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5 - Predicting Climate

Butterflies in the Greenhouse

from Part I - The Past

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 November 2021

R. Saravanan
Affiliation:
Texas A & M University
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Summary

The fundamental difference between weather prediction and climate prediction is explained, using a “nature versus nurture” analogy. To predict weather, we start from initial conditions of the atmosphere and run the weather forecast model. To predict climate, the initial conditions matter less, but we need boundary conditions, such as the angle of the sun or the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which control the greenhouse effect. Charles David Keeling began measuring carbon dioxide in the late 1950s, and found that its concentration was steadily increasing. Carbon dioxide concentrations for the past 800,000 years can also be measured using ice cores that contain trapped air. These ice core data show that the rise in carbon dioxide concentrations measured by Keeling was unprecedented. Manabe, and another scientist, Jim Hansen, used climate models to predict that increasing carbon dioxide could cause global warming.

Type
Chapter
Information
The Climate Demon
Past, Present, and Future of Climate Prediction
, pp. 77 - 86
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

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  • Predicting Climate
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.008
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To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Predicting Climate
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.008
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Predicting Climate
  • R. Saravanan, Texas A & M University
  • Book: The Climate Demon
  • Online publication: 02 November 2021
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009039604.008
Available formats
×