In considering the future of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the role of ASEAN in it, it would be useful to focus on five issues — participation, the subjects for discussion, the question of leadership, the nature of confidence building, and the prospects of preventive diplomacy.

Participation

At its August 2007 ministerial meeting, the ARF admitted Sri Lanka as its twenty-seventh participant. The forum had started out with eighteen – the then-six ASEAN members; the then-seven Dialogue Partners; the observers, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam and Laos; and China and Russia, at that time “consultative” partners which were not yet in the ASEAN dialogue system. Despite repeated expressions of resolve to limit the size of the forum through “moratoriums” on the admission of new participants, the ARF has expanded steadily since then. Cambodia and Myanmar entered the forum when, in 1995 and 1996, respectively, they became ASEAN observers on their way to membership. India came in when it became an ASEAN Dialogue Partner in 1996. Mongolia was admitted in 1999, North Korea in 2000, Pakistan in 2004, Timor-Leste in 2005, Bangladesh in 2006, and Sri Lanka in 2007.

The entry of three South Asian states within the space of three years has inevitably raised the question of whether this means that the ARF is expanding its “geographic footprint” from its original coverage of Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and Oceania to encompass South Asia as well. The admission of the three South Asian nations, in addition to India, was reportedly subject to the condition — whether explicitly or implicitly is not clear — that the forum's “geographic footprint” would not thereby change. In any case, there does not seem to be an interest on the part of any of the states in the subcontinent to raise strictly South Asian issues in the ARF — at least, so far. Moreover, some participants feel more comfortable having several states represent South Asia in the ARF than India alone. Other participants contend that India has a strategic interest and role in East Asia — that is, in the ARF's “geographic footprint” — where the other South Asians do not.