/MEX/G.S., Mexico, pp. 2–5.
Gallopín, G.C., 2006: Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 16, 293–303.
Gasper, D., 2010: The idea of human security. In: Climate Change, Ethics and Human Security [O'Brien, K.A.L. St., Clair, and B., Kristoffersen (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 23–46.
Gershunov, A., D. R., Cayan, and S. F., Iacobellis, 2009: The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend. Journal of Climate, 22, 6181–6203.
Goddard, L., W., Baethgen, B., Kirtman, and G., Meehl, 2009: The urgent need for improved climate models and predictions. EOS, 90(39), 343.
Gordon, J.E., 1978: Structures. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, UK.
Gottschalk, M.K.E., 1971: Stormvloeden en rivieroverstromingen in Nederland Deel I (Storm surges and river floods in the Netherlands, part I). Van Gorcum, Assen, The Netherlands.
Gottschalk, M.K.E., 1975: Stormvloeden en rivieroverstromingen in Nederland Deel II (Storm surges and river floods in the Netherlands, part II). Van Gorcum, Assen, The Netherlands.
Gottschalk, M.K.E., 1977: Stormvloeden en rivieroverstromingen in Nederland Deel III (Storm surges and river floods in the Netherlands, part III). Van Gorcum, Assen, The Netherlands.
Groves, D.G. and R.J., Lempert, 2007: A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 17, 73–85.
Hagman, G., 1984: Prevention Better than Cure. Swedish Red Cross, Stockholm, Sweden.
Hallegatte, S., 2009: Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 240–247.
Hargrove, R., 2002. Masterful Coaching. Revised Edition. Jossey-Bass/Pfeiffer, Wiley, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Hawkins, E. and R., Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1095–1107.
Hegerl, G.C., F.W., Zwiers, P., Braconnot, N.P., Gillett, Y., Luo, J.A. Marengo, Orsini, N., Nicholls, J.E., Penner, and P.A., Stott, 2007: Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D., Qin, M., Manning, Z., Chen, M., Marquis, K.B., Averyt, M., Tignor, and H.L., Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, pp. 663–745.
Heltberg, R., P.B., Siegel, and S.L., Jorgensen, 2009: Addressing human vulnerability to climate change: Toward a “no-regrets” approach. Global Environmental Change, 19(1), 89–99.
Hertwig, R., G., Barron, E.U., Weber, and I., Erev, 2004: Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events. Psychological Science, 15, 534–539.
Hewitt, K., 1983: The idea of calamity in a technocratic age. In: Interpretations of Calamity from the Viewpoint of Human Ecology [Hewitt, K. (ed.)]. Allen and Unwin, Boston, MA and London, UK, pp 3–32.
Hewitt, K., 1997: Regions of Risk: A Geographical Introduction to Disasters. Longman, Harlow, Essex, UK.
Hewitt, K., 2007: Preventable disasters: addressing social vulnerability, institutional risks and civil ethics. Geographisches Bundscahu. International Edition, 3(1), 43–52.
Hewitt, K. and I., Burton, 1971: The Hazardousness of a Place: A Regional Ecology of Damaging Events. University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Hine, D. and J.W., Hall, 2010: Information gap analysis of flood model uncertainties and regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 46(19), W01514, doi:10.1029/2008WR007620.
Hoeksma, R.J., 2006: Designed for Dry feet: Food Protection and Land Reclamation in the Netherlands. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reson, VA.
Hohenemser, C., R.E., Kasperson, and R.W., Kates, 1984: Causal structure. In: Perilous Progress: Managing the Hazards of Technology [Kates, R.W., C., Hohenemser and J.X., Kasperson (eds.)]. Westview Press, Boulder, CO, pp. 25–42.
Holland, M.M., C.M., Bitz, and B., Tremblay, 2006: Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L23503, doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.
Holling, C.S., 1973: Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1–23.
Horsburgh, K.J. and M., Horritt, 2006: The Bristol Channel Floods of 1607 – reconstruction and analysis. Weather, 61(10), 272–277.
Huang, C., P., Vaneckova, X., Wang, G., FitzGerald, Y., Guo, and S., Tong, 2011: Constraints and barriers to public health adaptation to climate change. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 40(2), 183–190.
HVRI, 2010: The Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States. Version 8.0 (online database). Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC,
ICSU, 2002: Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations. Series on Science for Sustainable Development: Resilience and Sustainable Development No. 3, International Council for Science, Paris, France, 37 pp.
ICSU, 2008: A Science Plan for Integrated Research on Disaster Risk: addressing the challenge of natural and human induced environmental hazards. International Council for Science, Paris, France.
ICSU-LAC, 2009: Understanding and Managing Risk Associated with Natural Hazards: An Integrated Scientific Approach in Latin America and the Caribbean. International Council for Science Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Mexico City, Mexico.
IDB, 2007: Disaster Risk Management Policy. GN-2354-5, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.
IFRC, 2007. How to Do a VCA: A Practical Step-by-Step Guide for Red Cross Red Crescent Staff and Volunteers. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
IIED, 2009: Natural Resilience: Healthy ecosystems as climate shock insurance. IIED Policy Brief, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, UK.
Ingram, K.T., M.C., Roncoli, and P.H., Kirshen, 2002: Opportunities and constraints for farmers of West Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agricultural Systems, 74(3), 331–349.
International Building Codes, 2003: International Code Council (paperback), 656 pp. ISBN 1892395568.
IPCC, 2007a: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team R.K., Pachauri, and A., Reisinger (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp.
IPCC, 2007b: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
IPCC, 2007c: Appendix I: Glossary. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, pp. 869–883.
IPCC, 2009. Scoping Meeting for an IPCC Special Report on Extreme Events and Disasters: Managing the Risks. Proceedings [Barros, V., et al. (eds.)]. 23-26 March 2009, Oslo, Norway.
ISO, 2009: Guide 73: 2009. Risk Management – Vocabulary. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Jansen, V., N., Stollenwerk, H.J., Jensen, M.E., Ramsay, W.J., Edmunds, and C.J., Rhodes, 2003: Measles outbreaks in a population with declining vaccine uptake. Science, 301, 804.
Jasanoff, S., 2004: States of Knowledge: The Co-Production of Science and Social Order. Routledge, London, UK.
Jentsch, A., J., Kreyling, and C., Beierkuhnlein, 2007: A new generation of climate change experiments: events not trends. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 6(6), 315–324.
Jones, R.N. and B.L., Preston, 2011: Adaptation and Risk Management. WIREs Climate Change, 2, 296–308, doi:10.1002/wcc.97.
Kahan, D.M. and D., Braman, 2006: Cultural cognition and public policy. Yale Law and Policy Review, 24(1), 149–172.
Kahan, D.M., D., Braman, J., Gastil, P., Slovic, and C.K., Mertz, 2007: Culture and identity – protective cognition: Explaining the white male effect in risk perception. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 4(3), 465–505.
Kahneman, D. and A., Tversky, 1979: Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica, 47, 313–327.
Kahneman, D., P., Slovic, and A., Tversky (eds.), 1982: Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Karimi, I. and E., Hullermeier, 2007: Risk assessment system of natural hazards: A new approach based on fuzzy probability. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 158, 987–999.
Kasperson, R.E., O., Renn, P., Slovic, H.S., Brown, J., Emel, R., Goble, J.X., Kasperson, and S., Ratick, 1988: The social amplification of risk: A conceptual framework. Risk Analysis, 8, 177–187.
Kates, R.W., et al., 2001: Sustainability science. Science, 292(5517), 641–642.
Keen, M., V.A., Brown, and R., Dyball, 2005: Social Learning in Environmental Management: Towards a Sustainable Future. Earthscan, London, UK.
Kelman, I., 2008. Relocalising disaster risk reduction for urban resilience. Urban Design and Planning, 161(DP4), 197–204.
Khan, T.A., 2011: Floods increase wheat yield in KP. Inpaper Magazine, Pakistan, 16 May 2011.
Klein, R.J.T, R.J., Nicholls, and F., Thomalla, 2003: Resilience to natural hazards: how useful is this concept?Global Environmental Change, 5, 35–45.
Knutti, R., 2010: The end of model democracy?Climatic Change, 102, 395–404.
Kolb, D.A., 1984: Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Learning and Development. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Kolb, D.A. and R., Fry, 1975: Toward an applied theory of experiential learning. In: Theories of Group Process [Cooper, C. (ed.)]. John Wiley, London, UK, pp. 33–57.
Konikow, L.F. and E., Kendy, 2005: Groundwater depletion: a global problem. Hydrogeology Journal, 13, 317–320.
Kunreuther, H., 2006: Disaster mitigation and insurance: Learning from Katrina. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 604(1), 208–227.
Kysar, D., 2004: Climate change, cultural transformation, and comprehensive rationality. Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, 31(3), 555–590.
Lamond, J.E., D.G., Proverbs, and F.N., Hammond, 2009: Accessibility of flood risk insurance in the UK: confusion, competition and complacency. Journal of Risk Research, 12, 825–841.
Lau, W.K.M. and K.-M., Kim, 2011: The 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heat wave: Teleconnection of hydrometeorologic extremes. Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-016.1.
Lavell, A., 1996: Degradación ambiental, riesgo y desastre urbano. Problemas y conceptos: hacia la definición una agenda de investigación. In: Ciudades en Riesgo [Fernandez, M.A. (ed.)]. La RED-USAID, Lima, Peru, pp. 21–59.
Lavell, A., 1999: Environmental degradation, risks and urban disasters. Issues and concepts: Towards the definition of a research agenda. In: Cities at Risk: Environmental Degradation, Urban Risks and Disasters in Latin America [Fernandez, M.A. (ed.)]. La RED, US AID, Quito, Ecuador, pp. 19–58.
Lavell, A., 2002: Riesgo y Territorio: los niveles de intervención en la Gestión del Riesgo (Risk and Territory: Levels of Intervention and Risk Management). Anuario Social y Político de América Latina y el Caribe. FLACSO-Nueva Sociedad, Latin American School of Social Sciences.
Lavell, A., 2003: Local level risk management: Concept and practices. CEPREDENACUNDP. Quito, Ecuador.
Lavell, A., 2009: Technical Study in Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management in Development Planning and Policy. Study undertaken for the Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.
Lavell, A., 2010: Unpacking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management: Searching for the Links and the Differences: A Conceptual and Epistemological Critique and Proposal. IUCN-FLACSO, International Union for Conservation of Nature - Latin American School of Social Sciences.
Lavell, A. and E., Franco (eds.), 1996: Estado, Sociedad y Gestión de los Desastres en América Latina. Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina, La RED, Tercer Mundo Editores, Bogotá, Colombia.
Lavell, A. and C., Lavell, 2009: Local Disaster Risk Reduction Lessons from the Andes. Series: Significant Local Development Initiatives in the Face of Disaster Risk. General Secretariat of the Andean Community, Lima, Peru.
Leckebusch, G.C., D., Renggli, and U., Ulbrich, 2008: Development and application of an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, 575–587.
Lemos, M.C., 2003: A tale of two policies: the politics of seasonal climate forecast use in Ceará, Brazil. Policy Sciences, 32(2), 101–123.
Lemos, M.C., E., Boyd, E.L., Tompkins, H., Osbahr, and D., Liverman, 2007: Developing adaptation and adapting development. Ecology and Society, 12(2), 26,
Lempert, R.J. and M., Collins, 2007: Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: Comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Analysis, 27(4), 1009–1026.
Lempert, R.J. and D.G., Groves, 2010: Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water agencies in the American west. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 960–974.
Lempert, R.J. and M., Schlesinger, 2001: Climate-change strategy needs to be robust. Nature, 412, 375.
Lewcowicz, A.G. and C., Harris, 2005: Frequency and magnitude of active-layer detachment failures in discontinuous and continuous permafrost, northern Canada. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 16, 115–130.
Lewis, J., 1979: The vulnerable state: An alternative view. In: Disaster Assistance: Appraisal, Reform and New Approaches [Stephens, L. and S.J., Green (eds.)]. New York University Press, New York, NY, pp. 104–129.
Lewis, J., 1984: Environmental interpretations of natural disaster mitigation: The crucial need. The Environmentalist, 4(3), pp. 177–180.
Lewis, J., 1999: Development in Disaster-prone Places: Studies in Vulnerability. IT Publications (Practical Action), London, UK.
Lewis, J., 2009: An island characteristic: Derivative vulnerabilities to indigenous and exogenous hazards. Shima: The International Journal of Research into Island Cultures. 3(1), 3–15.
Lewis, J. and I., Kelman, 2009: Housing, flooding and risk-ecology: Thames Estuary South-Shoreland and North Kent. Journal of Architectural and Planning Research, 26(1), 14–29.
Lindell, M. and C., Prater, 2003: Assessing community impacts of natural disasters. Natural Hazards Review, 4(4), 176–185.
Lipton, M. and M., Ravallion, 1995: Poverty and policy. In: Handbook of Development Economics, Vol. 3B [Behrman, J.S. and T.N., Srinivasan (eds.)]. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, New York, and Oxford, pp. 2551–2657.
List, D., 2006: Action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives. Futures, 38, 673–684.
Loewenstein, G.F., E.U., Weber, C.K., Hsee, and E., Welch, 2001: Risk as feelings. Psychological Bulletin, 127, 267–286.
Malka, A. and J.A., Krosnick, 2009: The association of knowledge with concern about global warming: trusted information sources shape public thinking. Risk Analysis, 29, 633–647.
Manyena, S.B., 2006: The concept of resilience revisited. Disasters, 30(4), 433–450.
Maskrey, A., 1989: Disaster Mitigation: A Community Based Approach. Oxfam, Oxford, UK.
Maskrey, A., 2011: Revisiting community based risk management. Environmental Hazards, 10, 1–11.
Mastrandrea, M.D., C.B., Field, T.F., Stocker, O., Edenhofer, K.L., Ebi, D.J., Frame, H., Held, E., Kriegler, K.J., Mach, P.R., Matschoss, G.-K., Plattner, G.W., Yohe, and F.W., Zwiers, 2010: Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. IPCC, CGCs/Uncertainties-GN_IPCCbrochure_lo.pdf.
McBean, G., 2006: An integrated approach to air pollution, climate and weather hazards. Policy Options, October 2006, pp. 18–24.
McGray, H., A., Hammill, and R., Bradley, 2007: Weathering the Storm: Options for Framing Adaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.
McKee, T.B., N.J., Doesken, and J., Kleist, 1993: The duration of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January 1993, Anaheim, California,
McLaughlin, P. and T., Dietz, 2007: Structure, agency and environment: Toward an integrated perspective on vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 39(4), 99–111.
Means, E., M., Laugier, J., Daw, L., Kaatz, and M., Waage, 2010: Decision Support Planning Methods: Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties into Water Planning. Water Utility Climate Alliance, San Francisco, CA,
Meehl, G.A., T.F., Stocker, W.D., Collins, P., Friedlingstein, A.T., Gaye, J.M., Gregory, A., Kitoh, R., Knutti, J.M., Murphy, A., Noda, S.C.B., Raper, Watterson, I.G., A.J., Weaver and Z.-C., Zhao, 2007: Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D., Qin, M., Manning, Z., Chen, M., Marquis, K.B., Averyt, M., Tignor, and H.L., Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, pp. 747–843.
Mercer, J., 2010: Disaster risk reduction or climate change adaptation: are we reinventing the wheel?Journal of International Development, 22, 247–264.
Mezirow, J., 1995: Transformation theory in adult learning. In: In Defense of the Life World [Welton, M.R. (ed.)]. State University of New York Press, Albany, NY, pp. 39–70.
Mileti, D., 1999: Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC.
Miller, F., H., Osbahr, E., Boyd, F., Thomalla, S., Bharwani, G., Ziervogel, B., Walker, J., Birkmann, S., Van der Leeuw, J., Rockström, J., Hinkel, T., Downing, C., Folke, and D., Nelson, 2010: Resilience and vulnerability: complementary or conflicting concepts?Ecology and Society, 15(3), 11.
Milly, P.C.D., R.T., Wetherald, K.A., Dunne, and T.L., Delworth, 2002: Increasing risk of great floods in a change climate. Nature, 415, 514–517.
Milly, P.C.D., J., Betancourt, M., Falkenmark, R., Hirsch, Z., Kundzewicz, D., Lettenmaier, and R., Stouffer, 2008: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?Science, 319(5863), 573–574.
Minor, J.E., 1983: Construction tradition for housing determines disaster potential from severe tropical cyclones. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 14, 55–66.
Mitchell, T. and M., van Aalst, 2008: Convergence of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation. Technical Paper, October 2008, UK Department of International Development, London, UK.
Moench, M. and A., Dixit (eds.), 2004: Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience: Adaptive Capacities for Responding to Floods and Droughts in South Asia. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition, Boulder, CO and Nepal.
Morgan, M.G. and M., Henrion, 1990: Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Morgan, M.G., H., Dowlatabadi, M., Henrion, D., Keith, R.J., Lempert, S., McBride, M., Small, and T., Wilbanks, 2009: Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking. Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC.
Moser, S.C., 2009. Whether our levers are long enough and the fulcrum strong? Exploring the soft underbelly of adaptation decisions and actions. In: Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance [Adger, W.N., I., Loronzoni, and K., O'Brien (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 313–343.
Moser, S.C., 2010: Now more than ever: The need for more socially relevant research on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Applied Geography, 30(4), 464–474.
Moser, S.C. and J.A., Ekstrom, 2010: Barriers to climate change adaptation: A diagnostic framework. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(51), 22026–22031.
Moser, S.C. and J.A., Ekstrom, 2011: Taking ownership of climate change: Participatory adaptation planning in two local case studies from California. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 1(1), 63–74.
Moser, S.C. and A.L., Luers, 2008: Managing climate risks in California: The need to engage resource managers for successful adaptation to change. Climatic Change, 87, S309-S322.
Nelson, D.R., 2005: The Public and Private Sides of Persistent Vulnerability to Drought: An Applied Model for Public Planning in Ceará, Brazil. PhD Thesis, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ.
Nelson, D. R., N., Adger, and K., Brown, 2007: Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. The Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32, 395–419.
Nielsen, J.Ø. and A., Reenberg, 2010: Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation: A case study from Northern Burkina Faso. Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 142–152.
Noji, E., 1997: The Public Health Impacts of Disasters. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
Norris, F.H., S.P., Stevens, B., Pfefferbaum, K.F., Wyche, and R.L., Pfefferbaum, 2008: Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness. American Journal of Community Psychology, 41, 127–150
NRC, 2006: Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions. National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington DC.
NRC, 2009: Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 188 pp.
O'Brien, K. and R., Leichenko, 2000: Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization. Global Environmental Change, 10, 221–232.
O'Brien, K., S., Eriksen, L.P., Nygaard, and A., Schjolden, 2007: Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Climate Policy, 7(1), 73–88.
O'Keefe, P., K., Westgate, and B., Wisner, 1976: Taking the naturalness out of natural disasters. Nature, 260(5552), 566–577.
OED, 1989: The Oxford English Dictionary. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Olsson, P., L.H., Gunderson, S.R., Carpenter, P., Ryan, L., Lebel, C., Folke, and C.S., Holling, 2006: Shooting the rapids: navigating transitions to adaptive governance of social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society, 11(1), 18.
Oppenheimer, M., B.C., O'Neill, and M., Webster, 2008: Negative learning. Climatic Change, 89, 155–172.
Ostertag, R., W.L., Silver, and A.E., Lugo, 2005: Factors affecting mortality and resistance to damage following hurricanes in a rehabilitated subtropical moist forest. Biotropica, 37(1), 16–24.
Pahl-Wostl, C., 2009: A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes. Global Environmental Change, 19(3), 354.
Pall, P., T., Aina, D.A., Stone, P.A., Stott, T., Nozawa, A.G., Hilberts, D., Lohmann, and M.R., Allen, 2011: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature, 470, 382–386
Parson, E., V., Burkett, K., Fisher-Vanden, D., Keith, L., Means, H., Pitcher, C., Rosenzweig, and M., Webster, 2007: Global Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use. Sub-report 2.1B of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, DC, 106 pp.
Pelling, M., 2003: The Vulnerability of Cities: Social Resilience and Natural Disaster. Earthscan, London, UK.
Pelling, M., 2010: Adaptation to Climate Change: From Resilience to Transformation. Routledge, London, UK.
Pelling, M., A., Özerdem, and S., Barakat, 2002: The Macroeconomic impact of disasters. Progress in Development Studies, 2, 283–305.
Pelling, M., C., High, J., Dearing, and D., Smith, 2008: Shadow spaces for social learning: a relational understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change within organisations. Environment and PlanningA, 40(4), 867–884.
Pendalla, R., K.A., Foster, and M., Cowella, 2010: Resilience and regions: building understanding of the metaphor. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 3(1), 71–84
Peschl, M.F., 2007: Triple-loop learning as foundation for profound change, individual cultivation, and radical innovation. Construction processes beyond scientific and rational knowledge. Constructivist Foundations, 2(2–3), 136–145.
Peters, G., A.M., DiGioia Jr., C., Hendrickson, and J., Apt, 2006: Transmission Line Reliability: Climate Change and Extreme Weather. Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center Working Paper CEIC-05-06, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA.
Peters, O., C., Hertlein, and K., Christensen, 2001: A complexity view of rainfall. Physical Review Letters, 88, 018701, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.018701.
Pettengell, C., 2010: Climate Change Adaptation: Enabling People Living in Poverty to Adapt. Oxfam International Research Report, Oxfam International, Oxford, UK.
Piao, S., P., Ciais, Y., Huang, Z., Shen, S., Peng, J., Li, L., Zhou, H., Liu, Y., Ma, Y., Ding, P., Friedlingstein, C., Liu, K., Tan, Y., Yu, T., Zhang, and J., Fang, 2010: The impact of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature, 467, 43–51.
Pidgeon, N. and B., Fischhoff, 2011: The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks. Nature Climate Change, 1, 35–41.
Pielke, R.A. Jr., 2007: Future economic damage from tropical cyclones: sensitivities to societal and climate changes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 365(1860), 2717–2729.
Pohl, C., S., Rist, A., Zimmermann, P., Fry, G.S., Gurung, F., Schneider, C. Ifejika, Speranza, B., Kiteme, S., Boillat, E., Serrano, G. Hirsch, Hadorn, and U., Wiesmann, 2010: Researchers' roles in knowledge co-production: experience from sustainability research in Kenya, Switzerland, Bolivia and Nepal. Science and Public Policy, 37(4), 267–281.
Quarantelli, E.L, 1986: Disaster Crisis Management. Preliminary Papers 113, University of Delaware, Disaster Research Center. Newark, DE,
Ramírez, F. and O.D., y Cardona, 1996: Sistema nacional para la prevención y atención de desastres de Colombia, Estado, sociedad y gestión de los desastres en América Latina. In: Red de Estudios Sociales en Prevención de Desastres en América Latina [Lavell, A. and E., y Franco (eds.)]. Tercer Mundo Editores, Bogotá, Colombia.
Ranger, N. and S.-L., Garbett-Shiels, 2011: How can Decision-Makers in Developing Countries Incorporate Uncertainty about Future Climate Risks into Existing Planning and Policymaking Processes? Policy Paper, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in collaboration with the World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC,
Rayner, S., D., Lach, and H., Ingram, 2005: Weather forecasts are for wimps: Why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Climatic Change, 69, 197–227.
Reeder, T. and N., Ranger, 2011: How Do You Adapt In an Uncertain World? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 Project. World Resources Report, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC,
Rees, H.G. and D.N., Collins, 2006: Regional differences in response of flow in glacier-fed Himalayan rivers. Hydrological Processes, 20(10), 2157–2169.
Renn, O., 2008: Risk Governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World. Earthscan, London, UK.
Rich, P.M., D.D., Breshears, and A.B., White, 2008: Phenology of mixed woody-herbaceous ecosystems. Ecology, 89(2), 342–352.
Risbey, J., M., Kandlikar, H., Dowlatabadi, and D., Graetz, 1999: Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4(2), 137–165.
Rose, A., 2004: Economic principles, issues, and research priorities in hazard loss estimation. In: Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters [Okuyama, Y. and S., Chang (eds.)]. Springer, Berlin, Germany, pp. 14–36.
Sarewitz, D., R.A., Pielke Jr., and R., Byerly Jr., (eds.), 2000: Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature. Island Press, Washington, DC, 405 pp.
Savage, L.J., 1972: Foundations of Statistics. Dover Publications, New York, NY.
Schipper, L., 2009: Meeting at the crossroads? Exploring the linkages between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Climate and Development, 1, 16–30.
Schipper, L. and I., Burton (eds.), 2009: The Earthscan Reader on Adaptation to Climate Change. Earthscan, London, UK.
Schipper, L. and M., Pelling, 2006: Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration. Disasters, 30(1), 19–38.
Schneider, S.H., S., Semenov, A., Patwardhan, I., Burton, C.H.D., Magadza, M., Oppenheimer, A.B., Pittock, A., Rahman, J.B., Smith, A., Suarez, and F., Yamin, 2007: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F., Canziani, J.P., Palutikof, P.J., van der Linden, and C.E., Hanson, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 779–810.
Sen, A.K., 1983: Poverty and famines: an essay on entitlement and deprivation. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Seneviratne, S.I., D., Lüthi, M., Litschi, and C., Schär, 2006: Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205–209.
Shapiro, M., J., Shukla, G., Brunet, C., Nobre, M., Beland, R., Dole, K., Trenberth, R., Anthes, G., Asrar, L., Barrie, P., Bougeault, G., Brasseur, D., Burridge, A., Busalacchi, J., Caughey, D., Chen, J., Church, T., Enomoto, B., Hoskins, O., Hov, A., Laing, H., Le Treut, J., Marotzke, G., McBean, G., Meehl, M., Miller, B., Mills, J., Mitchell, M., Moncrieff, T., Nakazawa, H., Olafsson, T., Palmer, D., Parsons, D., Rogers, A., Simmons, A., Troccoli, Z., Toth, L., Uccellini, C., Velden, and J.M., Wallace, 2010: An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, 1377–1388.
Shukla, J., R., Hagedorn, B., Hoskins, J., Kinter, J., Marotzke, M., Miller, T.N., Palmer, and J., Slingo, 2009: Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 175–178.
Simonovic, S.P., 2010: Systems Approach to Management of Disasters: Methods and Applications. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, 348 pp.
Sjöberg, L., 1999a: Risk perception by the public and by experts: A dilemma in risk management. Human Ecology Review, 6(2).
Sjöberg, L., 1999b: Consequences of perceived risk: Demand for mitigation. Journal of Risk Research, (2), 129–149.
Slovic, P., 1993: Perceived risk, trust, and democracy. Risk Analysis, 13(6), 675–676.
Slovic, P. (ed.), 2000: The Perception of Risk. Earthscan, Sterling, VA.
Slovic, P. (ed.), 2010: The Feeling of Risk: New Perspectives on Risk Perception. Earthscan, London, UK.
Slovic, P., B., Fischhoff, and S., Lichtenstein, 1982. Facts versus fears: Understanding perceived risk. In: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases [Kahneman, D., P., Slovic, and A., Tversky (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Smit, B. and O., Pilifosova, 2003. From adaptation to adaptive capacity and vulnerability reduction. In: Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity and Development [Smith, J.B., R.J.T., Klein, and S., Huq (eds.)]. Imperial College Press, London, UK.
Smit, B. and J., Wandel, 2006: Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16, 282–292.
Smith, K., 1996: Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. Second Edition. Routledge, London, UK.
Sperling, F. and F., Szekely, 2005: Disaster Risk Management in a Changing Climate. Discussion Paper prepared for the World Conference on Disaster Reduction on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group, Washington, DC.
Stainforth, D.A., M.R., Allen, E.R., Tredger, and L.A., Smith, 2007: Confidence, uncertainty, and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 365, 2145–2161.
Sterman, J.D., 2000: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston, MA.
Sterman, J.D., 2006: Learning from evidence in a complex world. American Journal of Public Health, 96(3), 505–514.
Sterman, J.D., 2008: Risk communication on climate: mental models and mass balance. Science, 322(5901), 532–533.
Stott, P.A., D.A., Stone, and M.R., Allen, 2004: Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610–614.
Sui, J. and G., Koehler, 2001: Rain-on-snow induced flood events in Southern Germany. Journal of Hydrology, 252(1–4), 205–220.
Thomalla, F., T., Downing, E., Spanger-Siegfried, G., Han and J., Rockström, 2006: Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disasters, 30(1), 39–48.
Timmerman, P., 1981: Vulnerability, Resilience and Collapse in Society. Environmental Monograph No. 1, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Tobin, G.A. and B.E., Montz, 1997: Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration. The Guildford Press, London, UK.
Tompkins, E.L., M.C., Lemos, and E., Boyd, 2008: A less disastrous disaster: Managing response to climate-driven hazards in the Cayman Islands and NE Brazil. Global Environmental Change – Human and Policy Dimensions, 18, 736–745.
Torry, W., 1979: Intelligence, resilience and change in complex social systems: famine management in India. Mass Emergencies, 2, 71–85.
TRB, 2008: The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation. Special Report 290, Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC. (See Appendix C: Commissioned paper: Climate Variability and Change with Implications for U.S. Transportation, Dec. 2006).
Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D., 1974: Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.
Twigg, J., 2004: Disaster Risk Reduction: Mitigation and Preparedness in Development and Emergency Programming. Overseas Development Institute, London, UK.
Ulbrich, U., A.H., Fink, M., Klawa, and J.G., Pinto, 2001: Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999. Weather, 56, 70–80.
UNDP, 2004: Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development. A Global Report. United Nations Development Programme, New York, NY.
UNEP, 1972: Declaration of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
UNISDR, 2005: Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015. Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2008a: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction. Briefing Note 01, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2008b: Indigenous Knowledge for Disaster Risk Reduction - Good Practices and Lessons Learned from Experiences in the Asia-Pacific Region. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Bangkok, Thailand.
UNISDR, 2008c: Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Poverty Reduction, Good Practices and Lessons Learned. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UNDP, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2009a: Adaptation to Climate Change by Reducing Disaster Risk: Country Practices and Lessons. Briefing Note 02, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2009b: Reducing Disaster Risk through Science: Issues and Actions. Full Report of the Scientific and Technical Committee 2009, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR, 2009c: After Action Review: Second Session Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), 2009d: Terminology: Basic Terms of Disaster Risk Reduction. UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland,
UNISDR, 2009e: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate – Invest Today for a Safer Tomorrow. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, 207 pp.
UNISDR, 2011: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Revealing Risk, Redefining Development. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland.
Vale, L.J. and T.J., Campanella, 2005: The Resilient City: How Modern Cities Recover from Disaster. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
van Baars, S. and I.M., Van Kempen, 2009: The causes and mechanisms of historical dike failures in the Netherlands. E-Water Official Publication of the European Water Association, Hennef, Germany, 14 pp.,$FILE/Historical%20Dike%20Failures.pdf.
van Kerkhoff, L. and L., Lebel, 2006: Linking knowledge and action for sustainable development. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31, 445–477.
van Niekerk, D., 2007: Disaster risk reduction, disaster risk management and disaster management: Academic rhetoric or practical reality?Disaster Management South Africa, 4(1), 6.
Vandentorren, S., F., Suzan, S., Medina, M., Pascal, A., Maulpoix, J.C., Cohen, and M., Ledrans, 2004: Mortality in 13 French cities during the August 2003 heat wave. American Journal of Public Health, 94(9), 1518–1520.
Venton, P. and S., La Trobe, 2008: Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction. Technical Paper, Tearfund, Teddington, UK.
Walker, B.H., J.M., Anderies, A.P., Kinzig, and P., Ryan (eds), 2006: Exploring Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems: Comparative Studies and Theory Development. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Australia.
Walker, W.E., A.W., Vincent, J., Marchau, and D., Swanson, 2010: Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 917–923.
Walshaw, D., 2000: Modelling extreme wind speeds in regions prone to hurricanes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), 49, 51–62.
Watts, M., 1983: On the poverty of theory: natural hazards research in context. In: Interpretations of Calamity [Hewitt, K. (ed.)]. Allen and Unwin, Boston, MA, pp. 231–262.
Weber, E.U., 2006: Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: why global warming does not scare us (yet). Climatic Change, 77, 103–120.
Weber, E.U., 2010: What shapes perceptions of climate change?Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 332–342.
Weber, E.U. and P.C., Stern, 2011: Public understanding of climate change in the United States. American Psychologist, 66(4), 315–328.
Weber, E.U., S., Shafir, and A.R., Blais, 2004: Predicting risk-sensitivity in humans and lower animals: Risk as variance or coefficient of variation. Psychological Review, 111, 430–445.
Weichselgartner, J., 2001: Disaster mitigation: the concept of vulnerability revisited. Disaster Prevention and Management, 10(2), 85–94.
Werner, E.E., J.M., Bierman, and F.E., French, 1971: The Children of Kauai Honolulu. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, Hawaii.
Westerling, A.L. and T.W., Swetman, 2003: Interannual to decadal drought and wildfire in the Western United States. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 84(49), 545–555, doi:10.1029/2003EO490001.
Wheater, H.S., 2002: Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modeling. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyA, 360, 1409–1431.
Wijkman, A. and L., Timberlake, 1988: Natural Disasters: Acts of God or Acts of Man?New Society Publishers, Philadelphia, PA.
Wilby, R.L. and S., Dessai, 2010: Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather, 65(7), 180–185.
Wisner, B., P., O'Keefe, and K., Westgate, 1977: Global systems and local disasters: the untapped power of peoples' science. Disasters, 1(1), 47–57.
Wisner, B., P., Blaikie, T., Cannon, and I., Davis, 2004: At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability, and Disasters, 2nd edition. Routledge, London, UK.
Wisner, B., J.C., Gaillard, and I., Kellman (eds.), 2011: Handbook of Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction. Routledge, London, UK.
WMO, 2010: Understanding Climate. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland,
World Bank, 2001: World Development Report 2000-2001. World Bank, Washington, DC.
World Bank, 2009: World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. World Bank, Washington, DC.
WRI (World Resources Institute), United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme, and World Bank, 2008: World Resources 2008: Roots of Resilience: Growing the Wealth of the Poor. WRI, Washington, DC.
Xie, L., L.J., Pietrafesa, and M., Peng, 2004: Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three dimensional storm surge model. Journal of Coastal Research, 20, 1209–1233.
Yohe, G. and R.S.J., Tol, 2002: Indicators for social and economic coping capacity – moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 12(1), 25–40.
Young, P.C. 2002: Advances in real-time flood forecasting. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, A360, 1433–1450.
Zipser, E.J., D.J., Cecil, C., Liu, S.W., Nesbitt and D.P., Yorty, 2006: Where are the most intense thunderstorms on Earth?Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 1057–1071.