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8 - Macro versus Micro Novelty

from PART II - NEWS ANALYTICS AS A WINDOW INTO STOCK MARKET INSTABILITY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 September 2021

Nicholas Mangee
Affiliation:
Georgia Southern University
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Summary

This chapter explores higher order relations between overarching narratives and subnarratives coursing through the stock market, that is, between macro unscheduled and micro unscheduled events. The macro KU events data from Dow Jones financial news is introduced. First, the absolute count of unscheduled macro events reported for the USA is dwarfed by their micro KU counterparts. Second, the macro KU indices share many of the same internal relationships as the corporate KU indices. Both KU macro and micro count data display similar signs of correlations between their associated ESS, relevance, and ENS scores suggesting that both narratives and subnarratives may have a common internal framework. Third, sentiment, relevance, novelty, and inertia indices for macro and micro events are interacted through principal components analysis to create KU micro and macro “narrative” series. The comovement of the two new variables over time is striking that suggests that macro narratives and micro subnarratives are positively related. The fourth key finding is that there is strong statistical evidence of “causality” only in the direction from macro KU events to corporate KU events.

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How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
Black Swans, Animal Spirits and Scapegoats
, pp. 202 - 222
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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  • Macro versus Micro Novelty
  • Nicholas Mangee, Georgia Southern University
  • Book: How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
  • Online publication: 23 September 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108974899.012
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  • Macro versus Micro Novelty
  • Nicholas Mangee, Georgia Southern University
  • Book: How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
  • Online publication: 23 September 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108974899.012
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Macro versus Micro Novelty
  • Nicholas Mangee, Georgia Southern University
  • Book: How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
  • Online publication: 23 September 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108974899.012
Available formats
×