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Introduction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 March 2016

R. Michael Alvarez
Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
R. Michael Alvarez
Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
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Summary

This volume has its origins in the rapid and staggering changes occurring in computational social research. As one of the editors of Political Analysis (an academic journal that publishes research articles in political methodology) and Analytical Methods for Social Research (a book series), I know I am witnessing amajor shift in social science research methodology. Researchers have vast (and complex) arrays of data to work with; we have incredible tools to sift through the data and recognize patterns in that data; there are now many sophisticated models that we can use to make sense of those patterns; and we have extremely powerful computational systems that help us accomplish these tasks quickly.

When I was in graduate school in the late 1980s and early 1990s, those of us who worked with survey and public opinion polling data were considered “big-N” researchers in the social sciences. When I teach introductory research methods in my graduate seminars at Caltech, I will often have students read the 1978 American Political Science Review paper by Steven J. Rosenstone and Raymond E. Wolfinger, “The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout.” Today this paper seems straightforward to students: Rosenstone and Wolfinger simply collected information on state-by-state voter registration and administrative practices, and merged that with the November 1972 U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population voting supplement, which the authors report as having more than 93,000 respondents.They then tested, using a relatively simple binary probit model, for the effects of various registration and election administration procedures on whether the survey respondent reported having voted in the 1972 federal general elections.

Most students of statistics, methodology, or econometrics today are familiar with the binary probit model and its near-cousin, binary logit. These are techniques that model the probability that an outcome is met (here, did a voter turn out in an election) based on the covariates or regressors on the right-hand side of the model. The parameters of the probit and logit model are typically fit via maximum-likelihood optimization. Today a student could use an off-the-shelf statistics software package and replicate the original Rosenstone-Wolfinger analysis, literally in the blink of an eye, on his or her laptop computer.

Type
Chapter
Information
Computational Social Science
Discovery and Prediction
, pp. 1 - 24
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2016

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  • Introduction
  • Edited by R. Michael Alvarez, California Institute of Technology
  • Book: Computational Social Science
  • Online publication: 05 March 2016
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316257340.002
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  • Introduction
  • Edited by R. Michael Alvarez, California Institute of Technology
  • Book: Computational Social Science
  • Online publication: 05 March 2016
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316257340.002
Available formats
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Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Introduction
  • Edited by R. Michael Alvarez, California Institute of Technology
  • Book: Computational Social Science
  • Online publication: 05 March 2016
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316257340.002
Available formats
×