THE ROLE OF PUBLIC OPINION IN THE POLISH CRISIS

Public opinion and public opinion surveys played an important political role in the events of 1980–1982. Before 1980, public opinion as such had never played a major role in the Polish political process except through the medium of public protests, as in 1956, 1970 and 1976. With the creation of Solidarity and the opening up of Polish society after August 1980, public opinion was more directly heard both through Solidarity and through public opinion research. In fact, Solidarity was a necessary vehicle for public opinion to have influence. As James Oliver (1969) has pointed out, in order for public opinion to have an impact, there need to be autonomous groups to aggregate and process societal demands into a program that can serve as an alternative to that of those in power. Without such groups, the demands are processed within the political system, reducing the pressures of public opinion on the authorities. Solidarity provided such a channel.

At first Solidarity was able to point to public opinion polls as evidence of the overwhelming support that the movement enjoyed. Indeed, in the early exciting months of the strikes and the formation of the union, Solidarity was exceedingly popular. During 1981, however, a number of factors contributed to the erosion of the early unanimity in Polish society, putting the public opinion data up for grabs in the political arena.