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  • Cited by 9
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press
Online publication date:
July 2017
Print publication year:
2017
Online ISBN:
9781316282229

Book description

Many historians of insurance have commented on the disconnect between the rise of English life insurance companies in the early eighteenth century and the mathematics behind the sound pricing of life insurance products that was developed at about the same time. Insurance and annuity promoters typically ignored this mathematical work. Bellhouse explores this issue, and shows that the early mathematical work was not motivated by insurance but instead by the fair valuation of life contingent contracts related to property. Even the work of the mathematician James Dodson in the creation of the Equitable Life Assurance Society, offering sound actuarially based premiums, did not change the industry in any significant way. The tipping point was a crisis in 1770 in which the philosopher and mathematician Richard Price, as well as other mathematicians, showed that a dozen or more recently formed annuity societies could not meet their financial obligations and were inviable.

Reviews

'This is a distinctive work of scholarship, visiting ground that has never been as thoroughly subjected to such deep and expert examination. Bellhouse is especially knowledgeable about early English probability and its milieu, and about actuarial science. There is no one comparable in this combination of skills, and he is a master of the relevant archives as well.'

Stephen Stigler - University of Chicago

'Bellhouse has surveyed a relatively neglected but important literature in the development of probability and statistics. The book is written with care and meticulous attention to detail, and the results are particularly interesting.'

Sandy Zabell - Northwestern University

'Bellhouse (statistics, Univ. of Western Ontario) has produced a one-of-a-kind history of actuarial science in 18th-century England … All collections serving actuarial, history of science, and English history scholarship should have this informative, fascinating book. Summing Up: Recommended.'

W. R. Lee Source: Choice

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Contents

Bibliography

Manuscript Sources

  • American Philosophical Society Library

    • G: F85 XLIX.36 Miscellaneous Papers

  • Berkshire Record Office

    • D/ESV/M/B11. Letters to Joseph Brooks from Joshua Lucock Wilkinson of Grays Inn, and others, on means of raising money for the Duke of Marlborough apparently for redemption of land tax on his estates

  • British Library Manuscripts

    • Add. MS 38729 British Library Add. MS 38729

  • Cambridge University Library

    • Macclesfield Collection

    • MS Add. 9597/8/4. The solution of a question relating to the chances of lives which may serve as a caution to be observed by such as form or are like to be concerned in projects for Insurance of Lives

    • MS Add. 9597/8/9 (Annuities upon Lives)

    • MS Add. 9597/8/10 (Simple Interest)

    • MS Add. 9597/8/11 (Of Annuities in Reversion)

    • MS Add. 9597/8/12 (“Simple Interest,” “Of Purchasing Freehold Estates by the Years Purchase,” and “Compound Interest”)

  • Canterbury Cathedral Archives

    • CCA-DCc-BB/29/30–36 (Notes)

    • BB/29/33: “On the calculation of fines for the renewal of leases and the valuation of leases for lives”

  • Centre for Kentish Studies

    • U1590/C21. Papers by several eminent mathematicians addressed to or collected by Lord Stanhope (contains three letters from De Moivre to Stanhope and several papers by Thomas Bayes)

  • Columbia University Library

    • David Eugene Smith Collection of Historical Papers Series I: Catalogued Correspondents Box 21 Thomas Simpson

  • Cornwall Record Office

    • T/1551. Case and opinion of William Morgan, actuary to the Equitable Society, concerning leasehold manor, probably Cargoll

  • Cumbria Archive Centre, Carlisle

    • DHUD 8/68/2. A Plan of a Society for Granting Annuities to the Widows of Gentlemen of the Law, by Josiah Brown, December 21, 1765

  • Exeter Cathedral Archives

    • 7076/105/3 and 155. Chapter Clerks Miscellanea

    • 7077/104/2. Terms of renewing Leases adopted by various Cathedrals, 1806

  • Gloucestershire Archives

    • D2700/RA2/1/13. Household steward’s (William Dale) accounts held at Badminton

  • Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Archive

    • BV pam 13c1

    • EL/6/1/2a. “Tables,” by James Dodson Sr

    • EL/6/1/3. “First Lecture on Insurances,” by James Dodson Sr

    • EL/6/1/5. Book of letters from Richard Price to John Edwards, actuary

    • EL/6/1/6a. “Observations on the proper method of keeping the accounts, and determining from year to year the state of the Society”, by Richard Price

    • EL/6/1/7. Tables of annual premiums and tables of survivorships, by William Morgan

    • EL/6/1/8a. “Calculations of premiums” based on the Northampton mortality tables, by William Morgan

    • EL/6/1/9. Calculations of premiums based on the Northampton mortality tables, by William Morgan

    • EL/6/1/10. “Table of premiums,” by William Morgan

    • EL/6/1/13. Tables showing the progress of the London Annuity Society in its first 24 years (1765–89)

    • RKN 43195. Richard Price letter February 28, 1778 accompanies copy of Petition for an Act to enable John Arthur Worsop to settle a Jointure upon any Woman or Women he may hereafter marry on the terms therein mentioned

  • London Metropolitan Archives

    • CLC/192/MS08740/001–006 (Assurance Books on Lives. 1733–1809)

    • MS 12806 Volume 11 (Christ’s Hospital Records)

    • MS 12819 Volume 18 (Christ’s Hospital Records)

  • Public Record Office (PRO)

    • C 12/1820/3: Nichols v. Gould dep

    • PROB 11/556/318: will of Daniel Cholmondeley

    • PROB 11/811/473: will of Abraham De Moivre

    • PROB 11/961/228: will of Gael Morris, Broker of London

    • PROB 11/913/443: will of Weyman Lee of Inner Temple, Middlesex

    • PROB 11/834/262: will of James Dodson

    • PROB 11/798/37: will of William Whiston

    • PROB 11/1285/184: will of William Dale

    • PROB 11/1091/206: will of Michael Fisher

    • PROB 18/34/86: Probate Lawsuit Cholmondeley v. Pope otherwise Cholmondeley and Beachcroft, concerning the deceased Daniel Cholmondeley of St Bride, London. Allegation and interrogatory

    • PROB 18/34/108: Probate Lawsuit Cholmondeley v. Pope otherwise Cholmondeley and Beachcroft, concerning the deceased Daniel Cholmondeley of St. Bride, London. Allegation and interrogatory

  • Royal Society Archives

    • Election Certificates

      • EC/1768/03 (James Horsfall)

      • EC/1790/05 William Morgan

    • Journal Books of Scientific Meetings: Volumes 8 and 16

    • L&P/1/23 (undated letter from Willem Kersseboom to John Eames)

  • Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin – Preußischer Kulturbesitz Handschriftenabteilung

    • Sig. Darmstaedter H 1695: Moivre, Abraham de

  • St. John’s College Library, Cambridge

    • TaylorB/C3 (Manuscript notes relating to annuities)

  • Universitätsbibliothek Oldenburg

    • Cim.1, 184 (Leçons sur Algêbre par Mons: Abr: de Moivre à Londres commence le 7me du Mai 1742 fine dans le mois d’Avril 1743)

  • University College London

    • Bentham Papers CLXVI/202

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