The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), signed at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, set as its objective the stabilisation of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would avoid ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate’ (Article 2). Although ‘dangerous’ is perhaps deliberately subjective terminology, a limit of no more than 2ºC above pre-industrial temperatures has been widely discussed and has been adopted as a target by the European Union, the Group of 20 (G20), and signatories to the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord. In order to have a reasonable chance of meeting this target, total global emissions need to peak and begin declining no later than about 2020 (Meinshausen, 2006). Despite the urgency of the climate change problem, the current international regime has been relatively ineffective. The Kyoto Protocol that came into force in 2004 imposed emissions limits on relatively few nations and set a goal of only 5% emissions reductions below 1990 levels in the 2008-2012 compliance period. In addition to the United States (US) not being a signatory, a number of the participating nations, including Canada, Japan and New Zealand, and are unlikely to meet even the limited commitments they have undertaken through the Kyoto Protocol (Barrett, 2008).

Efforts to reach agreement on global climate action following the Kyoto first commitment period are currently stalled, with the long-awaited Copenhagen negotiations at the end of 2009 producing only the aspirational and non-binding Copenhagen Accord (see Chapter One). A key element of the post-Kyoto climate negotiations has revolved around how to engage major industrialising countries in mitigation activities. Emissions from developing countries currently account for only about 25% of global radiative forcing, but this will grow to over 70% by 2100 if emissions controls are not implemented (Moore and MacCracken, 2009). Developing countries have nevertheless refused to accept caps on emissions, pointing to the substantially larger per capita emissions in the developed North as well as the historical association between use of fossil fuels and economic development (for example, Singh, 2008). On the other hand, developed nations have pointed to the rapid growth in emissions from industrialising countries as a reason why a future climate agreement should have full participation from all major emitters (for example, Connaughton, 2007).