Introduction

The eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) adopted by the United Nations in 2000 cover a wide range of economic, environmental and social development priorities. In order to facilitate performance and assessment, the MDGs include 21 Targets and 60 Indicators (Higgins, 2013, iv). On education, MDG 2 calls for the achievement of universal primary education (UPE) by 2015, with Target 2A stating that ‘children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling’. One of the most important indicators for MDG 2 is the Net Enrolment Ratio (NER), which measures the percentage of children aged 6–12 in primary school relative to the total population of that age (UNESCO, 2004, 90–1). Other indicators include the percentage of children who complete primary school after enrolling in Grade 1, and the literacy rate of men and women aged 15–24 (UNESCO, 2004, 90–1; Higgins, 2013, 1–2, 32).

Most commentators argue that it will be difficult if not impossible for Africa to meet the MDGs by 2015, including MDG 2. There is a case to be made, however, for a more positive view. For instance, in a recent North–South Institute paper, Higgins observes that Africa's progress towards the MDGs appears more promising if we consider the rate of progress (acceleration in achieving the MDGs over time) rather than the continent's achievements at a given time relative to other regions (Higgins, 2013, 5–6). This is particularly important in the case of the education MDG, which as Easterly observes, is unique because ‘it is a level end-goal rather than a changes goal (that is, changes in either relative or absolute terms)’ (Easterly, 2009, 29). Easterly continues: