What were the principal factors leading to the 44% growth in the number of pensioners receiving retirement pensions between 1971 and 1998, and the fall in the proportion receiving means-tested supplementation? The main story is quite straightforward, although again further work would be required to place precise figures on the size of the effects (Figure 26.1).

Demographic change is the main driving factor accounting for the increased number of retirement pensioners. Despite falling birth rates and smaller birth cohorts in the early years of the century, the numbers reaching retirement age have actually increased over the last 26 years. Life expectancy after retirement has also risen, by about one fifth for men and one seventh for women, over the same period. It would appear from existing analysis that the increase in the Retirement Pension population was driven slightly more by the larger number retiring than by improved longevity after retirement. Net in-migration is likely to account for little more than 1% of the increase.

Although there has been a trend towards early retirement that warrants some discussion (see below), this has not affected the number of retirement pensioners, since Retirement Pension cannot be paid until after retirement age. There has been a drop in the number of people deferring retirement that may have increased the number of retirement pensioners by perhaps 2%.

The nine percentage point fall in the number of pensioners with supplementary means-tested pensions, together with the reduction in the proportion of pensioners receiving any form of mean-tested benefit, is a function of rising real personal incomes in old age. (The meanstested threshold has risen relative to prices since 1971, and although its real value has not altered greatly since the end of the 1970s, one would have expected a growth in the means-tested caseload if other factors had held constant.)