Key words: euro-zone, convergence indicators, Analytic Network Process (ANP)

Abstract

The aticle presents a solution to a real, current and significant problem for Poland. Poland, as a new EU country should join the Economic and Monetary Union – the euro-zone after fulfilling the convergence criteria set by the Maastricht Treaty, as soon as possible. Entering the zone it should gain in many economic, social and political fields. We can therefore look for new opportunities. However, entering the euro-zone is results also in costs and risks. The paper aims to find an alternative which would maximize benefits and opportunities and minimalize costs and risks. The alternatives were developed – early, medium-term and late entry of Poland's into the euro-zone. The problem was solved by use of Analytical Network Process. Using multiplicative and additive/negative mathematical formulae the conclusions show, without any doubt, that Poland should enter the euro-zone late, that is after 2011.

INTRODUCTION

The day of 1st January 2002 brought the European Union into life – 300 million EU inhabitants (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Greece, Spain, Holland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Germany, Portugal and Italy) received a new euro currency. On May 1st 2004, 10 subsequent countries (Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Hungary); and on January 1st 2007 two further countries namely Bulgaria and Romania committed themselves to enter the monetary union as soon as possible after they fulfil convergence criteria. According to the Maastricht Treaty of 7.02.1992 all EU member countries shall, as the end result, enter the economic and currency union. Entering countries had or have to accept the Treaty without any conditions.

Only Great Britain and Denmark had not entered the euro-zone, but they have an “opt-out” clause by which they can but do not have to enter, whereas Sweden did not manage to get social acceptance on giving up their “crown” and accepting euro in 2003 referendum, without defining the date of its entry into the currency union. In the euro line Bulgaria and Romania have been since 1.01.2007.