Artificial intelligence (AI) has profound consequences for any human activity including those that involve the use of force and violence. This chapter looks at the strategic implications of AI for international security. To that purpose it first analyzes the economic implications of AI for jobs creation and destruction and their impact on social stability. It then looks at how AI empowers individuals to a level unseen before in international security. To illustrate this, the chapter considers how individuals can use AI to manipulate written, visual, audio content to create fake news and alternative realities. Finally, the chapter talks about the growing autonomy in weapons systems and the challenges this represents for international stability.

The Economic Strategic Implications of AI

Although there is no consensus among analysts on the impact of AI for the global economy, two assumptions seem to be shared: that productivity will increase and that AI will lead to profound transformations of employment with the destruction of traditional jobs and the creation of new ones. The balance of these transformations, however, is unknown and left to various speculations.

A study by Accenture estimates that AI technologies could boost labor productivity by up to 40 percent in 2035. A research by Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PWC) estimates that AI could add $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030, an increase of 14 percent from now. For McKinsey & Company, global GDP could be boosted by about 1.2 percent a year. For this strategic consulting company this implies that “AI is moving from the lab to the workplace, with profound implications for business and society.” Accenture finds that AI has the potential to double the annual economic growth rates of 12 developed economies. The rate of AI adoption and integration in the economy has, however, the potential to increase the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The gap between these countries in terms of net GDP impact could widen from “three percentage points in 2025 to 19 percentage points in 2030,” increasing further the development gap worldwide.

The potential that AI has in automating many of the tasks undertaken by humans across a range of sectors also has a silver lining. While providing businesses with increasingly larger profit margins, automation will have a serious impact on the labor market by provoking profound changes in the employment structure and likely lead to the rise of social inequality