Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
  • Get access
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
  • Cited by 2
  • Print publication year: 2009
  • Online publication date: January 2010

3 - Non-renewable energy resources: fossil fuels – supply and future availability

Summary

Today, the world's energy supply still depends to around 90% on non-renewable energy sources, which are largely dominated by fossil fuels. As the global energy mix is widely expected to continue relying predominantly on fossil fuels in the coming decades, the question arises to what extent and how long fossil fuels will be able to sustain the supply. The projected increase in global energy demand, particularly in the developing nations of Asia (such as China and India), as well as the economic and geopolitical implications of future shortcomings in the supply of oil and gas, are already creating serious concerns about the security of energy supply. Especially, the transport sector, which is still almost entirely dependent on oil worldwide and would be most vulnerable to supply shortages, is increasingly triggering the search for alternative fuels. The following chapter thus focuses primarily on the future availability of fossil fuels in the context of the development of global energy demand and sets the scene for the possible introduction of hydrogen.

Projections on the future development of global energy demand

In the following, the past and future development of global energy demand and its composition will be briefly analysed. The energy balance methodology for primary energy demand of oil, gas, coal and biomass is normally based on the calorific content of the energy commodities.

Related content

Powered by UNSILO
References
,ACR (Alberta Chamber of Resources) (2004). Oil Sands Technology Roadmap. www.acr-alberta.com.
,AEUB (Alberta Energy and Utilities Board) (2007). Alberta's Energy Reserves 2006 and Supply/Demand Outlook 2007–2016. Statistical Series EUB ST98–2007: Calgary (Alberta): AEUB.
,ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) (2007). Newsletter No. 83 (November 2007). www.peakoil.net.
Babies, H. G. (2003). Ölsande in Kanada – eine Alternative zum konventionellen Erdöl?Commodity Top News, 20 (October 2003). Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) www.bgr.bund.de.
Bahorich, M. (2006). End of oil? No, it's a new day dawning. Oil & Gas Journal, 104 (31).
Bartis, T. B.Tourrette, T., Dixon, L., Peterson, D. J. and Cecchine, G. (2005). Oil Shale Development in the United States. Prospects and Policy Issues. RAND Corporation. www.rand.org.
Bartlett, A. (2000). An analysis of US and world oil production patterns using Hubbert-style curves. Mathematical Geology, 32 (1), 1–17.
,BGR (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe) (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources) (2003). Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 2002. Rohstoffwirtschaftliche Länderstudien, Heft XXVIII. Hanover.
,BGR (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe) (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources) (2007). Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005. www.bgr.bund.de.
,BP (British Petroleum) (2006). Statistical Review of World Energy 2006. www.bp.com.
,BP (British Petroleum) (2007). Statistical Review of World Energy 2007. www.bp.com.
Brendow, K. (2003). Global oil shale issues and perspectives. Oil Shale, 20 (1), 81–92.
Bunger, J. W., Crawford, P. M. and Johnson, H. R. (2004). Is oil shale America's answer to peak-oil challenge?Oil & Gas Journal, 102 (30).
Campbell, C. J. (2006). Regular Conventional Oil Production to 2100 and Resource Based Production Forecast. (August 2006). www.oilcrisis.com/campbell.
Campbell, C. J. and Laherrère, J. H. (1998). The end of cheap oil. Scientific American, (March 1998).
,CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) (2006). Why the ‘Peak Oil’ Theory Falls Down. Decision Brief, November 2006. Cambridge, MA: CERA.
,CfE (Canadian Centre for Energy Information) (2007). Centre for Energy. Calgary, Alberta. www.centreforenergy.com.
Chabrelie, M. F. (2002). Prospects for Growth of the Gas Industry – Trends and Challenges. The International Association for Natural Gas (Cedigaz). www.cedigaz.org.
,CRS (Congressional Research Service) (2006). Oil Shale: History, Incentives and Policy. CRS Report for Congress (April 13). US Department of State. http://fpc.state.gov/fpc/65955.htm.
Deffeyes, K. S. (2001). Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
,DOE (US Department of Energy) (2004). Strategic Significance of America's Oil Shale Resource. Volume I: Assessment of Strategic Issues. Volume II: Oil Shale Resources Technology and Economics. Washington, DC: Office of Petroleum Reserves, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves. www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/publications.
,DOE (US Department of Energy) (2007a). Secure Fuels from Domestic Resources. The Continuing Evolution of America's Oil Shale and Tar Sands Industries. Washington, DC: Office of Petroleum Reserves, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves. www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/publications.
,DOE (US Department of Energy) (2007b). America's Strategic Unconventional Fuels. Volume I – Preparation Strategy, Plan and Recommendations. Task Force on Strategic Unconventional Fuels. www.unconventionalfuels.org.
Elvidge, C. D. (2007). A Twelve Year Record of National and Global Gas Flaring Volumes Estimated Using Satellite Data. Final Report to the World Bank, Earth Observation Group. Boulder, Colorado: NOAA National Geophysical Data Centre. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dmsp/interest/DMSP_flares_20070530_b.pdf.
,EIA (Energy Information Administration) (2006). Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with projections until 2030. US Department of Energy. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive.html#aeo.
,EIA (Energy Information Administration) (2008). International Energy Outlook 2008. US Department of Energy. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo.
,EWG (Energy Watch Group) (2007). Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook. EWG Series 3 (2007). www.energywatchgroup.org.
Fischer, P. A. (2001). Natural gas: how operators will bring ‘worthless’ gas to market. World Oil, 222 (11).
Fischer, P. A. (2005). Hopes for shale oil are revived. World Oil, 226 (8).
,GAO (United States Government Accountability Office) (2004). Natural Gas Flaring and Venting. Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions. Report GAO-04–809. Washington, DC. www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-809.
Gerner, F., Svensson, B. and Djumena, S. (2004). Gas Flaring and Venting: A Regulatory Framework and Incentives for Gas Utilization. Public Policy Journal Note No. 279. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Gruson, J. F., Gachadouat, S., Maisonnier, G. and Saniere, A. (2005). Prospective Analysis of the Potential Non-conventional World Oil Supply: Tar Sands, Oil Shales and Non-conventional Liquid Fuels from Coal and Gas. Technical Report EUR 22168. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) and Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP).
Hirsch, R. L., Bezdek, R. H. and Wendling, R. M. (2005). Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management. US Department of Energy (DOE). National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL).
,IEA (International Energy Association) (2004). World Energy Outlook 2004. Paris: OECD/IEA.
,IEA (International Energy Association) (2005). Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. IEA Energy Technology Analysis Series. Paris: OECD/IEA.
,IEA (International Energy Association) (2006). World Energy Outlook 2006. Paris: OECD/IEA.
,IEA (International Energy Association) (2008a). World Energy Outlook 2008. Paris: OECD/IEA.
,IEA (International Energy Association) (2008b). Energy Technology Perspectives 2008. Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA.
Jaccard, M. (2005). Sustainable Fossil Fuels. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Kägi, W., Siegrist, S., Schäfli, M. and Eichenberger, U. (2003). Versorgung mit fossilen Treib- und Brennstoffen. Bern: Bundesamt für Energie (BFE).
Kuuskraa, V. A. (2007). A Decade of Progress in Unconventional Gas. White Paper, Unconventional Gas Series, July (2007). Advanced Resources International, Inc. www.adv-res.com.
Laherrère, J. H. (2000). The Hubbert Curve: Its Strengths and Weaknesses. http://dieoff.com/page191.htm.
Laherrère, J. H. (2001). Estimates of Oil Reserves. Paper presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW meeting at IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria), June 19, 2001. www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere.
Laherrère, J. H. (2004a). Future of Natural Gas Supply. Paper presented at the ASPO Third International Workshop on Oil and Gas Depletion, Berlin, May 25, 2004. www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere.
Laherrère, J. H. (2004b). www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/discovery/ProductionDiscovery.xls.
Laherrère, J. H. (2005). Review on Oil Shale Data. www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere.
Maugeri, L. (2004). Oil: Never cry wolf – why the petroleum age is far from over. Science, 304 (5674), 1114–1115.
,MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (2007). The Future of Coal. An Interdisciplinary MIT Study. Cambridge: MIT. http://web.mit.edu/coal.
Moritis, G. (2006). CO2 injection gains momentum. Oil & Gas Journal, 104 (15).
,NEB (National Energy Board of Canada) (2004). Canada's Oil Sands: Opportunities and Challenges to 2015. www.neb-one.gc.ca.
,NEB (National Energy Board of Canada) (2006). Canada's Oil Sands: Opportunities and Challenges to 2015; an Update. www.neb-one.gc.ca.
,Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) (2004). Hubbert Revisited. Different authors; series of six articles, Oil & Gas Journal, 102 (26) – 102 (31).
,Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) (2006a). Special report: oil production, reserves increase slightly in 2006. Oil & Gas Journal, 104 (47).
,Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) (2006b). Shell's interest in enhanced oil recovery grows. Oil & Gas Journal, 104 (43).
Porath, S. (1999). Erzeugung von Chemierohstoffen aus Kukersit durch Pyrolyse. Dissertation, University of Hamburg. www.sub.uni-hamburg.de/opus/volltexte/1999/23.
,Queensland Government, Department of Infrastructure and Planning (QLD) (2007). Projects: Stuart Oil Shale – Stage 2www.dip.qld.gov.au/projects/energy/oil/stuart-oil-shale-stage-2.htm
Robelius, F. (2007). Giant Oil Fields – The Highway to Oil. Dissertation. Uppsala: University of Uppsala.
Sandrea, I. and Sandrea, R. (2007a). Global offshore oil-1: exploration trends show continued promise in world's offshore basins. Oil & Gas Journal, 105 (9).
Sandrea, I. and Sandrea, R. (2007b). Global offshore oil-2: growth expected in global offshore crude oil supply. Oil & Gas Journal, 105 (10).
Saniere, A., Hénaut, I. and Argillier, J. F. (2004). Pipeline transportation of heavy oils, a strategic, economic and technological challenge. Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP). Oil & Gas Science and Technology, 59 (5), 455–466.
Schindler, J. and Zittel, W. (2000). Fossile Energiereserven (nur Erdöl und Erdgas) und mögliche Versorgungsengpässe aus Europäischer Perspektive. Ottobrunn: Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik (LBST). www.lbst.de.
Schindler, J. and Weindorf, W. (2003). ‘Well-to-Wheel’ – ökologische und ökonomische Bewertung von Fahrzeugkraftstoffen und -antrieben. Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik (LBST). www.HyWeb.de/Wissen/pdf/Nuernberg2003.pdf.
Shell, (2008). Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050. www.shell.com.
Snyder, R. E. (2004). Oil shale back in the picture. World Oil, 225 (8).
,SPE (Society of Petroleum Engineers) (2007). Petroleum Resources Management System. www.spe.org/spe-site/spe/industry/reserves/Petroleum_Resources_Management_System_2007.pdf.
,The Economist (2006). Special Report: National Oil Companies. The Economist, (April 12, 2006).
Udall, R. (2005). The Illusive Bonanza: Oil Shale in Colorado: Notes, References, Further Reading. Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) – USA. www.aspo-usa.com/proceedings/News.cfm.
,UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) (2007). United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy and Mineral Resources. www.unece.org/ie/se/reserves.html.
,UNPD (United Nations Population Division) (2006). World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision; Population Database, Online database. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. http://esa.un.org/unpp.
,USGS (United States Geological Survey) (2000). World Petroleum Assessment 2000. http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060.
,WEA (2000). Chapter 5 Energy resources. In World Energy Assessment. Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability, ed. Goldemberg, J., New York: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), World Energy Council (WEC).
,WEC (World Energy Council) (2007). Survey of Energy Resources 2007. www.worldenergy.org/publications.
,WETO (2003). World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook (WETO) 2030. Report EUR 20366. Brussels: European Commission, DG Research.
,WETO (2006). World Energy Technology Outlook 2050. WETO H2. Report EUR 22038. Brussels: European Commission, DG Research.
,Wikipedia Commons (2007). http://commons.wikinedia.org/wiki/Category:Oil_sands.
Williams, R. H. and Larson, E. D. (2003). A comparison of direct and indirect liquefaction technologies for making fluid fuels from coal. Energy for Sustainable Development, VII (4). Princeton: Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University.
Woynillowicz, D., Severson-Baker, C. and Raynolds, M. (2005). Oil Sands Fever – The Environmental Implications of Canada's Oil Sands Rush. The Pembina Institute: www.pembina.org/pubs.
,WWF (World Wildlife Fund) (2008). Unconventional Oil – Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel? WWF, UK. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/unconventional_oil_final_lowres.pdf.
Further reading
,BGR (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe) (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources) (2003). Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 2002. Rohstoffwirtschaftliche Länderstudien, Heft XXVIII. Hanover.
,BGR (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe) (Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources) (2007). Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005. www.bgr.bund.de.
,WEA (2004). World Energy Assessment – Overview: 2004 Update. New York: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), World Energy Council (WEC).
WEC (World Energy Council) (2007). Survey of Energy Resources 2007. www.worldenergy.org/publications.