Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Content
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Part I Introduction to Biosurveillance
- Part II Situational Awareness
- Part III Early Event Detection
- 6 Early Event Detection Design and Performance Evaluation
- 7 Univariate Temporal Methods
- 8 Multivariate Temporal and Spatio-temporal Methods
- Part IV Putting It All Together
- Part V Appendices
8 - Multivariate Temporal and Spatio-temporal Methods
from Part III - Early Event Detection
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 March 2013
- Frontmatter
- Content
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Part I Introduction to Biosurveillance
- Part II Situational Awareness
- Part III Early Event Detection
- 6 Early Event Detection Design and Performance Evaluation
- 7 Univariate Temporal Methods
- 8 Multivariate Temporal and Spatio-temporal Methods
- Part IV Putting It All Together
- Part V Appendices
Summary
The real purpose of scientific method is to make sure Nature hasn't misled you into thinking you know something you don't actually know. There's not a mechanic or scientist or technician alive who hasn't suffered from that one so much that he's not instinctively on guard. That's the main reason why so much scientific and mechanical information sounds so dull and cautious. If you get careless or go romanticizing scientific information, giving it a flourish here and there, Nature will soon make a complete fool out of you.
Robert M. Pirsig (1999, pp. 108–109)Current biosurveillance systems run multiple simultaneous univariate early event detection (EED) methods, each focused on detecting an increase in the time series of a single syndrome. Woodall and Ncube (1985) first proposed the application of simultaneous univariate cumulative sums (CUSUMs) in a multivariate application. Multiple simultaneous univariate methods have the advantages of ease of implementation and interpretation, but they can be less sensitive to some types of changes compared with multivariate methods. Also, unless the signal thresholds of the multiple simultaneous procedures are properly set, they can suffer from a higher than desired combined false alarm rate.
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Introduction to Statistical Methods for BiosurveillanceWith an Emphasis on Syndromic Surveillance, pp. 218 - 250Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2013