Bayesian inference is a powerful tool in gravitational-wave astronomy. It enables us to deduce the properties of merging compact-object binaries and to determine how these mergers are distributed as a population according to mass, spin, and redshift. As key results are increasingly derived using Bayesian inference, there is increasing scrutiny on Bayesian methods. In this review, we discuss the phenomenon of model misspecification, in which results obtained with Bayesian inference are misleading because of deficiencies in the assumed model(s). Such deficiencies can impede our inferences of the true parameters describing physical systems. They can also reduce our ability to distinguish the ‘best fitting’ model: it can be misleading to say that Model A is preferred over Model B if both models are manifestly poor descriptions of reality. Broadly speaking, there are two ways in which models fail. Firstly, models that fail to adequately describe the data (either the signal or the noise) have misspecified likelihoods. Secondly, population models—designed, for example, to describe the distribution of black hole masses—may fail to adequately describe the true population due to a misspecified prior. We recommend tests and checks that are useful for spotting misspecified models using examples inspired by gravitational-wave astronomy. We include companion python notebooks to illustrate essential concepts.

Background: Electronic hand hygiene monitoring systems (EHHMSs) are being increasingly utilized to improve hand hygiene outcomes. Following the implementation of an EHHMS at a large, academic medical center, an interdisciplinary team developed a web-based survey to gather information on employee’s perceptions and behaviors surrounding the EHHMS. Methods: In total, 1,273 complete responses were collected. Responses were analyzed using Stata version 16 statistical software with 2-tailed tests and .05 significance level. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to examine factors associated with negative perceptions of the EHHMS and of wearing the EHHMS radiofrequency identification (RFID) badge. Supporting qualitative analysis was performed using Atlas.ti version 9 software. Results: The general sentiment toward the monitoring system was neutral (38%) to negative (37%). The same was true for respondents’ sentiments toward wearing the RFID badge. Of respondents who interact with the system, 48% feel that the system does not capture hand hygiene data accurately. The EHHMS had limited influence on employee’s hand hygiene habits: 27% significant influence and 54% little-to-no influence. Respondents of younger age, those employed as a registered nurse, scientist, physician, or master’s level clinician, and those working at the satellite hospital were significantly more likely to have negative perceptions of the EHHMS. Negative perceptions were also significantly more likely among respondents familiar with the institution’s hand hygiene policy and those who had a negative opinion of seeing the hand hygiene data of others. Negative perceptions of the EHHMS RFID badge were significantly more likely among respondents of younger age, those employed as a registered nurse, scientist, physician, or master’s level clinician, those working at the satellite hospital, and those with a negative perception of seeing the hand hygiene data of others. Employment in a role providing direct patient care and those employed at the institution for >1 year were also significantly more likely to have a negative perception. Conclusions: Negative and neutral opinions dominate perceptions of the EHHMS considered in this analysis. Respondents expressed concerns with accuracy of the EHHMS data collection. The system’s limited influence is likely a result of limited familiarity, limited performance feedback, and employee frustration and concerns. These findings provide opportunities for improvement in future implementation of EHHMS. Based on these results, implementation of EHHMS would be best be supported by coordinated backing from administration and leadership, advanced planning and education, and frequent, effective communication. Additional research and evaluation are required to optimize implementation of electronic hand hygiene monitoring systems, with the goal of improving hand hygiene outcomes.

Funding: None

Disclosures: None

This study aimed to explore the association between hyperglycemia in pregnancy (type 2 diabetes (T2D) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM)) and child developmental risk in Europid and Aboriginal women.

PANDORA is a longitudinal birth cohort recruited from a hyperglycemia in pregnancy register, and from normoglycemic women in antenatal clinics. The Wave 1 substudy included 308 children who completed developmental and behavioral screening between age 18 and 60 months. Developmental risk was assessed using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) or equivalent modified ASQ for use with Aboriginal children. Emotional and behavioral risk was assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between developmental scores and explanatory variables, including maternal T2D in pregnancy or GDM.

After adjustment for ethnicity, maternal and child variables, and socioeconomic measures, maternal hyperglycemia was associated with increased developmental “concern” (defined as score ≥1 SD below mean) in the fine motor (T2D odds ratio (OR) 5.30, 95% CI 1.77–15.80; GDM OR 3.96, 95% CI 1.55–10.11) and problem-solving (T2D OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.05–6.98; GDM OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.17–5.54) domains, as well as increased “risk” (score ≥2 SD below mean) in at least one domain (T2D OR 5.33, 95% CI 1.85–15.39; GDM OR 4.86, 95% CI 1.95–12.10). Higher maternal education was associated with reduced concern in the problem-solving domain (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.11–0.69) after adjustment for maternal hyperglycemia.

Maternal hyperglycemia is associated with increased developmental concern and may be a potential target for intervention so as to optimize developmental trajectories.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: 1) Describe strategies pediatric providers perceive improve chlamydia screening of sexually active female adolescents (SA), and 2) describe barriers to regular screening of SA for chlamydia METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Using qualitative methods, 14 general pediatric providers across 7 clinical sites in Vermont were interviewed to ascertain best practices and remaining challenges. Semi-structured interviews lasting 30-45 minutes were audiotaped and transcribed. Chlamydia screening rates provided by BCBS-VT were used to categorize participant responses across three performance tiers, data were coded, and themes identified within these tiers. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Facilitators: When asked to describe facilitators of chlamydia screening, providers in the top tier of chlamydia screening emphasized the importance of adequate insurance to cover the cost of testing. Providers in the middle performance tier cited use of pre-visit questionnaires, and those in the bottom performance tier identified no best practices. Other strategies included improving physician confidence and awareness, establishing practice- and individual-level routines, and providing strong leadership and communication of local screening rates. Barriers: Across the 3 performance tiers, the most common challenges to consistent chlamydia screening were threats to patient confidentiality, cost of the screening test, and requirement for patient disclosure of sexual activity. Less commonly, providers were concerned that adolescent patients were not reliable to obtain screens off-site, or fill treatment prescriptions without the help of a parent. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The need for systematic, confidential, and inexpensive means for screening SA for chlamydia was highlighted in both the best practices and challenges described by providers of pediatric care in the suburban practice setting. Policy and practice interventions may target these needs to improve the reproductive health of female adolescents.

This study aimed to determine the prevalence and assemblages of Giardia duodenalis present in Scottish beef and dairy cattle at different ages, to try to ascertain if cattle could play a role in the spread of zoonotic assemblages of Giardia. A total of 388 fecal samples (128 beef and 253 dairy, seven of unknown breed) were collected from 19 farms in Scotland. Samples were sub-divided by host age, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, 7–24 and ⩾25 weeks. DNA was extracted and tested by PCR to detect G. duodenalis DNA. Of the 388 samples, 126 tested positive, giving an overall prevalence of 32.5%, with positive samples being observed in all age groups tested. The prevalence in dairy cattle was 44.7% (113/235), which was significantly higher (P < 0.001) than the prevalence in beef cattle 10.1% (13/128). Sequence analysis demonstrated the presence of assemblage E (77.2%, sequence types E-S1–E-S5), assemblage B (18.2%) and assemblage A (sub-assemblages AI-AII) (4.6%). These data demonstrate that G. duodenalis is found routinely in both dairy and beef cattle throughout Scotland; the presence of assemblages A and B also indicates that cattle may play a role in the spread of potentially zoonotic assemblages of Giardia.

Aerogel materials manufactured from metal oxides have been used as components in numerous high-energy density physics targets. These aerogels have been identified to be used as a future target material in the AWE fielded campaigns at the US National Ignition Facility. A wide variety of metal oxide aerogels are required for future campaigns and therefore a versatile manufacturing route is sought; as such, an epoxide-assisted sol–gel route was investigated. Under the European Union Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals legislation, the most commonly used epoxide, propylene oxide, is recognized as a substance of very high concern (SVHC). This work sought to investigate suitable alternative epoxides for use in target manufacture. The outcome was the identification of synthesis routes for stable metal oxide aerogel monoliths using epoxides not subject to the above restrictions.

The recent revelation that there are correlated period derivative and pulse shape changes in pulsars has dramatically changed our understanding of timing noise as well as the relationship between the radio emission and the properties of the magnetosphere as a whole. Using Gaussian processes we are able to model timing and emission variability using a regression technique that imposes no functional form on the data. We revisit the pulsars first studied by Lyne et al. (2010). We not only confirm the emission and rotational transitions revealed therein, but reveal further transitions and periodicities in 8 years of extended monitoring. We also show that in many of these objects the pulse profile transitions between two well-defined shapes, coincident with changes to the period derivative. With a view to the SKA and other telescopes capable of higher cadence we also study the detection limitations of period derivative changes.

FK506 and rapamycin (Rap) are immunosuppressive drugs that act principally on T-lymphocytes. The receptors for both drugs are FK506-binding proteins (FKBPs), but the molecular mechanisms of immunosuppression differ. An FK506–FKBP complex inhibits the protein phosphatase calcineurin, blocking a key step in T-cell activation, while the Rap –FKBP complex binds to the protein kinase target of rapamycin (TOR), which is involved in a subsequent signalling pathway. Both drugs, and certain non-immunosuppressive compounds related to FK506, have potent antimalarial activity. There is however conflicting evidence on the involvement of Plasmodium calcineurin in the action of FK506, and the parasite lacks an apparent TOR homologue. We therefore set out to establish whether inhibition of the Plasmodium falciparum FKBP PfFKBP35 itself might be responsible for the antimalarial effects of FK506 and Rap. Similarities in the antiparasitic actions of FK506 and Rap would constitute indirect evidence for this hypothesis. FK506 and Rap acted indistinguishably on: (i) specificity for different intra-erythrocytic stages in culture, (ii) kinetics of killing or irreversible growth arrest of parasites and (iii) interactions with other antimalarial agents. Furthermore, PfFKBP35's inhibitory effect on calcineurin was independent of FK506 under a range of conditions, suggesting that calcineurin is unlikely to be involved in the antimalarial action of FK506.

Three-dimensional direct numerical simulations of a shearless mixing layer in a small fraction of the cloud–clear air interface are performed to study the response of an ensemble of cloud water droplets to the turbulent entrainment of clear air into a cloud filament. The main goal of this work is to understand how mixing of cloudy and clear air evolves as turbulence and thermodynamics interact through phase changes, and how the cloud droplets respond. In the main simulation case, mixing proceeds between a higher level of turbulence in the cloudy filament and a lower level of turbulence in the clear air environment – the typical shearless mixing layer set-up. Fluid turbulence is driven solely by buoyancy, which incorporates feedbacks from the temperature, the vapour content and the liquid water content fields. Two different variations on the core set of shearless mixing layer simulations are discussed, a simulation in a larger domain and a simulation with the same turbulence level inside the filament and its environment. Overall, it is found that, as evaporation occurs for the droplets that enter subsaturated clear air regions, buoyancy comes to dominate the subsequent evolution of the mixing layer. The buoyancy feedback leads initially to downdraughts at the cloudy–clear air interface and to updraughts in the bulk regions. The strength of the turbulence after initial transients depends on the domain size, showing that the range of scales is an important parameter in the shearless mixing layer set-up. In contrast, the level of turbulence in the clear air is found to have little effect on the evolution of the mixing process. The distributions of cloud water droplet size, supersaturation at the droplet positions and vertical velocity are more sensitive to domain size than to the details of the turbulence profile, suggesting that the evolution of cloud microphysics is more sensitive to large-scale as opposed to small-scale properties of the flow.

High-resolution δ18O and δ13C analyses of a stalagmite from Lobatse II Cave reveal late Pleistocene environmental changes in Botswana. Large shifts in δ18O and δ13C are observed between two main periods of deposition. The first period, between 51,000 and 43,000 yr B.P., was warm and humid and may have been associated with some C3 vegetation. The second period, between 27,000 and 21,000 yr B.P., had temperatures approximately 2°C lower, and vegetation dominated by drought-adapted C4 plants. The intervening period, between 43,000 and 27,000 yr B.P., bounded by two major hiatuses in stalagmite growth, produced discontinuous speleothem formation, probably under dry conditions. New 230 Th/234U mass spectrometry age determinations for the stalagmite generally agree with previously measured 230 Th/234U ages.

In this paper we estimate the demand for rock climbing and calculate welfare measures for changing access to a number of climbs at a climbing area. In addition to the novel recreation application, we extend the travel cost methodology by combining the double hurdle count data model (DH) with a multinomial logit model of site-choice. The combined model allows us simultaneously to explain the decision to participate and to allocate trips among sites. The application is to climbers who visit one of the premiere rock-climbing areas in the northeastern United States and its important substitute sites. We also estimate a conventional welfare measure, which is the maximum WTP to avoid loss of access to the climbing site.

This study offers the first systematic analysis of the impact of press-state relations, or media systems, on the HIV/AIDS news agenda in African news coverage. The premise is that media systems play a determining role in the degree to which journalists can independently advocate for social change when covering HIV/AIDS. Drawing on comparative research, four sub-Saharan countries were categorized into two media systems: Contained Democratic (South Africa, Nigeria) and Repressive Autocratic (Zimbabwe, Kenya). A sample of HIV/AIDS stories (n = 393) published from 2002–2007 in each country's leading Anglophone newspaper was content analyzed. Across all coverage, the topic of social costs was framed more for the responsibility borne by nongovernmental agents than governmental agents. In Contained Democratic media systems, however, story emphasis shifted toward government agents taking responsibility for addressing the social costs of HIV/AIDS. Prevention campaigns were framed more as progress than decline across all newspapers; however, campaigns were reported as being more efficacious in Contained Democratic systems than in Repressive Autocratic systems. No impact of media system on framing of medical developments was found. Results show the value of comparative analysis in understanding the agenda-setting process: with greater emphasis on positive efficacy and government initiative, the news agenda in Contained Democratic media systems can facilitate stronger positive societal-level responses than the news agenda in Repressive Autocratic media systems.