Thirty-one years of experience as a diplomat has made me very skeptical about predicting the future. How many German experts (including myself) predicted German reunification in our lifetime? And it was only a few years ago that conventional wisdom was that 1992 would be the year of Europe — that is, the European Community would unite to become the most powerful and dynamic economy in the world. The problem is that unforeseen difficulties (for example, the astronomical costs of German reunification) create unpredicted consequences that change the pattern of events (such as the drain on German resources plunging Europe into recession).

Most indicators suggest that the twenty-first century will be “The Pacific Century”. One does not have to be of the doom and gloom school of Michael Dobbs-Higginson, who predicts a trade war between Europe, NAFTA and Asia, to accept the possibility that things could go wrong. A trade war between the United States and Japan, war on the Korean peninsula, and mass migration should China become unstable, are just a few of the possible disruptions that could check the economic growth and prosperity in Asia. The question is how likely these things (or equally disruptive events) will happen. It is impossible for any person or group to predict.

However, assuming that we muddle through and maintain relative stability in the Asia–Pacific region, the prognosis looks good. If, as it appears now, a consensus may be developing among the APEC Leaders, who will meet in Indonesia, to accept the goal of achieving free trade in the region by 2020, then the prognosis is indeed bright. However, even if the Asia–Pacific economies do not reach the goal of free trade by 2020, but continue chipping away at barriers to trade and investment, they will continue to fuel economic growth and prosperity. It will be necessary, at the same time, to accelerate APEC programmes with a developmental thrust, such as human resource development and technology transfer, so that the less developed economies in APEC can catch up.