Rock glaciers support alpine biodiversity and may respond more slowly to warming than snow or glaciers. While responses of snow and glaciers to climate change are relatively well understood, a robust assessment of rock glacier environmental niche, future distributions of rock glaciers and potential for development of rock glaciers from current glaciers is lacking. Using process-relevant, high-resolution environmental descriptors, we develop a species distribution model of the topographic, geologic and hydroclimatic niche of rock glaciers that provides novel estimates of potential rock glacier distributions for different climates. We identify mean annual air temperature and headwall area as the dominant controls on rock glacier spatial distributions, with rock glaciers more likely to be found in areas with mean annual temperatures close to −5°C, little rain, northern aspects and broad headwalls. While rock glacier climate equilibration may take hundreds of years, we find that equilibration to present climate will result in a 50% reduction in rock glacier habitat and equilibration to late 21st-century climate under a high-end warming scenario will result in a 99% reduction in rock glacier habitat across the western USA. Under future conditions, we find limited potential for glacier to rock glacier transformation (3% of glacierized area), concentrated in cold, high elevation, moderate precipitation areas.

Recent studies have reported a shift in the Arctic sea ice to a younger state after around 2007. This study reveals that this shift can be primarily attributed to a stepwise-type reduction in the extent of 4 years or older (4+ year) ice and its linked survivability. After this shift, the fraction of 4+ year ice extent relative to the total ice changed from 30.5 to 10.0%. Sea-ice survivability can serve as a key indicator of sea-ice persistence in response to other factors. We demonstrate that the decrease of 4+ year ice is controlled by the decrease of its linked survivability in a non-linear manner, signifying small alterations in the survivability can result in relatively large changes in the extent of 4+ year ice. The decrease in survivability is affected by both winter and summer processes. Summer melting contributed the most, while the contribution of the export through Fram Strait was minor. However, the significant rise in residual loss during the growth season suggests that other winter processes may also have played an important role.

Basal channels, which are troughs carved into the undersides of ice shelves by buoyant plumes of water, are modulators of ice-shelf basal melt and structural stability. In this study, we track the evolution of 12 large basal channels beneath ice shelves of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas region in West Antarctica using the Landsat record since its start in the 1970s through 2020. We observe examples of channel growth, interactions with ice-shelf features, and systematic changes in sinuosity that give insight into the life cycles of basal channels. We use the last two decades of the record, combined with contemporary ice-flow velocity datasets, to separate channel-path evolution into components related to advection by ice flow and those controlled by other forcings, such as ocean melt or surface accumulation. Our results show that ice-flow-independent lateral channel migration is overwhelmingly to the left when viewed down-flow, suggesting that it is dominated by Coriolis-influenced ocean melt. By applying a model of channel-path evolution dominantly controlled by ice flow and ocean melt, we show that the majority of channels surveyed exhibit non-steady behavior that serves as a novel proxy for increased ocean forcing in West Antarctica starting at least in the early 1970s.

Perennial ice can be studied for many purposes, including paleoclimate records or rheological properties. For most of those purposes, the ice microstructure must be studied, often through optical microscopy. The aim of this work is to assess the viability of immersion microscopy for the study of ice microstructures. It consists of using an oil between the objective lens and the specimen, to increase image resolution. Immersion microscopy is a technique well-developed for the investigation of diverse materials, but it has so far not been explored for ice research. Here we investigate the challenges and advantages of that technique. The main challenge is related to the selection of the immersion oil itself, which must satisfy a number of criteria, ranging from refractive index and viscosity to toxicity and reactivity. We identify pure silicone oil (dimethicone) as a simple and safe option for immersion microscopy of inner ice structures. Among its advantages, it provides higher resolution (compared to standard ‘dry’ microscopy) and it can be simultaneously used as a long-term coating to prevent undesired sublimation of the ice-sample surfaces. For the observation of surface structures, however, another type of oil with higher refractive index should be used.

The southern Patagonian glaciers are known for having extremely high ablation rates. Foehn winds are one of the suspected causes, however, their influence on the annual ablation, their interannual variations, and their relationship with climate change is not well understood. We analysed the in-situ meteorological data from 2003–2020 recorded at Glaciar Perito Moreno. Daily temperature lapse rates varied substantially, from −7.8°C km−1 to 10.4°C km−1, due to foehn, fog, and katabatic winds. We find that, on average, foehn events occurred 1073 hours per year, and accounted for 20% of the annual surface ablation. This increase in surface ablation rates during foehn events occurs as a result of the enhanced sensible heat flux and net shortwave radiation. The downglacier-directed foehn winds warm the air mass over the glacier, but because of the high humidity of the foehn here, they often release latent heat by condensation. Variations in the Amundsen Sea Low influence foehn occurrence by modulating the westerly winds, which is related to the hemispherical ocean and atmospheric variability. Our results show that the local climate play an important role in the surface melting of Patagonian glaciers.

Recent satellite measurements of glacier mass balance show mountain glaciers all over the world had generally negative mass balances in the first decades of the 21st century. We analyse archived data for surface mass balance and summer temperature for 37 Northern Hemisphere glaciers with data for 1961–2020. We compare mean annual balances for 1961–90 and 1991–2020, and for 25 glaciers explain the changes in annual balance by changes in winter and summer balances. Mean balances 1961–90 were already substantially negative for 19 out of the 25 glaciers. Changes in winter balances from 1961–90 to 1991–2020 average close to zero but changes in summer balance are strongly negative. Mean balance 1991–2020 is strongly correlated with change in summer balance, weakly correlated with winter balance change, and strongly correlated with mean balance 1961–90. We estimate 1991–2020 summer temperature anomalies for the 37 glaciers and confirm that summer temperature anomalies for 1991–2020 were higher for the Alps, by nearly 1.5°C, than for other areas. Substantial variations in the temperature – sensitivity of summer balances for individual glaciers of −0.2 to −1.0 m w.e. a−1 °C−1 deserve further study.

As warming intensifies across the Greenland ice sheet, an increasing number of shallow coring and radar studies are targeting the melt-impacted firn column to investigate meltwater processes. Highly inhomogeneous infiltration and refreezing, however, redistributes mass, distorting age–depth relationships and confounding comparisons between different cores. Here, we utilize a dynamic time warping algorithm for time series alignment to investigate and quantify the heterogeneous impact of melt processes on nine closely spaced (within 50 m) firn core-density profiles. The 10 m cores were collected relatively high in Greenland's percolation zone, where melt alteration is minimal compared to lower elevation. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of dynamic time warping as a tool for assessing heterogeneity between ice core records. We find that the optimal alignment of density profiles in the nine cores requires vertical stretching and compression of individual profiles, ranging from, on average, <1 to ~16% of the core lengths. We identified four depth zones of mass redistribution that appear to coincide with observed ice layers. Further, ~75% of density measurements from each core do not align with an age model-derived density profile that assumes no mass redistribution of meltwater, indicating the pervasive impact of melt processes.

The seasonal ice-free period in the Hudson Bay Complex (HBC) has grown longer in recent decades in response to warming, both from progressively earlier sea-ice retreat in summer and later sea-ice advance in fall. Such changes disrupt the HBC ecosystem and ice-based human activities. In this study, we compare 102 simulations from 37 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to the satellite passive microwave record and atmospheric reanalyses. We show that, throughout the HBC, models simulate an ice-free period that averages 30 d longer than in satellite observations. This occurs because seasonal sea-ice advance is unrealistically late and seasonal sea-ice retreat is unrealistically early. We find that much of the ice-season bias can be linked to a warm bias in the atmosphere that is associated with a southerly wind bias, especially in summer. Many models also exhibit an easterly wind bias during winter and spring, which reduces sea-ice convergence on the east side of Hudson Bay and impacts the spatial patterns of summer sea-ice retreat. These results suggest that, for many models, more realistic simulation of atmospheric circulation would improve their simulation of HBC sea ice.

As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~ 1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~ 3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~ 0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of post-2100 climate trends on Antarctic mass changes in the 22nd and 23rd centuries.

Cryospheric change occurs in unequal spaces. Societies living near ice are divided by race, class, gender, geography, politics and other factors. Consequently, impacts of ice loss are not shared equally, and everyone experiences cryospheric changes differently. Responsibility for recent ice loss is also driven by a relatively small portion of humanity: those who emit the most greenhouse gases. Additionally, people who study the cryosphere come from institutions and societies where inequality is often systemic, making research on ice and snow a symptom of and contributor to social inequality. To better understand unequal effects of cryospheric change within and across diverse communities, including research communities, this paper focuses on three areas, drawing primarily from glacier-related work: (1) the social context of cryospheric changes; (2) attribution and responsibility for cryospheric changes and (3) imbalances in knowledge about the cryosphere. Addressing these dimensions of ice loss requires transdisciplinary approaches that connect research to societies and link glaciology and other cryospheric sciences with social sciences and humanities. These concepts, cases and suggestions to help address inequalities also reveal that no singular conceptualization of sustainability exists. Different societies, residents and researchers possess distinct understandings of and goals for ‘ice in a sustainable society’.

During the second half of the 20th century, the Antarctic Peninsula region has undergone a long and sustained warming period, followed by a shorter but also sustained cooling period, and then a very recent return to warming conditions. All of these have profoundly impacted the glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Peninsula. This paper focuses on the analysis of the surface mass balance monitoring of such glaciers by the glaciological method, complemented by the analysis of mass-balance estimates by geodetic methods, as well as frontal ablation estimates. We aim to summarize the current knowledge and outline the main challenges faced by investigating the mass balance of such peripheral glaciers and their current contribution to sea-level rise.

Increases in ocean temperatures in the Filchner Ronne region of Antarctica are likely to result in increased ice mass loss and sea level rise. We constrain projections of the 21st century sea level contribution of this region using process-based ice-sheet modeling, with model parameters controlling ice dynamics calibrated using observed surface speeds and Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. We use climate forcing from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios as well as a set of hypothetical scenarios of deep ocean warming to evaluate the sensitivity of this region to ocean temperatures. Projected changes in regional ice mass correspond to a decrease in global mean sea level of 24±7 mm over 2015–2100 under RCP 2.6 and 28±9 mm under RCP 8.5. Increased regional inland surface accumulation related to higher warming levels in RCP 8.5 leads to more ice above flotation, offsetting increased ice shelf basal melt. The tests involving step changes in ocean temperatures with constant surface forcing show that one degree of ocean warming from present results in an additional +11 mm contribution to sea level by 2100 and 1% of the ice-covered area in the domain becomes ungrounded (23 200 km2). The rate of mass loss with temperature increases at higher temperatures.

In recent decades, surface melting on the inland Greenland ice sheet has increased, leading to significant meltwater-refreezing in the snow and firn. Increased knowledge of the physical and chemical characteristics of these melt features (i.e., ice layers) is needed to help estimate future global sea-level rise. Here, using a combination of microscopy and spectroscopy, we investigate the size, shape, location, and chemical compositions of inclusions in 12 ice layers of the SIGMA-A ice core in the northwestern Greenland ice sheet (78°03′06″N, 67°37′42″W, 1490 m a.s.l.). In the ice layers, we found inclusions exceeding 30 μm diameter that could only be formed by melting–refreezing, which we classify into columnar-, particle-, and rod-like inclusions. We propose that the smaller columnar- and particle-like inclusions of solid Na2SO4⋅10H2O and CaSO4⋅2H2O form first, within the ice grains, followed by the larger rod-like inclusions of brines with mainly Na+ and Cl− in grain boundaries. Our results suggest a new proxy that may help identify past warm climates in deeper ice cores in Greenland and for studying future ice sheet melting behavior.

Global glacier mass balance decreased rapidly over the last two decades, exceeding mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In Greenland, peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) cover only ~5% of Greenland's area but contributed ~20% of the island's ice mass loss between 2000 and 2018. Although Greenland GIC mass loss due to surface meltwater runoff has been estimated using atmospheric models, mass lost to changes in ice discharge into oceans (i.e., dynamic mass loss) remains unquantified. We use the flux gate method to estimate discharge from Greenland's 585 marine-terminating peripheral glaciers between 1985 and 2018, and compute dynamic mass loss as the discharge anomaly relative to the 1985–98 period. Greenland GICs discharged between 2.94 ± 0.23 and 4.03 ± 0.23 Gt a−1 from 1985 to 1998, depending on the gap-filling method, and abruptly increased to 5.10 ± 0.21 Gt a−1 from 1999 to 2018. The resultant ~1–2 Gt a−1 dynamic mass loss was driven by synchronous widespread acceleration around Greenland. The mass loss came predominantly from the southeast region, which contains 39% of the glaciers. Although changes in discharge over time were small relative to surface mass-balance changes, our speed and discharge time series suggest these glaciers may quickly accelerate in response to changes in climate.

This study involves examination of glaciological mass-balance time series, glacier and climatic descriptors, the application of machine learning methods for glaciological clustering, and computation of mass-balance time series based upon the clustering and statistical analyses relative to gridded air temperature datasets. Our analysis revealed an increasingly coherent mass-balance trend but a latitudinal bias of monitoring programs. The glacier classification scheme delivered three clusters, suggesting these correspond to climate-based first-order regimes, as glacier morphometric characteristics weighed little in our multivariate analysis. We combined all available surface mass-balance data from in situ monitoring programs to study temperature sensitivity for each cluster. These aggregated mass-balance time series delivered spatially different statistical relationships to temperature. Results also showed that surface mass balance tends to have a temporal self-correlation of ~20 years. Using this temporal window to analyze sensitivity since ~ 1950, we found that in all cases temperature sensitivity, while generally negative, tended to fluctuate through time, with the largest absolute magnitudes occurring in the 1980s and becoming less negative in recent years, revealing that glacier sensitivity is non-stationary. These findings point to a scenario of a coherent signal of change no matter the glacier regime. This work provides new insights into glacier–climate relationships that can guide observational and analytical strategies.

We conduct extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 with the model SICOPOLIS. Beyond 2100, the climate forcing is kept fixed at late-21st-century conditions. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, which amounts to ~ 1.8 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~ 3.5 m SLE (~ 50% of the entire mass) for the most sensitive experiment. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass loss is limited to a two-experiment mean of ~ 0.28 m SLE. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise in the long term.

Mountain glaciers have response times that govern retreat due to anthropogenic climate change. We use geometric attributes to estimate individual response times for 383 glaciers in the Cascade mountain range of Washington State, USA. Approximately 90% of estimated response times are between 10 and 60 years, with many large glaciers on the short end of this distribution. A simple model of glacier dynamics shows that this range of response times entails consequential differences in recent and ongoing glacier changes: glaciers with decadal response times have nearly kept pace with anthropogenic warming, but those with multi-decadal response times are far from equilibrium, and their additional committed retreat stands well beyond natural variability. These differences have implications for changes in glacier runoff. A simple calculation highlights that transient peaks in area-integrated melt, either at the onset of forcing or due to variations in forcing, depend on the glacier's response time and degree of disequilibrium. We conclude that differences in individual response times should be considered when assessing the state of a population of glaciers and modeling their future response. These differences in response can arise simply from a range of different glacier geometries, and the same basic principles can be expected in other regions as well.

Ice-sheet simulations of Antarctica extending to the year 3000 are analysed to investigate the long-term impacts of 21st-century warming. Climate projections are used as forcing until 2100 and afterwards no climate trend is applied. Fourteen experiments are for the ‘unabated warming’ pathway, and three are for the ‘reduced emissions’ pathway. For the unabated warming path simulations, West Antarctica suffers a much more severe ice loss than East Antarctica. In these cases, the mass loss amounts to an ensemble average of ~3.5 m sea-level equivalent (SLE) by the year 3000 and ~5.3 m for the most sensitive experiment. Four phases of mass loss occur during the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. For the reduced emissions pathway, the mean mass loss is ~0.24 m SLE. By demonstrating that the consequences of the 21st century unabated warming path forcing are large and long term, the results present a different perspective to ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Extended ABUMIP (Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project) simulations, assuming sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse, with and without bedrock rebound, corroborate a negative feedback for ice loss found in previous studies, where bedrock rebound acts to slow the rate of ice loss.

Refreezing of meltwater in firn is a major component of Greenland ice-sheet's mass budget, but in situ observations are rare. Here, we compare the firn density and total ice layer thickness in the upper 15 m of 19 new and 27 previously published firn cores drilled at 15 locations in southwest Greenland (1850–2360 m a.s.l.) between 1989 and 2019. At all sites, ice layer thickness covaries with density over time and space. At the two sites with the earliest observations (1989 and 1998), bulk density increased by 15–18%, in the top 15 m over 28 and 21 years, respectively. However, following the extreme melt in 2012, elevation-detrended density using 30 cores from all sites decreased by 15 kg m−3 a−1 in the top 3.75 m between 2013 and 2019. In contrast, the lowest elevation site's density shows no trend. Thus, temporary build-up in firn pore space and meltwater infiltration capacity is possible despite the long-term increase in Greenland ice-sheet melting.

Rapid Access Ice Drill is a new drilling technology capable of quickly accessing the glacial bed of Antarctic ice sheets, retrieving ice core and rock core samples, and providing boreholes for downhole logging of physical properties. Scientific goals include searching for old ice near the glacial bed and sampling subglacial bedrock. During field trials near McMurdo Station on a piedmont glacier at Minna Bluff in the 2019–20 austral summer, we successfully completed a ‘top-to-bottom’ operational sequence in three boreholes by (1) augering through firn, (2) creating a borehole packer seal in non-porous ice, (3) establishing fluid circulation, (4) quickly drilling a borehole in ice at penetration rates up to 1.2 m min−1, (5) acquiring a short ice core at depth, (6) penetrating the glacial bed at a depth of ~677 m, (7) recovering a 3.2 m core of ice, basal till and subglacial bedrock, (8) optically logging the borehole on wireline, (9) testing hydrofracture potential by overpressuring the borehole fluid and (10) operating in an environmentally benign yet rapid field mode. Minna Bluff testing, therefore, demonstrates the effectiveness of this integrated system to drill rapidly through thick ice and penetrate across the glacial bed to take cores of bedrock.