Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-swr86 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-23T12:15:43.818Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

27 - Currency Crises and Crisis Interactions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 June 2012

Peter J. Montiel
Affiliation:
Williams College, Massachusetts
Get access

Summary

This chapter attempts to bring together much of the material covered in the rest of the book by analyzing the links among currency crises, sovereign debt crises, and banking crises in emerging economies, both analytically and by conducting case studies of both the 1994 Mexican and 1997 Asian crises. These more recent crises are contrasted with the fiscally driven international debt crisis of the 1980s that we discussed in Chapter 25 and are compared to the 1982 Chilean financial crisis that has been mentioned at various places in the book. The objective of this chapter is to illustrate how the three general topics treated in this book – fiscal and monetary management, management of the exchange rate, and management of the financial system – lie at the heart of the most severe macroeconomic crises that developing countries have faced over the past two decades.

The structure of the chapter is as follows. We begin in Section I with a brief review of the traditional analytics of currency crises, a type of financial crisis that we have discussed at various points in the book but have not treated separately up to now. In Section II, we broaden the analytical discussion to include liquidity crises, or “sudden stops” of capital inflows. These have figured prominently in recent emerging-market crises, but they were not featured in the traditional currency-crisis literature until recently. As we will see, these liquidity crises involve interactions among debt, banking, and currency problems.

Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alba, Pedro, Bhattacharya, Amar, Claessens, Stijn, Ghosh, Swati, and Hernandez, Leonardo (1998), “Volatility and Contagion in a Financially-Integrated World: Lessons from East Asia's Recent Experience,” unpublished manuscript, World Bank.
Alesina, Alberto, Prati, Alessandro, and Tabellini, Guido (1990), “Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy,” in Dornbusch, R. and Draghi, M., eds., Public Debt Management: Theory and History, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 94–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calvo, Guillermo (1988), “Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations,” American Economic Review, vol. 78, pp. 647–661.Google Scholar
Calvo, Guillermo, and Mendoza, Enrique G. (1996), “Reflections on Mexico's Balance of Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of a Death Foretold,” Journal of International Economics, vol. 41, pp. 235–264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chinn, Menzie (1998), “Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?” working paper 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, and Werner, Alejandro (1994), “Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 1, pp. 253–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K., and Wyplosz, Charles (1995), “Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks,” Economic Policy, vol. 21, pp. 249–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernald, John, Edison, Hali, and Loungani, Prakash (1998), “Was China the First Domino? Assessing Links between China and the Rest of Emerging Asia,” International Finance Discussion Paper 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Wei, Shang-Jin (1994), “Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies,” in Ito, T. and Krueger, A., eds., Macroeconomic Linkages: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 295–329.Google Scholar
Frankel, Jeffrey, and Wei, S.-J. (2004), “Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons,” in Aizenman, J. and Pinto, B., eds., Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), pp. 315–405.Google Scholar
Giavazzi, Francesco, and Pagano, Marco (1990), “Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management,” in Dornbusch, R. and Draghi, M., eds., Public Debt Management: Theory and History, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 125–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldfajn, Ilan, and Valdes, Rodrigo (1999), “The Aftermath of Appreciations,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 114, pp. 229–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haque, Nadeem, and Montiel, Peter J. (1999), “Long-Run Real Exchange Rate Changes in Developing Countries: Simulations from an Econometric Model,” in Hinkle, L. and Montiel, P., eds., Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries, New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 381–404.Google Scholar
Kaminsky, Graciela L., and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1998), “On Crises, Contagion, and Confusion,” unpublished manuscript.
Krugman, Paul (1979), “A Model of Balance of Payments Crises,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 11, pp. 311–325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loayza, Norman, and Lopez, J. Humberto (1997), “Misalignment and Fundamentals: Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Seven Latin American Countries,” unpublished manuscript, World Bank.
Montiel, Peter J., and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1999), “Do Capital Controls and Macroeconomic Policies Influence the Volume and Composition of Capital Flows? Evidence from the 1990s,” Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 18, pp. 619–635.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sachs, Jeffrey, Tornell, Aaron, and Velasco, Andres (1996), “Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995,” unpublished manuscript.
Steiner, Roberto (1995), “The Mexican Crisis: Why Did It Happen and What Can We Learn?” unpublished manuscript, World Bank.
Tanboon, Surach (1998), “An Analysis of the Thai Currency in Retrospect,” unpublished manuscript, Williams College.
Warner, Andrew M. (1997), “Mexico's 1994 Exchange Rate Crisis Interpreted in Light of the Nontraded Model,” working paper 6165, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Werner, Alejandro M. (1995), “The Currency Risk Premia in Mexico: A Closer Look at Interest Rate Differentials,” unpublished manuscript, International Monetary Fund.

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×