In summer 2008, natural disasters in China and Myanmar brought tragedy to hundreds of thousands of individuals and families. After centuries of technological and industrial advance, it is sobering to reflect on how poorly equipped we were to manage the devastation wrought by these catastrophes. We still lack early warning systems, efficient response mechanisms, and – as the suffering of the Burmese people in particular cruelly reminds us – the global solidarity and coordination needed to deliver help where and when it is most needed.

We know there will be more catastrophes of this kind in future, we know that their number and intensity is likely to grow and we know that they will increasingly be due to the acts of human beings. But they will not always involve horrific headlines and torrid photographs of hurricanes and tsunamis. More commonly, they will be cumulative and unspectacular. People who are already vulnerable will be disproportionately affected. Slowly and incrementally, land will become too dry to till, crops will wither, rising sea levels will undermine coastal dwellings and spoil freshwater, species will disappear, livelihoods will vanish. Occasional cataclysms will exacerbate these trends. Mass migration and conflicts will result. Only very gradually will these awful consequences reach those whose lifestyles and activities are most to blame. Climate change will, in short, have immense human consequences.