Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

Recent changes along the margins of the Antarctic Peninsula, such as the collapse of the Wilkins Ice Shelf, have highlighted the effects of climatic warming on the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS). However, such changes must be viewed in a long-term (millennial-scale) context if we are to understand their significance for future stability of the Antarctic ice sheets. To address this, we present nine new cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from sites on NW Alexander Island and Rothschild Island (adjacent to the Wilkins Ice Shelf) that provide constraints on the timing of thinning of the Alexander Island ice cap since the last glacial maximum. All but one of the 10Be ages are in the range 10.2–21.7 ka, showing a general trend of progressive ice-sheet thinning since at least 22 ka until 10 ka. The data also provide a minimum estimate (490 m) for ice-cap thickness on NW Alexander Island at the last glacial maximum. Cosmogenic 3He ages from a rare occurrence of mantle xenoliths on Rothschild Island yield variable ages up to 46 ka, probably reflecting exhumation by periglacial processes.

Glacial sediments of the western Scottish Highlands are comprehensively described and characterized here for the first time, enabling the first glacial stratigraphy for the area to be proposed. This classification is based on the results of extensive geological mapping and field investigation of sedimentary sequences and their structures, X-ray diffraction and particle size distribution analyses, and comparison with deposits formed in contemporary glaciated environments. These new data are subsequently appraised in terms of their implications for late Pleistocene glacier evolution and dynamics. Together, the data suggest that much of the landscape is palimpsest, and can be attributed to the Weichselian (Late Devensian) glaciation. Subsequent glacier advance during the Younger Dryas did little to modify the area, suggesting that ice flow was dominated by sliding on a meltwater-lubricated rigid bed, with deformation of basal sediments playing a more limited role. Final deglaciation was marked by a significant increase in basal meltwater flux, reflecting the warming climate and increasing precipitation. These new palaeoglaciological and palaeoenvironmental insights advance our understanding of former glacier dynamics in the western Scottish Highlands, improve our knowledge of Pleistocene landscape evolution of this area, and enable comparisons to be made with sedimentary sequences elsewhere.

In mountainous terrain, the relationship between ice sheet dynamics and basal topography is complex, with each component influencing the other. This paper investigates how the last glacial maximum Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet might have modified its bed both at maximum extent and during progressive grounding line retreat. Focussing on the Marguerite Trough Ice Stream we then examine the degree to which basal topographical conditions affected the rate of ocean-forced recession. Zones of peak subglacial erosion are preferentially located in areas of convergent flow and where horizontal strain rates are highest. During ice sheet retreat, potential erosion rates increase in these areas, but the foci remain fixed. This leads to selective and progressive deepening of subglacial basins. As grounding lines migrate landward, faster retreat tends to occur over subglacial basins, especially if flow is divergent, whereas slower retreat takes place on sloping beds and where the geometry of the outlet allows convergent flow and a non-negative flux balance. In conclusion the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet selectively erodes its bed beneath linear outlets and, over successive glacial cycles, progressive deepening of subglacial basins may bring about non-linear retreat of the ice sheet margin.

Ice-thickness measurements in Antarctic ice-shelf grounding zones are necessary for calculating the mass balance of individual catchments, but remain poorly constrained for most of the continent. We describe a new inverse modelling optimization approach to estimate ice thickness in the grounding zone of Antarctic outlet glaciers and ice shelves using spatial patterns of tide-induced flexure derived from differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). We demonstrate that the illposedness of the inverse formulation of the elastic-plate equations for bending can be controlled by regularization. In one dimension, the model recreates smooth, synthesized profiles of ice thickness from flexure information to within 1–2%. We test the method in two dimensions and validate it in the grounding zone of Beardmore Glacier, a major outlet glacier in the Transantarctic Mountains, using interferograms created from TerraSAR-X satellite imagery acquired in 2012. We compare our results with historic and modern ice-thickness data (radio-echo sounding from 1967 and ground-penetrating radar from 2010). We match both longitudinal and transverse thickness transects to within 50 m root-mean-square error using an effective Young’s modulus of 1.4 GPa. The highest accuracy is achieved close to the grounded ice boundary, where current estimates of thickness based on surface elevation measurements contain a systematic bias towards thicker ice.

We present a diagnostic glacier flowline model parameterized and constrained by new velocity data from ice-surface GPS installations and speckle tracking of TerraSAR-X satellite images, newly acquired airborne-radar data, and continental gridded datasets of topography and geothermal heat flux, in order to better understand two outlet glaciers of the East Antarctic ice sheet. Our observational data are employed as primary inputs to a modelling procedure that first calculates the basal thermal regime of each glacier, then iterates the basal sliding coefficient and deformation rate parameter until the fit of simulated to observed surface velocities is optimized. We find that the two glaciers have both frozen and thawed areas at their beds, facilitating partial sliding. Glacier flow arises from a balance between sliding and deformation that fluctuates along the length of each glacier, with the amount of sliding typically varying by up to two orders of magnitude but with deformation rates far more constant. Beardmore Glacier is warmer and faster-flowing than Skelton Glacier, but an up-glacier deepening bed at the grounding line, coupled with ice thicknesses close to flotation, lead us to infer a greater vulnerability of Skelton Glacier to grounding-line recession if affected by ocean-forced thinning and concomitant acceleration.

We use an empirically validated high-resolution three-dimensional ice-sheet model to investigate the mass-balance regime, flow mechanisms and subglacial characteristics of a simulated Younger Dryas Stadial ice cap in Scotland, and compare the resulting model forecasts with geological evidence. Input data for the model are basal topography, a temperature forcing derived from GRIP δ18O fluctuations and a precipitation distribution interpolated from modern data. The model employs a positive-degree-day scheme to calculate net mass balance within a domain of 112500 km2, which, under the imposed climate, gives rise to an elongate ice cap along the axis of the western Scottish Highlands. At its maximum, the ice cap is dynamically and thermally zoned, reflecting topographic and climatic controls, respectively. In order to link these palaeoglaciological conditions to geological interpretations, we calculate the relative balance between sliding and creep within the simulated ice cap, forecast areas of the ice cap with the greatest capacity for basal erosion and predict the likely pattern of subglacial drainage. We conclude that ice flow in central areas of the ice cap is largely due to internal deformation, and is associated with geological evidence of landscape preservation. Conversely, the distribution of streamlined landforms is linked to faster-flowing ice whose velocity is predominantly the result of basal sliding. The geometry of the main ice mass focuses subglacial erosion in the mid-sections of topographic troughs, and produces glaciohydraulic gradients that favour subglacial drainage through low-order arterial routes.