The clinical course of psychotic disorders is highly variable. Typically, researchers have captured different course types using broad pre-defined categories. However, whether these adequately capture symptom trajectories of psychotic disorders has not been fully assessed. Using data from AESOP-10, we sought to identify classes of individuals with specific symptom trajectories over a 10-year follow-up using a data-driven approach.

AESOP-10 is a follow-up, at 10 years, of 532 incident cases with a first episode of psychosis initially identified in south-east London and Nottingham, UK. Using extensive information on fluctuations in the presence of psychotic symptoms, we fitted growth mixture models to identify latent trajectory classes that accounted for heterogeneity in the patterns of change in psychotic symptoms over time.

We had sufficient data on psychotic symptoms during the follow-up on 326 incident patients. A four-class quadratic growth mixture model identified four trajectories of psychotic symptoms: (1) remitting-improving (58.5%); (2) late decline (5.6%); (3) late improvement (5.4%); (4) persistent (30.6%). A persistent trajectory, compared with remitting-improving, was associated with gender (more men), black Caribbean ethnicity, low baseline education and high disadvantage, low premorbid IQ, a baseline diagnosis of non-affective psychosis and long DUP. Numbers were small, but there were indications that those with a late decline trajectory more closely resembled those with a persistent trajectory.

Our current approach to categorising the course of psychotic disorders may misclassify patients. This may confound efforts to elucidate the predictors of long-term course and related biomarkers.

To determine the baseline individual characteristics that predicted symptom recovery and functional recovery at 10-years following the first episode of psychosis.

AESOP-10 is a 10-year follow up of an epidemiological, naturalistic population-based cohort of individuals recruited at the time of their first episode of psychosis in two areas in the UK (South East London and Nottingham). Detailed information on demographic, clinical, and social factors was examined to identify which factors predicted symptom and functional remission and recovery over 10-year follow-up. The study included 557 individuals with a first episode psychosis. The main study outcomes were symptom recovery and functional recovery at 10-year follow-up.

At 10 years, 46.2% (n = 140 of 303) of patients achieved symptom recovery and 40.9% (n = 117) achieved functional recovery. The strongest predictor of symptom recovery at 10 years was symptom remission at 12 weeks (adj OR 4.47; CI 2.60–7.67); followed by a diagnosis of depression with psychotic symptoms (adj OR 2.68; CI 1.02–7.05). Symptom remission at 12 weeks was also a strong predictor of functional recovery at 10 years (adj OR 2.75; CI 1.23–6.11), together with being from Nottingham study centre (adj OR 3.23; CI 1.25–8.30) and having a diagnosis of mania (adj OR 8.17; CI 1.61–41.42).

Symptom remission at 12 weeks is an important predictor of both symptom and functional recovery at 10 years, with implications for illness management. The concepts of clinical and functional recovery overlap but should be considered separately.

Neuropsychological investigations can help untangle the aetiological and phenomenological heterogeneity of schizophrenia but have scarcely been employed in the context of treatment-resistant (TR) schizophrenia. No population-based study has examined neuropsychological function in the first-episode of TR psychosis.

We report baseline neuropsychological findings from a longitudinal, population-based study of first-episode psychosis, which followed up cases from index admission to 10 years. At the 10-year follow up patients were classified as treatment responsive or TR after reconstructing their entire case histories. Of 145 cases with neuropsychological data at baseline, 113 were classified as treatment responsive, and 32 as TR at the 10-year follow-up.

Compared with 257 community controls, both case groups showed baseline deficits in three composite neuropsychological scores, derived from principal component analysis: verbal intelligence and fluency, visuospatial ability and executive function, and verbal memory and learning (p values⩽0.001). Compared with treatment responders, TR cases showed deficits in verbal intelligence and fluency, both in the extended psychosis sample (t = −2.32; p = 0.022) and in the schizophrenia diagnostic subgroup (t = −2.49; p = 0.017). Similar relative deficits in the TR cases emerged in sub-/sensitivity analyses excluding patients with delayed-onset treatment resistance (p values<0.01–0.001) and those born outside the UK (p values<0.05).

Verbal intelligence and fluency are impaired in patients with TR psychosis compared with those who respond to treatment. This differential is already detectable – at a group level – at the first illness episode, supporting the conceptualisation of TR psychosis as a severe, pathogenically distinct variant, embedded in aberrant neurodevelopmental processes.

The incidence of psychotic disorders is elevated in some minority ethnic populations. However, we know little about the outcome of psychoses in these populations.

To investigate patterns and determinants of long-term course and outcome of psychoses by ethnic group following a first episode.

ÆSOP-10 is a 10-year follow-up of an ethnically diverse cohort of 532 individuals with first-episode psychosis identified in the UK. Information was collected, at baseline, on clinical presentation and neurodevelopmental and social factors and, at follow-up, on course and outcome.

There was evidence that, compared with White British, Black Caribbean patients experienced worse clinical, social and service use outcomes and Black African patients experienced worse social and service use outcomes. There was evidence that baseline social disadvantage contributed to these disparities.

These findings suggest ethnic disparities in the incidence of psychoses extend, for some groups, to worse outcomes in multiple domains.

Several studies have suggested that neuropsychological and structural brain deficits are implicated in poor insight. Few insight studies however have combined neurocognitive and structural neuroanatomical measures.

Focusing on the ability to relabel psychotic symptoms as pathological, we examined insight, brain structure and neurocognition in first-onset psychosis.

Voxel-based magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired from 82 individuals with psychosis and 91 controls assessed with a brief neuropsychological test battery. Insight was measured using the Schedule for the Assessment of Insight.

The principal analysis showed reduced general neuropsychological function was linked to poor symptom relabelling ability. A subsequent between-psychosis group analysis found those with no symptom relabelling ability had significant global and regional grey matter deficits primarily located at the posterior cingulate gyrus and right precuneus/cuneus.

The cingulate gyrus (as part of a midline cortical system) along with right hemisphere regions may be involved in illness and symptom self-appraisal in first-onset psychosis.

Identifying neurocognitive subtypes in schizophrenia may help establish neurobiologically meaningful subtypes of the disorder, but is frequently confounded by differences in intellectual function between individuals with schizophrenia and controls.

To examine neuropsychological performance in individuals with epidemiologically based, first-onset schizophrenia and intellectually matched controls.

Using standard IQ and reading tests, we examined the proportions of 101 people with epidemiologically derived, first-onset schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder and 317 community controls, falling into three a priori defined intellectual categories: ‘stable good’, ‘deteriorated poor’ and ‘stable poor’. Neuropsychological function was compared between intellectually matched participants with schizophrenia and control subgroups.

Multiple deficits in executive function, processing speed and verbal memory, but not visual/spatial perception/memory, were detected in all participant groups with schizophrenia compared with controls. The average effect size across the affected domains ranged from small to medium to large in the stable good, deteriorated poor and stable poor subgroups of participants with schizophrenia, respectively.

Compared with intellectually matched controls, people with epidemiologically derived, first-onset schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder show multiple deficits in executive function, processing speed and verbal memory.

In low-and middle-income countries people with schizophrenia are reported to experience better outcomes than those in high-income countries

To examine structural brain differences in people with first-episode psychosis and controls in Brazil

Magnetic resonance imaging using voxel-based morphometry was performed on 122 people with first-episode psychosis and 94 controls

There were significant decreases in grey matter in the left superior temporal and inferior prefrontal cortices, insula bilaterally and the right hippocampal region in first-episode psychosis (P<0.05, corrected for multiple comparisons). The subgroup of people with schizophrenia (n=62) exhibited a similar pattern of decrease in grey matter relative to controls

Structural abnormalities reported in psychosis in high-income countries are also present in first-episode psychosis in Brazil

First-episode psychosis is typically preceded by a prodrome in which there is deterioration in global and social functioning

To examine whether the duration of the prodromal phase influences grey and white matter volumes at the onset of psychosis

Eighty-two people were scanned using magnetic resonance imaging when they developed a first episode of psychosis. The duration of the prodromal phase was estimated from detailed interviews and medical records. Voxel-based morphometry was used to assess neuroanatomical abnormalities

A long prodromal phase was associated with smaller grey matter volumes in the cingulate, frontal and left insular cortex, and with less white matter volume bilaterally in the superior longitudinal and uncinate fasciculi and the cingulum

The severity of volumetric abnormalities in first-episode psychosis was greater in those with a long prodrome

Despite considerable research investigating the relationship between a long duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) and outcomes, there has been much less considering predictors of a long DUP.

To investigate the clinical and social determinants of DUP in a large sample of patients with a first episode of psychosis.

All patients with a first episode of psychosis who made contact with psychiatric services over a 2-year period and were living in defined catchment areas in London and Nottingham, UK were included in the ÆSOP study Data relating to clinical and social variables and to DUP were collected from patients, relatives and case notes.

An insidious mode of onset was associated with a substantially longer DUP compared with an acute onset, independent of other factors. Unemployment had a similar, if less strong, effect. Conversely family involvement in help-seeking was independently associated with a shorter duration. There was weak evidence that durations were longer in London than in Nottingham.

These findings suggest that DUP is influenced both by aspects of the early clinical course and by the social context.