INTRODUCTION

Ten years since the new Constitution was adopted in 2008, Myanmar's political landscape has significantly changed. Elections and elected governments now define politics, although huge obstacles remain to be overcome where the Constitution is concerned. General elections take place every five years in accordance with the Constitution and a series of election laws; the next general elections are to be held in 2020. The National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi won a landslide victory in the 2015 elections, both in Bamar-dominated areas and ethnic minority areas except Rakhine and Shan States. Voters heavily voted for the NLD in the hope of prosperity and sustainable peace in accordance with the NLD's election campaign slogan, “It's time for change, Vote to NLD.”

Voters had unrealistically high hopes for the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD government, thinking that they would solve or ease the protracted crisis in Rakhine State with the support of international community since Aung San Suu Kyi had close relationship with foreign countries especially with the West. These voters also thought that the NLD government could tackle ethnic armed conflicts since she was strongly supported by ethnic voters. Instead, the situation in Rakhine State and the ethnic conflicts worsened, and commodity prices gradually rose day by day because of the political uncertainty. Frustration has been growing in the two and a half years since the NLD came into power. In by-elections held in April 2017, the NLD only secured nine seats out of eighteen, a warning sign for the NLD in the 2020 general elections.

The crisis in Rakhine State energized nationalism especially among the majority Buddhist population, and the stalled peace process and the erection of statues of General Aung San in ethnic areas escalated existing anti-Bamar sentiment among ethnic minority populations. In addition, observers view that sensitive civil–military relations between the NLD government and the military or Tatmadaw has become more tense since the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) call for Myanmar generals to be prosecuted for genocide and for the setting up of an independent inquiry commission on Rakhine State.