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Health system preparedness for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) includes projecting the number and timing of cases requiring various types of treatment. Several tools were developed to assist in this planning process. This review highlights models that project both caseload and hospital capacity requirements over time.
We systematically reviewed the medical and engineering literature according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We completed searches using PubMed, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, Google Scholar, and the Google search engine.
The search strategy identified 690 articles. For a detailed review, we selected 6 models that met our predefined criteria. Half of the models did not include age-stratified parameters, and only 1 included the option to represent a second wave. Hospital patient flow was simplified in all models; however, some considered more complex patient pathways. One model included fatality ratios with length of stay (LOS) adjustments for survivors versus those who die, and accommodated different LOS for critical care patients with or without a ventilator.
The results of our study provide information to physicians, hospital administrators, emergency response personnel, and governmental agencies on available models for preparing scenario-based plans for responding to the COVID-19 or similar type of outbreak.
Ambulatory healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) occur frequently in children and are associated with morbidity. Less is known about ambulatory HAI costs. This study estimated additional costs associated with pediatric ambulatory central-line–associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI), and surgical site infections (SSIs) following ambulatory surgery.
Retrospective case-control study.
Four academic medical centers.
Children aged 0–22 years seen between 2010 and 2015 and at risk for HAI as identified by electronic queries.
Chart review adjudicated HAIs. Charges were obtained for patients with HAIs and matched controls 30 days before HAI, on the day of, and 30 days after HAI. Charges were converted to costs and 2015 USD. Mixed-effects linear regression was used to estimate the difference-in-differences of HAI case versus control costs in 2 models: unrecorded charge values considered missing and a sensitivity analysis with unrecorded charge considered $0.
Our search identified 177 patients with ambulatory CLABSIs, 53 with ambulatory CAUTIs, and 26 with SSIs following ambulatory surgery who were matched with 382, 110, and 75 controls, respectively. Additional cost associated with an ambulatory CLABSI was $5,684 (95% confidence interval [CI], $1,005–$10,362) and $6,502 (95% CI, $2,261–$10,744) in the 2 models; cost associated with a CAUTI was $6,660 (95% CI, $1,055, $12,145) and $2,661 (95% CI, −$431 to $5,753); cost associated with an SSI following ambulatory surgery at 1 institution only was $6,370 (95% CI, $4,022–$8,719).
Ambulatory HAI in pediatric patients are associated with significant additional costs. Further work is needed to reduce ambulatory HAIs.
Brain imaging studies have shown altered amygdala activity during emotion processing in children and adolescents with oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and conduct disorder (CD) compared to typically developing children and adolescents (TD). Here we aimed to assess whether aggression-related subtypes (reactive and proactive aggression) and callous-unemotional (CU) traits predicted variation in amygdala activity and skin conductance (SC) response during emotion processing.
We included 177 participants (n = 108 cases with disruptive behaviour and/or ODD/CD and n = 69 TD), aged 8–18 years, across nine sites in Europe, as part of the EU Aggressotype and MATRICS projects. All participants performed an emotional face-matching functional magnetic resonance imaging task.
Differences between cases and TD in affective processing, as well as specificity of activation patterns for aggression subtypes and CU traits, were assessed. Simultaneous SC recordings were acquired in a subsample (n = 63). Cases compared to TDs showed higher amygdala activity in response to negative faces (fearful and angry) v. shapes. Subtyping cases according to aggression-related subtypes did not significantly influence on amygdala activity; while stratification based on CU traits was more sensitive and revealed decreased amygdala activity in the high CU group. SC responses were significantly lower in cases and negatively correlated with CU traits, reactive and proactive aggression.
Our results showed differences in amygdala activity and SC responses to emotional faces between cases with ODD/CD and TD, while CU traits moderate both central (amygdala) and peripheral (SC) responses. Our insights regarding subtypes and trait-specific aggression could be used for improved diagnostics and personalized treatment.
Catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) occur frequently in pediatric inpatients, and they are associated with increased morbidity and cost. Few studies have investigated ambulatory CAUTIs, despite at-risk children utilizing home urinary catheterization. This retrospective cohort and case-control study determined incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of pediatric patients with ambulatory CAUTI.
Broad electronic queries identified potential patients with ambulatory urinary catheters, and direct chart review confirmed catheters and adjudicated whether ambulatory CAUTI occurred. CAUTI definitions included clean intermittent catheterization (CIC). Our matched case-control analysis assessed risk factors.
Five urban, academic medical centers, part of the New York City Clinical Data Research Network.
Potential patients were age <22 years who were seen between October 2010 and September 2015.
In total, 3,598 eligible patients were identified; 359 of these used ambulatory catheterization (representing186,616 ambulatory catheter days). Of these, 63 patients (18%) experienced 95 ambulatory CAUTIs. The overall ambulatory CAUTI incidence was 0.51 infections per 1,000 catheter days (1.35 for indwelling catheters and 0.47 for CIC; incidence rate ratio, 2.88). Patients with nonprivate medical insurance (odds ratio, 2.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1–6.3) were significantly more likely to have ambulatory CAUTIs in bivariate models but not multivariable models. Also, 45% of ambulatory CAUTI resulted in hospitalization (median duration, 3 days); 5% resulted in intensive care admission; 47% underwent imaging; and 88% were treated with antibiotics.
Pediatric ambulatory CAUTIs occur in 18% of patients with catheters; they are associated with morbidity and healthcare utilization. Ambulatory indwelling catheter CAUTI incidence exceeded national inpatient incidence. Future quality improvement research to reduce these harmful infections is warranted.
Multidrug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae pose a serious infection control challenge and have emerged as a public health threat. We examined national trends in the proportion of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates resistant to carbapenems (CRKP) and third-generation cephalosporins (G3CRKP).
Design and Setting.
Retrospective analysis of approximately 500,000 K. pneumoniae isolates cultured between January 1999 and July 2010 at 287 clinical laboratories throughout the United States.
Isolates were defined as CRKP if they were nonsusceptible to 1 or more carbapenems and were defined as G3CRKP if they were nonsusceptible to ceftazidime, ceftriaxone, or related antibiotics. A multivariable analysis examined trends in the proportion of resistant isolates, adjusting for age, sex, isolate source, patient location, and geographic region.
The crude proportion of CRKP increased from less than 0.1% to 4.5% between 2002 and 2010; the frequency of G3CRKP increased from 5.3% to 11.5% between 1999 and 2010. G3CRKP and CRKP were more common among elderly patients (those greater than 65 years of age); the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) relative to pediatric patients (those less than 18 years of age) was 1.2 for G3CRKP (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–1.3) and 3.3 for CRKP (95% CI, 2.6–4.2). G3CRKP and CRKP were also more common among patients from the northeastern United States (aOR, 2.9 [95% CI, 2.8–3.0] and 9.0 [95% CI, 7.9–10.4]) than among those from the western United States. The prevalence of outpatient CRKP isolates increased after 2006, reaching 1.9% of isolates in our sample in 2010 (95% CI, 1.6%–2.1%).
The frequency of G3CRKP and CRKP is increasing in all regions of the United States, and resistance is emerging among isolates recovered in the outpatient setting. This underscores the need for enhanced laboratory capacity and coordinated surveillance strategies to contain the further spread of these emerging pathogens.
Freshwater ecosystems play a key role in the European nitrogen (N) cycle, both as a reactive agent that transfers, stores and processes N loadings from the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, and as a natural environment severely impacted by the increase of these loadings.
This chapter is a review of major processes and factors controlling N transport and transformations for running waters, standing waters, groundwaters and riparian wetlands.
Key findings/state of knowledge
The major factor controlling N processes in freshwater ecosystems is the residence time of water, which varies widely both in space and in time, and which is sensitive to changes in climate, land use and management.
The effects of increased N loadings to European freshwaters include acidification in semi-natural environments, and eutrophication in more disturbed ecosystems, with associated loss of biodiversity in both cases.
An important part of the nitrogen transferred by surface waters is in the form of organic N, as dissolved organic N (DON) and particulate organic N (PON). This part is dominant in semi-natural catchments throughout Europe and remains a significant component of the total N load even in nitrate enriched rivers.
In eutrophicated standing freshwaters N can be a factor limiting or co-limiting biological production, and control of both N and phosphorus (P) loading is often needed in impacted areas, if ecological quality is to be restored.