Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-25wd4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-27T11:54:58.628Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

6 - Learning of judgment and decision-making strategies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 December 2011

Mandeep K. Dhami
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
Anne Schlottmann
Affiliation:
University College London
Michael R. Waldmann
Affiliation:
Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen, Germany
Get access

Summary

Introduction

People learn many skills throughout their lives, such as how to drive a car, roast a turkey, or identify people whom they can trust. People not only learn through the help of parents, teachers, and books, but also often simply on the basis of personal experience. The goal of the present chapter is to show how models of bounded rationality benefit from considering individual learning processes to explain people’s decision skills. Learning is a “missing link” in decision-making research because it provides an explanation of how people are able to adapt their decision making to specific situations.

In this chapter we first present an overview of the bounded rationality approaches that have largely neglected learning when accounting for people’s decision-making processes. Second, we present models of learning that address how people can learn the values of options and decision strategies. Overall, we aim to show that learning can account for individuals adapting their choices to the statistical structure of environments. This adaptation takes place either directly, by changing people’s preferences for the available choice options, or indirectly, by changing people’s preferences for the decision strategies that determine the choice between options. At the end of the chapter, we discuss the connection of learning and decision making to extant neuroscience research and, more generally, the opportunities afforded by, and limitations of, the learning perspective on decision making.

Type
Chapter
Information
Judgment and Decision Making as a Skill
Learning, Development and Evolution
, pp. 143 - 168
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, J. R. 1991 Is human cognition adaptiveBehavioral & Brain Sciences 14 471CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barron, G.Erev, I. 2003 Small feedback-based decisions and their limited correspondence to description-based decisionsJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 215CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beach, L. R.Mitchell, T. R. 1978 A contingency model for the selection of decision strategiesAcademy of Management Review 3 439CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bechara, A.Damasio, A. R.Damasio, H.Anderson, S. W. 1994 Insensitivity to future consequences following damage to human prefrontal cortexCognition 50 7CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Berridge, K. C.Robinson, T. E. 2003 Parsing rewardTrends in Neurosciences 26 507CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Biele, G.Rieskamp, J.Gonzalez, R. 2009 Combining advice and experience: How people use advice to make good choicesCognitive Science 33 206CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birnbaum, M. H. 1983 Base rates in Bayesian inference: Signal detection analysis of the cab problemAmerican Journal of Psychology 96 85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bower, G. H.Hilgard, E. R. 1981 Theories of learningEnglewood Cliffs, NJPrentice-HallGoogle Scholar
Bröder, A.Schiffer, S. 2006 Adaptive flexibility and maladaptive routines in selecting fast and frugal decision strategiesJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 32 904Google ScholarPubMed
Brown, J. W.Braver, T. S. 2005 Learned predictions of error likelihood in the anterior cingulate cortexScience 307 1118CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brown, N. R.Siegler, R. S. 1993 Metrics and mappings: A framework for understanding real-world quantitative estimationPsychological Review 100 511CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bruine de Bruin, W.Parker, A. M.Fischhoff, B. 2007 An individual differences approach to measuring adult decision-making competenceJournal of Personality and Social Psychology 92 938CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brunswik, E. 1943 Organismic achievement and environmental probabilityPsychological Review 50 255CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Busemeyer, J. 1993 Violations of the speed accuracy trade-off relation: Decrease in decision accuracy with increases in timeSvenson, O.Maule, J.Time pressure and stress in human judgment and decision making181New YorkPlenum PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Busemeyer, J. R.Jessup, R. K.Johnson, J. G.Townsend, J. T. 2006 Building bridges between neural models and complex decision making behaviourNeural Networks 19 1047CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Busemeyer, J. R.Myung, I. J. 1992 An adaptive approach to human decision making: Learning theory, decision theory, and human performanceJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 121 177CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Busemeyer, J. R.Stout, J. C. 2002 A contribution of cognitive decision models to clinical assessment: Decomposing performance on the Bechara gambling taskPsychological Assessment 14 253CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bush, R. R.Mosteller, F. 1955 Stochastic models for learningNew YorkWileyCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen-Szalanski, J. J. 1978 Problem solving strategies: A selection mechanism, some implications, and some dataOrganizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 22 307CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, J. D.Botvinick, M.Carter, C. S. 2000 Anterior cingulate and prefrontal cortex: Who’s in controlNature Neuroscience 3 421CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Coyle, T. R.Read, L. E.Gaultney, J. F.Bjorklund, D. F. 1998 Giftedness and variability in strategic processing on a multitrial memory task: Evidence for stability in gifted cognitionLearning & Individual Differences 10 273CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dayan, P.Daw, N. D. 2008 Decision theory, reinforcement learning, and the brainCognitive, Affective & Behavioral Neuroscience 8 429CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dougherty, M. R.Franco-Watkins, A.Thomas, R. P. 2008 The psychological plausibility of fast and frugal heuristicsPsychological Review 115 199CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Einhorn, H. J. 1970 The use of nonlinear, noncompensatory models in decision makingPsychological Bulletin 73 221CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Erev, I. 1998 Signal detection by human observers: A cutoff reinforcement learning model of categorization decisions under uncertaintyPsychological Review 105 280CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Erev, I.Barron, G. 2005 On adaptation, maximization and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategiesPsychological Review 112 912CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Erev, I.Roth, A. E. 1998 Predicting how people play games: Reinforcement learning in experimental games with unique, mixed strategy equilibriaAmerican Economic Review 88 848Google Scholar
Erev, I.Roth, A. E. 2001 Simple reinforcement learning models and reciprocation in the prisoner’s dilemma gameGigerenzer, G.Selten, R.Bounded rationality: The adaptive toolbox215Cambridge, MAMIT PressGoogle Scholar
Estes, W. K. 1950 Toward a statistical theory of learningPsychological Review 57 94CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiske, A. P. 1992 The four elementary forms of sociality: Framework for a unified theory of social relationsPsychological Review 99 689CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ford, J. K.Schmitt, N.Schechtman, S. L.Hults, B. M.Doherty, M. L. 1989 Process tracing methods: Contributions, problems, and neglected research questionsOrganizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 43 75CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frank, M. J.Claus, E. D. 2006 Anatomy of a decision: Striato-orbitofrontal interactions in reinforcement learning, decision making, and reversalPsychological Review 113 300CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gaissmaier, W.Schooler, L. J.Mata, R. 2008 An ecological perspective to cognitive limits: Modeling environment-mind interactions with ACT-RJudgment and Decision Making 3 278Google Scholar
Gaissmaier, W.Schooler, L. J.Rieskamp, J. 2006 Simple predictions fueled by capacity limitations: When are they successfulJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition 32 966Google ScholarPubMed
Gibson, J. J. 1979 The ecological approach to visual perceptionBostonHoughton MifflinGoogle Scholar
Gigerenzer, G. 1996 On narrow norms and vague heuristics: ReplyPsychological Review 103 592CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gigerenzer, G.Goldstein, D. G. 1996 Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationalityPsychological Review 103 650CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gigerenzer, G.Todd, P. M.the ABC Research Group 1999 Simple heuristics that make us smartNew YorkOxford University PressGoogle Scholar
Gilovich, T.Griffin, D.Kahneman, D. 2002 Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgmentNew YorkCambridge University PressCrossRef
Ginossar, Z.Trope, Y. 1987 Problem solving in judgments under uncertaintyJournal of Personality and Social Psychology 52 464CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gluck, M. A.Bower, G. H. 1988 From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network modelJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 117 227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gluck, M. A.Bower, G. H. 1990 Component and pattern information in adaptive networksJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 119 105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammond, K. R. 1996 Human judgment and social policyNew YorkOxford University PressGoogle Scholar
Hau, R.Pleskac, T. J.Kiefer, J.Hertwig, R. 2008 The description-experience gap in risky choice: The role of sample size and experienced probabilitiesJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 21 493CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henrich, J.McElreath, R. 2003 The evolution of cultural evolutionEvolutionary Anthropology 12 123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hergenhahn, B. R.Olson, M. H. 2005 An introduction to theories of learningUpper Saddle River, NJPrentice Hall/PearsonGoogle Scholar
Hertwig, R.Barron, G.Weber, E. U.Erev, I. 2004 Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choicePsychological Science 15 534CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Juslin, P.Jones, S.Olsson, H.Winman, A. 2003 Cue abstraction and exemplar memory in categorizationJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition 29 924Google ScholarPubMed
Juslin, P.Olsson, H.Olsson, A.-C. 2003 Exemplar effects in categorization and multiple-cue judgmentJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 132 133CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Juslin, P.Persson, M. 2002 Probabilities from exemplars (probex): A “lazy” algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledgeCognitive Science 26 563CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D.Slovic, P.Tversky, A. 1982 Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biasesCambridge University PressCrossRef
Kahneman, D.Tversky, A. 1979 Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under riskEconometrica 47 313CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D.Tversky, A. 1996 On the reality of cognitive illusionsPsychological Review 103 582CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Knutson, B.Greer, S. M. 2008 Anticipatory affect: Neural correlates and consequences for choicePhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 363 3771CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lemaire, P.Siegler, R. S. 1995 Four aspects of strategic change: Contributions to children’s learning of multiplicationJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 124 83CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
List, J. A. 2003 Does market experience eliminate market anomaliesQuarterly Journal of Economics 118 41CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luce, R. D. 1959 Individual choice behaviorNew YorkWileyGoogle Scholar
Mata, R.Helversen, B. vonRieskamp, J. 2011 When easy comes hard: The development of adoptive strategy selectionChild Development 82 687CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mata, R.Helversen, B. vonRieskamp, J. 2010 Learning to choose: Cognitive aging and strategy selection learning in decision makingPsychology and Aging 25 299CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mata, R.Schooler, L. J.Rieskamp, J. 2007 The aging decision maker: Cognitive aging and the adaptive selection of decision strategiesPsychology & Aging 22 796CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Newell, B. R. 2005 Re-visions of rationalityTrends in Cognitive Sciences 9 11CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Opris, I.Bruce, C. J. 2005 Neural circuitry of judgment and decision mechanismsBrain Research Reviews 48 509CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Patalano, A. L.Smith, E. E.Jonides, J.Koeppe, R. A. 2001 PET evidence for multiple strategies of categorizationCognitive, Affective & Behavioral Neuroscience 1 360CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Payne, J. W. 1976 Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making: An information search and protocol analysisOrganizational Behavior & Human Performance 16 366CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Payne, J. W. 1982 Contingent decision behaviorPsychological Bulletin 92 382CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Payne, J. W.Bettman, J. R.Johnson, E. J. 1993 The adaptive decision makerNew YorkCambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rakow, T. R.Demes, K.Newell, B. R. 2008 Biased samples not mode of presentation: Re-examining the apparent underweighting of rare events in experience-based choiceOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 106 168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rapoport, A.Wallsten, T. S. 1972 Individual decision behaviorAnnual Review of Psychology 23 131CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rescorla, R. A.Wagner, A. R. 1972 A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcementBlack, A. H.Prokasy, W. F.Classical conditioning II: Current research and theory64New YorkAppleton-Century-CroftsGoogle Scholar
Restle, F.Greeno, J. 1970 Introduction to mathematical psychologyReading, MAAddison-WesleyGoogle Scholar
Rieskamp, J. 2006 Perspectives of probabilistic inferences: Reinforcement learning and an adaptive network comparedJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition 32 1350Google ScholarPubMed
Rieskamp, J. 2006 Positive and negative recency effects in retirement savings decisionsJournal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 121 233Google Scholar
Rieskamp, J. 2008 The importance of learning in probabilistic inferencesJudgment and Decision Making 3 261Google Scholar
Rieskamp, J.Busemeyer, J. R.Mellers, B. A. 2006 Extending the bounds of rationality: Evidence and theories of preferential choiceJournal of Economic Literature 44 631CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rieskamp, J.Hoffrage, U. 1999 When do people use simple heuristics, and how can we tellGigerenzer, G.Todd, P. M.the ABC Research GroupSimple heuristics that make us smart141New YorkOxford University PressGoogle Scholar
Rieskamp, J.Hoffrage, U. 2008 Inferences under time pressure: How opportunity costs affect strategy selectionActa Psychologica 127 258CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rieskamp, J.Otto, P. E. 2006 SSL: A theory of how people learn to select strategiesJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 135 207CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rolls, E. T. 1999 The functions of the orbitofrontal cortexNeurocase 5 301CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saad, G.Russo, J. E. 1996 Stopping criteria in sequential choiceOrganizational Behavior & Decision Processes 67 258CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sanfey, A. G.Loewenstein, G.McClure, S. M.Cohen, J. D. 2006 Neuroeconomics: Cross-currents in research on decision-makingTrends in the Cognitive Sciences 10 108CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schall, J. D. 2001 Neural basis of deciding, choosing, and actingNature Reviews: Neuroscience 2 33CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schooler, L.Hertwig, R. 2005 How forgetting aids heuristic inferencePsychological Review 112 610CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schultz, W.Dayan, P.Montague, P. R. 1997 A neural substrate of prediction and rewardScience 275 1593CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shanks, D. R. 1991 Categorization by a connectionist networkJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition 17 433Google Scholar
Shepard, R. N. 1990 Mind sights: Original visual illusions, ambiguities, and other anomalies, with a commentary on the play of mind in perception and artNew YorkFreemanGoogle Scholar
Shrager, J.Siegler, R. S. 1998 SCADS: A model of children’s strategy choices and strategy discoveriesPsychological Science 9 405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sieck, W. R.Yates, J. F. 2001 Overconfidence effects in category learning: A comparison of connectionist and exemplar memory modelsJournal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition 27 1003Google ScholarPubMed
Siegler, R. S.Shipley, C. 1995 Variation, selection, and cognitive changeSimon, T.Halford, G.Developing cognitive competence: New approaches to process modeling31Hillsdale, NJErlbaumGoogle Scholar
Simon, H. A. 1956 Rational choice and the structure of the environmentPsychological Review 63 129CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Smith, V. L.Walker, J. M. 1993 Monetary rewards and decision cost in experimental economicsEconomic Inquiry 31 245CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stout, J. C.Busemeyer, J. R.Lin, A.Grant, S. J.Bonson, K. R. 2004 Cognitive modeling analysis of the decision-making processes used by cocaine abusersPsychonomic Bulletin and Review 11 742CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sutton, R. S.Barto, A. G. 1998 Reinforcement learning: An introductionCambridge, MAMIT PressGoogle Scholar
Svenson, O. 1996 Decision making and the search for fundamental psychological regularities: What can be learned from a process perspectiveOrganizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes 65 252CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thorngate, W. 1980 Efficient decision heuristicsBehavioral Science 25 219CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomasello, M. 1999 The cultural origins of human cognitionCambridge, MAHarvard University PressGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. 1972 Elimination by aspects: A theory of choicePsychological Review 79 281CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A.Kahneman, D. 1974 Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biasesScience 185 1124CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ungemach, C.Chater, N.Stewart, N. 2009 Are probabilities overweighted or underweighted, when rare outcomes are experienced (rarely)Psychological Science 20 473CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Volz, K. G.Schooler, L. J.Schubotz, R. I.Raab, M.Gigerenzer, G.Cramon, D. Y. von 2006 Why you think Milan is larger than Modena: Neural correlates of the recognition heuristicJournal of Cognitive Neuroscience 18 1924CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Vranas, P. B. M. 2000 Gigerenzer’s normative critique of Kahneman and TverskyCognition 76 179CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Weber, E. U.Johnson, E. J. 2009 Mindful judgment and decision makingAnnual Review of Psychology 60 53CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Weber, E. U.Shafir, S.Blais, A.-R. 2004 Predicting risk sensitivity in humans and lower animals: Risk as variance or coefficient of variationPsychological Review 111 430CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Widrow, G.Hoff, M. E. 1960 Adaptive switching circuitsInstitute of Radio Engineers, Western Electronic Show and Convention, Convention Record 4 96Google Scholar
Wood, S.Busemeyer, J.Koling, A.Cox, C. R.Davis, H. 2005 Older adults as adaptive decision makers: Evidence from the Iowa gambling taskPsychology and Aging 20 220CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Yechiam, E.Busemeyer, J. R. 2005 Comparison of basic assumptions embedded in learning models for experience-based decision makingPsychonomic Bulletin & Review 12 387CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Yechiam, E.Busemeyer, J. R. 2006 The effect of foregone payoffs on underweighting small probability payoffsJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 19 1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yechiam, E.Busemeyer, J. R.Stout, J. C.Bechara, A. 2005 Using cognitive models to map relations between neuropsychological disorders and human decision making deficitsPsychological Science 16 973CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×