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31 - Whither integrated assessment? Reflections from the leading edge

from Part IV - Policy design and decisionmaking under uncertainty

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 December 2010

Hugh M. Pitcher
Affiliation:
Joint Global Change Research Institute 8400 Baltimore Ave., Suite 201 College Park, MD 20740, USA
Gerald M. Stokes
Affiliation:
Joint Global Change Research Institute 8400 Baltimore Ave., Suite 201, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Elizabeth L. Malone
Affiliation:
Joint Global Change Research Institute 8400 Baltimore Ave., Suite 201 College Park, MD 20740, USA
Michael E. Schlesinger
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Haroon S. Kheshgi
Affiliation:
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering
Joel Smith
Affiliation:
Stratus Consulting Ltd, Boulder
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye
Affiliation:
US Environmental Protection Agency
John M. Reilly
Affiliation:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tom Wilson
Affiliation:
Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto
Charles Kolstad
Affiliation:
University of California, Santa Barbara
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Summary

Introduction

After 10 years of Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment (CCI & IA) workshops under the aegis of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), it is appropriate to consider what progress has been made and what additional tasks confront us. The breadth and scope of the papers in this volume provide ample evidence of the progress. In this paper, we consider the additional tasks before us as a community interested in applying integrated assessment to a wide range of research and policy issues.

Integrated assessment (IA) has arisen and continues to grow in significance because it provides insights and understanding not available from research and analysis conducted from the perspective of individual disciplines. Increasingly, the questions arising from such integrated consideration of issues pose questions new to the respective disciplines, thus driving disciplinary research also.

The particular approach to integrated analysis of historic interest to EMF emphasizes solutions to the problems that have implications for both program direction and major resource allocation. Because of this, individuals who have, or represent, major political and economic interests in the outcome subject the results and components of the models to an unprecedented level of scrutiny. This scrutiny will affect not only model components but the structure of feedbacks and the tools for measuring impacts as well.

Type
Chapter
Information
Human-Induced Climate Change
An Interdisciplinary Assessment
, pp. 377 - 386
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2007

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References

Andronova, N. G. and Schlesinger, M. E. (2001). Objective estimation of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity. Journal of Geophysical Research 106 (D19) 22 605–22 612.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
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IPCC (2000). Emissions Scenarios: Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
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US Climate Change Science Program (2003). Strategic Plan for the US Climate Change Science Program, www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/default.htm
Webster, M. D., Forest, C., Reilly, J.et al. (2003). Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response. Climatic Change 61 (3), 295–320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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